TODAY’S WEATHER

☀️ We won’t see a repeat of yesterday’s warmth, at least in Scotland, but iit’ll still be a fine spring day. Glasgow and Edinburgh will both clear as the day goes on, reaching a maximum of 16 degrees in the east. Aberdeen will be a fair bit cooler. If you’re in London, though, it’ll be a scorcher, hitting 29 degrees by mid afternoon. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Ukraine and US sign minerals deal | ScotRail drink ban isn’t working | England goes to the local polls

📣 Ukraine and the US have finally signed a deal for access to Ukraine’s natural resources, in a deal which the US sees as compensation for its help in repelling Russia’s invasion.

Coverage of the deal references Ukraine’s “valuable rare earth minerals” although, as previously reported by Bloomberg, there are grave doubts those particular minerals exist in Ukraine.

But the deal does signal a thaw in relations between the two countries, potentially aided by a meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Rome at the weekend, before Pope Francis’s funeral. (BBC).

📣 There’s no evidence the alcohol ban on Scotrail has reduced anti-social behaviour, MSPs were told yesterday. The ban was introduced during the Covid pandemic to encourage people to keep their face masks on while travelling, but was then kept in place.

But Joanne Maguire, ScotRail’s managing director, confirmed staff had been told not to stop people from drinking, as there was no legal basis for them to do so. British Transport Police have not recorded any offences under the bylaw that bans drink on trains and in stations. (Daily Record) (The Scotsman)

• More than 70 organisations have called for the Scottish Government to act more urgently over alcohol deaths in Scotland. (The Scotsman)

📣 Parts of England go to the polls today for local and mayoral elections, and a by-election in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency in Cheshire. It’s the first big electoral test since Labour won its landslide last year. (BBC)

IDEAS
Why net zero is such a tough sell

🗣️ When I was editing a newspaper, I was always acutely aware that a good front page could boost sales nicely. An arresting image, a great story, a strong “puff” (the panel selling that day’s features): all could add a percent or two.

The reverse was also true: a bad front page could cost thousands. A few in a row could cost someone (me) their job.

My worst-ever front page faux pas? Putting a picture of environmental campaigner Greta Thunberg, looking grumpy behind a mask, on the front of The Scotsman on 2 November 2021, during the COP26 ecological summit in Glasgow. Sales took an unprecedented dip that day. There were irritated letters from readers, too.

A lesson was learned: civic Scotland might be rolling out the red carpet for the world, but in truth - and in private - either couldn’t be bothered with Thunberg’s brand of faintly hysterical campaigning, or wasn’t that interested in the environmental story. Or both.

Not a reason for a responsible title to ignore the story, of course: just find better ways to tell it, which we went on to do. The environmental catastrophe is still the story of our time - even if other urgent stuff looks pretty pressing .

But all this is, I hope, an illustration of the dangers in assuming that others share your concern, and rank it above all else. In truth - and politicians also ignore this at their peril - people care more about what’s immediate to their lives.

This brings us to Sir Tony Blair’s comments on net zero earlier this week, in which he said net zero was “doomed to fail” because it asked people to make sacrifices for no clear benefit.

A portion of the current Labour establishment has been fuming at his intervention, saying it undermines the Starmer administration and vindicates opponents in today’s local elections. On cue, Kemi Badenoch said she “felt vindicated” for whatever view she holds on the matter, while Nigel Farage claimed Reform UK was “winning the argument” on net zero.

The Tony Blair Institute retorted that the UK government was already pursuing its preferred policy approach, which “is the right one”, hoping to placate those in Labour branding the intervention disloyal or - worse - influenced by big oil.

But all this is to miss the point. As my experience showed anecdotally, so polling data shows more empirically: Blair’s instincts on net zero chime with a conclusion that broader public opinion has been moving towards for some time.

• First, public scepticism towards net zero is growing. Climate change may be accepted as fact by 84% of us, with human activity also accepted as the cause by 67%. But support for spending on environmental goals has slipped since 2020, with more people now thinking it should be cut rather than increased.

• The net zero cause’s importance, relative to other issues, has slipped.

• And, even if we continue to push for net zero by 2050, most people think we will probably (46%) or definitely (28%) fail. (All data from YouGov)

And, frankly, even if the public cared more, the odds they were paying attention to a Tony Blair foreword in a policy paper are… remote.

All that suggests what happens today in England’s local elections, and that tricky by-election, will have little to do with net zero, and everything to do with how people feel about issues more closely related to their daily existance today. That’s still not likely to be good news for Labour, but for very different reasons.

And beyond the inevitable noise of today’s elections, the challenge of how to cut emissions and sell the necessary change - not just in the UK, but around the world - remains.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The gangland war has kicked off again: a van was set alight in Glasgow, after a lull in a wave of attacks across the central belt. (The Sun)

📣 The Scottish Conservatives haven’t given up in their quest to get Maggie Chapman removed from the Scottish Parliament’s equalities committee: now they’re calling on John Swinney to sack the SNP MSPs who backed her this week in a vote. (Holyrood)

AROUND THE UK

📣 Jurors were shown footage which prosecutors say is the moment the iconic Sycamore Gap tree was cut down. They also heard voice notes said to have been shared between Daniel Michael Graham and Adam Carruthers after the tree’s felling made global news. Each deny two counts of criminal damage, and the trial continues. (🎥See the video at the BBC)

📣 Talks on the Birmingham bin dispute resume today: rubbish has not been collected in parts of the city for more than seven weeks. (Birmingham Live)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 Spain’s Prime Minister is growing increasingly frustrated in his quest for answers about that power blackout earlier in the week. He’s furious that the Spanish grid operator has not given a clear explaination of what happened. (The Times £)

🌎 Israel is facing a “national emergency” as wildfires threaten Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu warned. The fires are the worst in years. (Guardian)

🌎 Amid warnings that “Christmas may be cancelled” in the US because of a lack of Chinese-made goods, Donald Trump has said US kids may get “two dolls instead of 30” but China would suffer more in a trade war. (AP)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 Tesla has opened a search for a new CEO to replace Elon Musk, with profits and the company’s share price both tanking. (The Wall Street Journal has the exclusive)

💰 Scottish Friendly, the Glasgow-based mutual, saw the second-highest sales in its history last year. (The Scotsman)

💰 Airlines are warning Europeans are avoiding travel to the US amid concerns about border and visa rules, and wider economic instability. Demand from the US for flights to Europe has, however, grown. (FT £)

💰 Meta has warned users in Europe could face a “materially worse” experience after the European Commission decided the social media giant was not complying with the Digital Markets Act. (BBC)

• Meta and Microsoft both posted results that beat market expectations, driving AI and cloud computing-related stocks higher in late trading. (Reuters)

SPORT

⚽️ Barcelona and Inter Milan served up a treat last night in the Champions League: a six-goal thriller that leaves the tie perfectly balanced, and a display from Barcelona’s teenage forward Lamine Yamal that was laced with genius. (BBC) (🎥 See the highlights)

⚽️ No, Rangers will not offer Celtic a “guard of honour” before Sunday’s Old Firm match at Ibrox. (Scotsman)

⚽️ Mixu Paatelainen has returned to Scottish football - with the former Dundee United and Hibs striker and manager taking up a new role as Sporting Director at Edinburgh club The Spartans. (The Sun)