TODAY’S WEATHER

☀️ It’s going to be sunnier and warmer today in Glasgow (nudging 24 degrees), Edinburgh and Aberdeen. London will hit 31 degrees today: pack water for the tube. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Iranian missile hits hospital | Winter fuel payments withdrawn for some | Royal Highland Show opens

📣 An Iranian missile hit southern Israel’s main hospital overnight, causing extensive damage and injuries, while other strikes hit high-rise buildings in Tel Aviv.

Israel also continued to bombard targets in Iran, with fresh strikes on nuclear facilities. Iranian state TV said there was “no radiation danger whatsoever” as a result of the attack. (AP) (Guardian live coverage)

• Donald Trump played down claims his supporters are divided over US involvement in Iran. “My supporters are more in love with me today, and I’m more in love with them, more than they even were at election time where we had a total landslide,” he insisted. (AP)

• Today’s Early Line takes a closer look at the Republican split on involvement in the Middle East. ⬇️

📣 Scottish winter fuel payments will not be universal, the Scottish Government has announced, with pensioners earning more than £35,000 seeing their payments recovered via the tax system, matching a move made by the UK government.

A universal payment had previously been proposed in Scotland, following the Westminster government's announcement of plans to cut winter fuel payments entirely. That policy has now been reversed. (BBC)

• SNP deny 192,000 Scots OAPs winter fuel cash (Mail)

📣 The Royal Highland Show opens in Edinburgh today: more than 200,000 visitors to Scotland’s vast celebration of its agricultural sector will bask in warm weather as they take in the prize livestock, exhibitions, farm machinery, food and drink.

But the show will be overshadowed this year by political uncertainty surrounding farming, not least trade deals that may result in significant imports from countries with lower animal welfare standards than the UK. (The Scotsman)

Expect political leaders to pay their respects to Scottish farmers in the next day or two: First Minister John Swinney is expected to attend once again, while the Scottish Conservatives’ Russell Findlay will promise multi-year funding for farmers in the party’s election manifesto. (Farmers Guardian £)

• Getting ready for the Royal Highland Show (The Edinburgh Reporter)

• The Royal Highland Show

IDEAS
Trump’s supporters wrestle with the prospect of another war in the Middle East

🗣️ The US Republican party has been shaken several times since Donald Trump returned to the White House. On immigration raids, on tariffs, on Musk’s DOGE, there have been metaphorical gasps, and dissent. But its biggest - and most consequential - rift is opening up right now: over Trump’s apparent, and increasing, willingness to get involved in Israel’s attack on Iran.

Witness this discussion between two right-wing firebrands in Ted Cruz, Republican senator for Texas, and Tucker Carlson, the pundit notorious for spreading conspiracy theories and cosying up to Putin’s Russia. The discussion went viral late yesterday because their row exposes the faultlines in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement to which both belong.

Things really got going when Carlson asked the senator how many people live in Iran. Struggling, Cruz shot back that he didn’t “sit around memorising population tables”. When Cruz also failed to break down the specifics of Iran’s ethnic populations, Carlson accused him of not knowing “anything about Iran […] You're a senator who is calling for the overthrow of the government and you don't know anything about the country!”

As Cruz, presciently, says at the start of the interview, there’s always been two wings of foreign policy thought in the Republican party - one interventionist, one isolationist. The battle in that interview - and more broadly today - is over which one wins.

The upset is particularly acute because, in Trump, the isolationist wing thought they’d won, and been elected on an isolationist, “America First” platform after the “forever wars” of Iraq and Afghanistan, the latter spanning 20 years of expense and human loss.

As USA Today explains: “Now the sentiment that Trump helped cultivate of keeping America out of foreign entanglements is being directed squarely back at him by high-profile supporters within the MAGA movement.”

