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In your briefing today:

• US officials arrive in Ukraine to discuss new proposals to end the war with Russia - plans which could be seen as Ukrainian capitulation

• EVs to milkshakes: The 15 tax changes that could be on Rachel Reeves “smorgasbord” of tax changes next week.

• Scotland continues to celebrate, with demands for bank holidays, flights to the US - and honours for Steve Clarke

📣 US military officials have arrived in Ukraine to for talks on ending the war with Russia. The team is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv when he returns from a trip to Turkey later today. (BBC)

The talks come amid reports that US and Russian officials have drafted a plan that, in exchange for Moscow halting its invasion, would require Kyiv to surrender territory and severely limit the size of its military. The plan is likely to be viewed as surrender in Kyiv. (Guardian)

• Pressure is mounting on Zelensky to take action over a corruption scandal that some observers say presents the biggest threat to his government since Russia’s invasion. (AP) (Guardian)

📣 The UK Covid Inquiry publishes findings from its second module today - covering governance and decision-making across the UK, including by Boris Johnson’s government in London, and Nicola Sturgeon’s in Edinburgh.

Writes Jim Reed: “‘Did the government serve the people well, or did it fail them?’ asked the lead counsel at the start of this part of the inquiry in 2023. Since then more than 7,000 documents have been made public from the time, including WhatsApp chats and emails, private diaries and confidential files.” (BBC)

• The hearings which formed the basis for the report today were held in January 2024: Sturgeon shed tears as she gave evidence, and faced criticism for deleting vast tranches of WhatsApp messages which would have shed light on decision-making at the time. (Express)

📣 After Scotland’s qualification for the World Cup, the cries have gone up: for a knighthood for Steve Clarke, and a bank holiday and late pub opening for the fans. Next summer could be quite something. (Daily Record) (Sun) (Scotsman)

• You’ll enjoy John MacLeod’s elegant recap of our mad Tuesday night (Mail)

• The players were still out partying in the centre of Glasgow last night (and who can blame them?) (Daily Record)

• The fans are now working on getting to the US next summer (Mail)

• Meanwhile, tiny Curaçao has made World Cup history by qualifying for the finals - it’s as if Dundee was a nation. They’re managed by former Rangers manager Dick Advocaat. What a tale. (Guardian)

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AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Bad news for Scottish Labour: their fortunes are rising and falling with those of Labour in London. Which means they’re broadly falling. Political scientists are calling it “cross-border political contamination”. (The Times £)

• Leading Labour figure John McTernan says it’s time for Starmer to go (New Statesman)

• In depth: Why Wales fell out of love with Labour (BBC)

📣 The consultation on plans to extend Edinburgh’s trams drew a huge response - 11,425 responses - and Stephen Jenkinson, the council’s transport and environment convener, said submissions would be “carefully considered”. But the plan will be going ahead, despite calls for it be abandoned entirely, he says: “We owe it to future generations to be bold and ambitious.” (The Scotsman)

📣 Roads were blocked and schools closed as snow and ice gripped the north of Scotland (STV)

📣 Angela Constance didn’t turn up to the Scottish Parliament chamber to answer an Urgent Question on claims she misrepresented Professor Alexis Jay’s comments around a grooming gang inquiry. (Holyrood) (Express)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 Donald Trump has signed legislation that compels his administration to release files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. (AP)

📣 Defence secretary John Healey issued a warning to Vladimir Putin after a Russian spy ship operating on the edge of UK waters directed lasers at RAF pilots. "We know what you're doing. And if the Yantar travels south this week, we are ready," he said. (Independent)

📣 As many as 50,000 nurses could quit the UK over the government’s immigration proposals, plunging the NHS into a huge workforce crisis, research suggests. Nursing leaders say the plans are “immoral” and treat skilled migrants as “political footballs”. (The Guardian has the exclusive)

📣 Transgender people could be banned from single-sex spaces based on what they look like, according to new equalities guidance. (The Times (£) has the exclusive)

📣 Nvidia, the world's biggest company, says its sales are soaring, in defiance of claims the “AI bubble” is ready to deflate. “There's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” said CEO Jensen Huang. “We see something very different.” (Mail)

IDEAS
EVs to milkshakes: The 15 tax changes that could be on Rachel Reeves ‘smorgasbord’ of changes

🗣️ Next Wednesday, Rachel Reeves delivers her budget: one that some wags are calling the most leaked in history.

