US and Russia meet, Europe divided

PLUS: Scotland's public pay gap, new exams boss needed, and a huge night for Celtic

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👋 Good morning! It’s Tuesday 18 February 2025, and I’m Neil McIntosh, editor of The Early Line. It’s great to have you here.

Sent from Edinburgh every weekday at 7am, The Early Line brings you essential news and thought-provoking views on Scotland, the UK, and the world. Understand your world, free of pop-ups and clickbait.

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🥶 Today’s weather: Drivers beware. A weather warning for snow and ice covers the Borders and a big chunk of west and central Scotland, including Glasgow, where it’ll be a wet start to an overcast day. Edinburgh is (just) outside the warning area, but will be overcast until mid afternoon, and chilly. Aberdeen has a wet, overcast day ahead. If you’re in London, you’re in luck: it’ll be crisp and bright. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
US and Russia meet, without Ukraine or Europe

📣 The US and Russia meet in Riyadh today for talks on the war in Ukraine, with Ukraine itself, as well as its European neighbours, frozen out, and concerns about concessions already offered by Donald Trump. The US goal is a bigger summit between Trump and Putin, although Russia wants to also move quickly towards “normalisation” of relations between Russia and the US. (AP)

Despite calls for unity, European leaders left their talks in Paris last night divided. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he was a “little irritated” by Keir Starmer’s offer to consider using UK troops in a Ukraine peacekeeping force. (Daily Mail)

  • It’s worth reading the full terms of the contract put to Ukraine by Donald Trump: they demand a higher share of GPD than Germany’s First World War reparations. They also contained no security guarantees. (Telegraph)

  • French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to both Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelinsky last night to brief them on the Paris summit. (BBC)

  • Starmer calls for US “backstop” to help keep the peace in Ukraine (BBC)

  • Europe’s front pages this morning (Guardian)

📣 Sandy Peggy, the nurse who has taken NHS Fife to an employment tribunal after she was suspended in a dispute with a transgender doctor who used female changing facilities, has been called to another, separate disciplinary hearing by the health board at which she could lose her job.

The hearing - now rescheduled - came despite the employment tribunal not having concluded: it has been adjourned until July, after 10 days of evidence. (The Scotsman)

  • John Swinney is under pressure to offer a view on safe spaces for women, after claims the Scottish Government is “hiding” behind the sub judice rule. (Daily Mail)

📣 Concerns are growing about Pope Francis’ health after doctors said they were treating a “complex clinical picture”. He is said to be stable in hospital, where he “read and worked” yesterday. (Sky News)

  • The Pope is seriously worried about his health, and is rushing to tie up loose ends ahead of the battle to succeed him. (Politico)

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IDEAS
Reactions to a new world order

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is so far proving more nightmarish for US allies and friends than adversaries.”

🗣️ “The rift between Europe and the United States is deep and historic,” says Le Monde in a leader. “Can the US and Europe work together to achieve a ‘just and lasting’ peace in Ukraine, while at the same time waging an ideological war?” Europe’s economic and military support for Ukraine must remain the priority, says the newspaper, so that it is in a position of strength when real negotiations begin. But, it adds: “In Munich, Europe's blindness came to an abrupt end. From now on, the security of the continent depends essentially on Europe itself, and its ability to maintain cohesion.” (Le Monde, in English)

🗣️ Keep calm, says Matthew Parris. America may draw back from its extreme opening position. “Far from signalling a policy of appeasement, this Munich, unlike its earlier namesake, signals an awakening understanding of the need to prepare for war if war is to be avoided.” (The Times £)

🗣️The Wall Street Journal echos points made here yesterday but adds its own sting. It notes Europe’s “dilatory contributions to the Ukraine war” mean it’s “chosen to put itself in the position of taking others’ decisions about its security rather than its own”. It has praise for JD Vance’s “bracing warning” that Europe will get left behind if it over-regulates AI. And it adds, approvingly: “Europeans aren’t accustomed to being told so bluntly by U.S. officials that Europe is impoverishing itself with its dirigisme, but someone had to say it”. (The Wall Street Journal £)

🗣️ Neither the US nor the EU are right on the Ukraine war, thinks Socialist Worker. “This is a major shake-up of the liberal capitalist order that the US built after the Second World War,” the title says. “But they are all united in wanting to boost arms spending—and delusions about their own importance in the world.” The US, it says, wants to focus on China. But the EU is too disunited and dysfunctional to become a world power in its own right. “For the left, the choice isn’t between the US and EU. Our task is to exploit the divisions to fight our rulers—and their imperialist system that drives war.” (Socialist Worker)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 A gap in public pay has opened up between Scotland and the rest of the UK: pay in Scotland is now 4.5% - 6.5% higher than equivalents in England. The Institute of Fiscal Studies, which has compiled the data, has not found any evidence of increased retention due to the more generous pay deals. (Read the report) (Times £) (Express)

📣 Scottish Water workers are likely to take strike action after voting to reject a pay offer of 3.4%. The GMB union accused bosses of “taking home record bonus payments” while neglecting fair pay rises. (STV)

📣 Wanted: a new leader for Scottish exams: the outgoing Chief Executive of the Scottish Qualifications Authority took on a tough job, but did it badly, writes the Herald’s James McEnaney. The rebranded SQA, Qualifications Scotland, desperately needs change from the top. (The Herald)

UK & THE WORLD

🌎 A Delta Air Lines jet flipped upside down while landing in Toronto: all 80 people on board survived, although 18 people suffered injuries. (Reuters)

🌎 Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is under fire for attacking diversity policies and climate activism at a conference for right-wing leaders from around the world in London. (Independent)

🌎 A judge could rule today to sharply curtail the activities of Elon Musk’s DOGE - Department of Government Efficiency - teams. (Reuters)

🌎 The Trump administration has applied pressure on Romania to remove travel restrictions on Andrew Tate, a controversial influencer accused of human trafficking, rape and forming a criminal gang. Tate and his brother are also accused of trafficking and rape in the UK: Bedfordshire police are seeking to extradite them. (Independent)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰An attempt by Chancellor Rachel Reeves to intervene in a Supreme Court case on car loans has been defeated. The case, which could have big (expensive) repercussions for lenders, will go ahead in April. (BBC)

💰An aquaculture company has bought Sanda Island, off the Mull of Kintyre, and plans to build a salmon farm there. They’ve also bought Campbeltown shipyard and other properties tup support a tourism business in the area. (Daily Business)

💰Brodies has a new chair - partner Iain Rutherford has been with the firm for 22 years, having joined as a trainee in 2003. (Insider)

SPORT

⚽️ Celtic’s match against Bayern Munich is a huge one tonight: arguably the Scottish side’s biggest of the season, given the league here is all but won and continental progress in these circumstances would be a colossal success. As you’d expect, Hoops manager Brendan Rodgers insists “anything is possible” ahead of the game they enter 2-1 down. Harry Kane is expected to recover from a facial injury from the weekend. (Guardian)

⚽️ Motherwell have appointed an interesting new manager: Michael Wimmer, a German coach who once managed Austria Wein. He’s said to favour a high-pressing, high-tempo style: things could be fun at Fir Park. The Herald also notes his time in Austria gave him experience of coping at a club on the brink of financial collapse, with fans in revolt, but the fans loved him by the end. (The Herald £)

👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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