In your briefing today:

📣 European leaders are considering how to retaliate after Donald Trump threatened steep tariffs against goods from nine countries in the EU and wider Europe, including the UK, who are opposed to a US takeover of Greenland.

The crisis is the worst to hit transatlantic relations in decades, and is a direct threat to the future of Nato. It also places billions in trade at risk, with - close-to-home - whisky producers among the first to warn of grave consequences.

But, overnight, there’s the suggestion the EU will try negotiating with Trump first, rather than reaching for retaliatory measures. Global leaders are, by chance, converging on Davos this week: talks on the sidelines of that conference are inevitable.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give a speech from Number 10 this morning, having spoken to Trump over the weekend.

📣 A high-speed train crash in Spain has killed at least 39 people in Spain, after carriages on a Madrid-bound high-speed train derailed and hit an oncoming train in rural Adamuz, near the city of Córdoba. More than 150 people have been injured. (Sur in English)

📣 The NHS has admitted a likely “causal connection” between patient infections and the water system at Scotland’s flagship Queen Elizabeth University Hospital.

Such a connection had long been denied. But, in a closing submission to the Scottish Hospitals Inquiry, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde said it now accepts that “on the balance of probabilities” some infections suffered by patients were linked to the hospital environment, “in particular the water system”. (STV)

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📣 First Minister John Swinney says Nigel Farage will try to scrap Holyrood if he becomes Prime Minister. In an interview, the First Minister said Reform “loathe” devolution and claimed direct rule from Westminster could be reintroduced if it comes to power. (The Daily Record has the exclusive)

📣 Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said he would release “the Salmond files” - from an inquiry into whether Nicola Sturgeon broke the ministerial code - if he becomes First Minister. (Scotsman)

📣 A “Traitor frenzy” has sparked a surge in visits to Scottish castles this winter. (Mail)

📣 Tory MP Andrew Rosindell has become the latest to defect to Reform. The shadow defense minister said "the time has come to put country before party”. (Sky News)

📣 China is expected to get permission for its controversial “super embassy” in London, despite security concerns. (Guardian)

📣 Donald Trump is selling permanent seats on his “board of peace”, intended to oversee Gaza, for $1 billion a shot, with non-payers getting only a three-year place. At least eight more countries say they’ve been offered a place: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an ardent Trump supporter, has accepted an invitation, as has Vietnam. Money raised will go towards Gaza, the White House says. (AP)

⚽️ It was an eventful Scottish Cup weekend with plenty of upsets to keep fans on the edge of their seats. The biggest scalp to be claimed was that of Hearts, who lost to Falkirk at Tynecastle on Saturday night. The Scottish Cup draw has thrown up some intriguing ties for the last 16, with the Cup holders, Aberdeen, facing Motherwell.

⚽️ Senegal beat Morocco to win the Africa Cup of Nations, but only after shameful scenes in which the Senegal players left the pitch after a late penalty was awarded to their opponents. After a 17-minute delay, Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz stepped up to take the spot kick - and executed the worst penalty you’ve ever seen. Senegal went on to win in added time.m (BBC) (🎥 Highlights)

🗣️ Any pretence is over: Donald Trump is entirely serious about acquiring - by transaction or, apparently, force - Greenland. And quickly.

As The Independent (£) points out in a leader, two weeks ago - after the United States seizure of the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their Caracas home - Keir Starmer and some other western leaders “devised an equivocation” that avoided criticising Trump for a flagrant breach of international norms.

The Greenland problem was on the radar, but another bland holding statement - that it was up to the Danes and the Greenlanders to decide what, if anything, should change - seemed obvious and good enough to delay things for years.

“Except that Mr Trump’s pace is different,” notes the Independent. And, on Saturday, he threatened tariffs on those nations which have, ever so gently, stood up to him over the future of the island. Suddenly, Europe finds itself in the US crosshairs - and Keir Starmer is caught in the worst of all possible worlds, it notes.

In the Mail, Andrew Neil (£) notes that “the moment Donald Trump thought his European allies were trying to thwart his desire to annex Greenland, he moved to punish them for having the temerity to defy him. In doing so, he has put the Atlantic Alliance on life support.”

He might not follow through, notes Neil. He’s not carried out some of his tarriff threats over the last year, on China and the EU. But his weekend threat was bigger and louder and so harder to wriggle out of. “As things stand, UK and EU exporters should reckon on facing high tariffs come summer. It is a frustrating, debilitating experience trying to do honest business with Trump's America these days. Many will understandably give up.”

But what, more widely, of Europe’s relationship with the US? “Europe’s quiet decoupling from America is becoming louder,” says The Economist (£) in a leader. The EU has its options, but in reality they are limited, and hard to coordinate among the block of 27 plus Norway, UK, Iceland and Ukraine.

There’s been much talk of the EU’s “big bazooka” weapon - the anti-coercion instrument (ACI), which allows the EU to respond to coercive behaviour in almost any way. It could, for instance, be used to restrict American tech firms, cancel bank licences or target American intellectual property. But that could also trigger tit-for-tat American moves, which is why, for now, the Economist thinks its use seems unlikely.

But there is anger in the corridors of European power. “In private, dismayed European officials describe Trump’s rush to annex the sovereign Danish territory as ‘crazy’ and ‘mad,’” reports Politico Europe, “and saying he deserves Europe’s toughest retaliation for what many see as a clear and unprovoked ‘attack’ against allies on the other side of the Atlantic.

“Senior European officials increasingly believe it’s time to face the truth that Trump’s America is no longer a reliable trade partner, still less a dependable security ally, and urgently look to the future,” Politico reports. “What needs to be done is an orderly and coordinated movement to a new reality.”

In a chance of timing, the world’s leaders - including a huge US delegation led by Trump - arrive in Davos this week for the World Economic Forum. Moves towards that new world order - whatever it is - will play out there over the next few days, and go a long way towards determining the future of Greenland - and the western alliance - for years to come.

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