Why so many leaks? Officials have been weighing up options. They had a fiscal hole to fill: they needed to brainstorm ways to fill it. Thus, we have a long list of yes, nos and maybes.

I’ve been trying to maintain a tally… so here are 15 measures that have been mooted, with a guess of likelihood marked out of 5 (where 5 is certainty, and 1 is ruled out), and links to actual reporting by way of evidence. Do let me know if I’ve missed any out.

1. Income tax & NI changes: 4/5 - The biggie. Shifts to the tax rate have been ruled out, as have threshold cuts. But a threshold freeze seems more likely, meaning more people will drift into higher tax bands. (Sky)

2. Pensions: 4/5 - big changes to pension lump sum taxation or pension tax relief have been ruled out. The “triple lock” is likely to stay. But Reeves could still remove salary sacrifice perks, which would raise money but make pension saving for current workers more expensive. (The Payroll Centre)

3. Landlord tax: 4/5 - National Insurance looks likely to be applied to rental income: landlords, already facing higher stamp duty costs, will feel the pain. (The Negotiator)

4. Mansion tax: 5/5 - Popular with Labour backbenchers, this could be applied as a council levy on sales of houses over £1.5 million, or even an annual 1% levy on homes over a certain threshold - say £2 million. She could also choose to alter council tax bands. (Independent)

5. A per-mile EV tax: 4/5 - A 3p-a-mile charge for EV drivers is being mooted to compensate for EV drivers not paying fuel duty. This will cause a furious row, with the average cost to each EV driver around £250 a year. (Guardian)

6. A cycle-to-work “tax”: 5/5 - This is more likely to take the form of removing high-end bikes from the cycle to work scheme, so “high earners in the Surrey Hills” can’t use the tax break for their carbon fibre frames. (Independent)

7. Changes to ISA taxation: 4/5 - Reeves could change tax breaks for cash-only ISAs, with the aim of diverting cash into shares - ideally British ones. It’s a move the UK’s tech entrepreneurs would like, although encouraging more playing of the markets could have its pitfalls. (Morningstar)

8. Bank taxes: 1/5 - Nah - Reeves is playing down talk of new bank taxes, as she wants UK banks to remain competitive. (Guardian)

9. More gambling taxes: 4/5 - Bookies warn of shop closures and relocation overseas (or, more of it) should these come to pass. But a two-tier system, with higher taxes for online gambling than for (less profitable, and at-risk) in-shop flutters, could come in. Horseracing may escape entirely. (FT £)

10. LLP tax changes: 3/5 - After rumours of a big tax raid on partnerships - and subsequent industry lobbying - it looks like these proposals will be watered down. LLPs may not end up paying full National Insurance, but maybe some. (FT £)

11. Fuel duty changes: 3/5 - A 5p/litre fuel duty cut has been in place since 2022. Ending that would raise more than £7 billion a year by 2029… but motoring lobby groups are warning of dire consequences if it goes. (Sun)

12. Inheritance tax changes: 3/5 - Labour has made moves on inheritance tax already, with its controversial “tractor tax” last year. It could choose to go again, creating a lifetime limit on gifts that can be passed on by someone while they’re alive. Tapered tax relief on gifts could also change. (Independent)

13. Wealth taxes: 2/5 - Greens and others are calling for a wealth tax, even if Reeves has ruled out changing income tax rates. (Independent)

14. Tourism tax: 3/5 - Already in place in Edinburgh, among other places, a tourism tax could see holidaymakers pay a nightly rate on stays. (Guardian)

15. Milkshake tax: 3/5 - Really a change to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy, Reeves could lower the threshold at which a drink is seen as sugary enough to qualify. The reduced sugar level would bring milkshakes into the mix - hence the name. (City AM)

👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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