The case for intervention is put well by a Wall Street Journal leader (🎁 free to read), which underscores the importance of foreign policy to US presidents, whether they want it or not. “Joe Biden’s Presidency began to decline the day he abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban,” the title’s editorial board writes. “American deterrence collapsed, and U.S. enemies saw their moment to strike in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“Donald Trump now has an opportunity to reverse Mr. Biden’s Afghan legacy and restore deterrence if he helps Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program.”

But a reluctance to get involved in foreign wars is one of the cornerstones of the MAGA movement, one of the uniting features for that tribe. Commentators - not just Carlson - have been left alarmed by Trump’s refusal to rule out siding with Israel and joining military action. His recent comment that “I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I want to do,” prompted grave warnings.

The New York Times quoted Candice Owens, the conservative YouTuber, suggesting Trump was betraying the anti-neocon ideology that had helped bring it together “Trump just fractured his base, I believe he just fractured his base,” she said. “Effectively, MAGA was a declaration of war on neocons, right? On the people who always come up with a reason for us to send our sons and daughters overseas.”

On X, Charlie Kirk - another podcaster, and founder of the Turning Point USA movement - warned: “No issue currently divides the right as much as foreign policy. I’m very concerned based on every I’ve seen in the grassroots the last few months that this will cause a massive schism in MAGA and potentially disrupt our momentum and our insanely successful Presidency.”

And Steve Bannon, the former Trump advisor who remains a looming figure on the US right, appeared on another of Carlson’s shows to warn it would “blow up the coalition” and distract Trump’s work to deport illegal immigrants.

Beyond the ideological divide that has opened up in his electoral coalition, it’s also likely Trump is getting wildly divergent advice on how to proceed. Semafor flags three very different views from leading Republican voices, from hawkish to cautious.

All that could explain why Trump is waiting, and watching, despite reports that he’s signed off on a plan to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Even for an isolationist President, military action in a distant land could have a big impact at home.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The Scottish Government has been given a deadline to act on the UK Supreme Court’s ruling on biological sex, or face further legal challenges, amid claims of “extraordinary pushback” after the landmark ruling. (Guardian)

📣 The BBC has shed more than 50 jobs in Scotland over the last year as part of a drive to save £700 million across the UK. BBC Scotland has made high-profile changes to its output over the period, with plans to cancel the long-running soap River City announced, and The Nine news show axed. (The Herald has the exclusive)

📣 Loganair’s famous beach landings on Barra are being disrupted by a “mystery” weather phenomenon, which is holding tides in the bay that doubles as a turnway for its small aircraft. (The Scotsman)

AROUND THE UK

📣 The Nursing and Midwifery Council, which regulates more than 800,000 nurses and midwives, wrongly approved more than 350 “fraudulent” or “underqualified” nurses to work in the UK, a review has found. There are also “serious” cultural and operational difficulties within the organisation, and some failings which pose a risk to the public. (The Independent has the exclusive)

📣 Air pollution is killing more than 500 people a week, the Royal College of Physicians says. (The Guardian)

📣 Students should be ready to be shocked and offended by ideas and views they encounter at university, according to the man in charge of ensuring free speech on UK campuses. (BBC)

SPORT

⚽️ Scottish clubs learned their early European opponents yesterday and the ties that emerged were tough.

• Rangers, keen to avoid one of the stronger sides in the draw, and potentially searing heat in an away leg, will face… Panathinaikos, the Greek Super League runners-up. It’s a tough assignment and, yes, Athens will be hot in late July. Russell Martin couldn’t have wished for a tougher start. (Daily Record)

• Hibs will face the team owned by Anders Holch Povlsen, Denmark’s richest man, who also happens to be counted as Scotland’s richest man - FC Midtjylland. (The Scotsman)

• Dundee United will face UNA Strassen of Luxembourg in their first Conference League qualifier. (STV)

🏉 Scottish Rugby CEO Alex Williamson is bullish about the organisation’s financial future, as it reduces its deficit and invests in Murrayfield Stadium. The organisation is investing millions to improve the ground, including £2 million on its notorious toilets. (Offside Line)