TODAY’S WEATHER

☀️ It’ll be a bright and largely sunny day across Scotland, although we won’t have to contend with the high temperatures expected down south. Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will all have a pleasant day. London will get close to 30 degrees. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Israel steps up strikes as US mulls attack | Swinney and Forbes grab Scotland 2050 headlines | Huge lottery win

📣 There were “intense” Israeli airstrikes on Tehran overnight after US President Donald Trump had called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and mulled his own strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites. He also warned Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that the US knew where he was but had no plans to kill him… “at least not for now”. (AP)

• The US is considering its own strike against Iran’s nuclear sites (WSJ) (CBS News)

• Mark Stone: We are witnessing a real-time version of Trump’s “maximum pressure diplomacy” (Sky News)

• Israel said it struck a centrifuge site in Tehran in its overnight barrage (BBC)

• What is a centrifuge site? (BBC)

• Peter Beaumont: Netanyahu talks of regime change in Iran. What he means is regime destruction. (Guardian)

📣 A cross-section of Scotland’s decision-makers gathered in Edinburgh for the Scotland 2050 conference yesterday: the subsequent media coverage picked up on the First Minister’s call for independence, and Kate Forbes’ comments about online abuse.

• John Swinney said Scotland is being given policy scraps from the UK table instead of flourishing on its own two feet. It was “total folly” to accept the position, he said. (The Scotsman)

• He was accused of trying to “buy off” rebels threatening a leadership challenge after calling for independence. (Mail)

• Kate Forbes joked she was “unsuccessfully” trying to juggle bringing up her children and doing her Cabinet job, and warned misogynistic abuse would put a generation of women off entering politics. (Mail) (Scotsman)

• More thoughts below ⬇️

📣 Someone from Ireland is waking up with a sore head this morning… they scooped all of the £208 million EuroMillions jackpot last night. (STV)

IDEAS
Star acts and strange disassociations as Scotland’s leaders look towards 2025

🗣️ It was not, as Wings Over Scotland put it, “the worst day out ever”.

Far from it.

But the Scotland 2050 conference was a day for those with a particular taste for “hearing views on complicated and non-crowd pleasing subjects,” in the perfect phrasing of Paddy Fletcher, a fellow attendee and co-CEO at the Port of Leith Distillery. His blog post is worth a read.

Here are six (other) things I took from the day.

1. Indy. John Swinney’s call for an independent Scotland was put as mildly as you could imagine, without any detail on how, or when. (A vagueness called out by Kenny Farquharson in The Times (£)). Yet it came to dominate the subsequent media coverage.
   That coverage felt far removed from the debate in the room which, with the exception of one questioner from the floor, barely raised constitutional change.
   Emerging, blinking, into the George Street sunlight, the coverage already on our phones felt like a case study in why Scottish political debate appears to run aground on the same (constitutional) issues.
   The politicians sow the seeds, and the media - largely working as a pack - does the rest, with all other debate - more nuanced, yet the stuff of day-to-day life - lost.
   I walked home a little troubled by that, mulling on the role this newsletter (and my previous jobs) have played in amplifying this punch-and-judy show. I’m not sure what the answer is.

2. Blair and Forbes provided the star power. Think tanks also provided heft. Kate Forbes and Cherie Blair were - and I’m sure other speakers will forgive me - luminescent in the middle of the day. Their discussion on women in public life allowed them space to talk more relatably than a policy discussion would, but the humanity and intellectual firepower shone through.
   Meanwhile, panellists from Scotland’s think tanks offered the sort of clarity and data-backed insight that makes them so valuable. A special shout out to Mairi Spowage from the Fraser of Allander Institute, who was the first person to raise AI: I’d nursed a fear nobody would.

3. Housing was the (real) dominant subject of the day. The issue that came up time and again - both on stage and over coffee - was the state of Scottish planning, and the difficulties of building houses in Scotland. That may because housebuilders sponsored the conference… but it could also be a real problem that demonstrates, at one level, broader dysfunction in the Scottish public sector. We can scream “housing emergency” all we want: it’s clear that without planning reform, little will change.

4. Anas Sarwar. The Labour leader’s ability to speak in a winning, fluent way, notes-free, remains his superpower. You might think it’s a basic skill for a politician, yet the talent remains rare enough to stick out. He, like many of the politicians there yesterday, are so much more at home in this sort of setting than they are in one which involves being shouted at by an interviewer on TV or radio. John Swinney and Alex Cole Hamilton also won points by being, on stage, much as they are in person. All three looked like they were starting a long election campaign.

5. Yet few did the vision thing. Swinney and Sarwar nudged towards answering the 2050 challenge of creating a forward-looking vision for Scotland… but many others struggled to talk their way past the problems of today. That could be simply a lack of vision - or it could be that we’re beached on seemingly intractable problems. It would be lovely - but perhaps optimistic - to think the Holyrood elections would be a contest of ideas on how to break that stalemate.

6. Not in the room. Neither the Greens nor the Conservatives took up options to attend, the audience was told. That’s a shame. Their presence - especially that of Russell Findlay - might have helped shake a certain too-comfortable consensus which settled across the room.
   Reform UK wasn’t mentioned - not at all - until just before lunch, in passing while discussing misogyny in politics, and by a member of the audience.
   Earlier, there had been an expression of surprise that Scots weren’t protesting in the streets at the Scottish Parliament’s failures. The thought that they might be protesting at the ballot box - Reform polled 26% in Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse only a couple of weeks ago - wasn’t expressed.
   Next year’s Scottish elections could come as a terrible surprise to some, if yesterday’s attitude was indicative of something broader.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The SNP has cost Glasgow billions, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury claims today, saying the SNP’s centralisation of power in Holyrood, and its cuts to council funding, have “had a direct impact on jobs and growth”. (Herald)

• Darren Jones MP writes: “From 2014 to 2022, the Greater Manchester economy grew by almost 50%. If the Glasgow City Region had achieved that same level of growth, it would be £7.7bn larger today.” (Herald)

📣 Doctors are concerned young people from the poorest areas of Scotland are not getting the HPV vaccine that can help prevent cancer. (BBC)

📣 Orkney Islands Council has ended a two-year investigation into opportunities for “alternative governance” outside the UK, or even as part of Norway. (BBC)

AROUND THE UK

📣 The UK inflation rate was announced just as today’s Early Line was being sent… it held steady at 3.4%, despite expectations it would fall slightly. (BBC)

📣 MPs have voted to decriminalise abortion in England and Wales, the biggest change to reproductive rights in almost 60 years. (Guardian)

📣 The woman found stabbed to death in London home following a gas explosion has been named as Annabel Rook, 46, a charity worker who supported refugees. (Independent)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 Air India has cancelled or delayed multiple international flights involving its Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner fleet since last week’s crash that killed more than 270 people. It’s blaming grounded aircraft, technical issues, restricted airspace and heightened safety profiles. (Independent)

🌎 Japan recorded a record trade deficit as its exports were hit by Trump’s tariffs. Car exports dropped by 25% year on year. (AP)

🌎 Russia might be the most sanctioned country in the world, but you cans till find Kellogg’s cornflakes, Bonne Maman jam and Brewdog beer on sale in its supermarkets. How so? (Sky News)

SPORT

⚽️ New Rangers manager Russell Martin is closing in on two signings - Bournemouth full-back Max Aarons and Peterborough winger Kwame Poku. (The Sun)

⚽️ Rangers, Hibs and Dundee United learn their European qualification opponents later today. (BBC)