THE BIG STORIES
Reeves plans huge cuts to spending and benefits | More Ukraine talks | Council tax decisions due

📣 Rachel Reeves is seeking billions of pounds in cuts ahead of her Spring Statement on March 20. Government departments have been asked to identify their 20% lowest priority spending areas, according to ITV News.

But the most controversial moves are likely to be around benefits, with plans being drawn up to overhaul disability and health benefits to “significantly reduce” the number of people who are judged as unable to work.

This is a huge cost - and one that has soared through the Covid era, as we report in the Ideas section below. (ITV News had the exclusive)

• John Swinney has attacked the mooted cuts, saying they will harm the vulnerable, joining a chorus of disapproval from opposition politicians and the third sector. Changes to Westminster budgets could also have knock-on impact on spending in Scotland, with the Scottish Government faced with a choice of mirroring cuts, or putting up taxes. And it’s inevitable that changes to benefits will become a huge issue in the run-up to next year’s Scottish elections. (The Scotsman)

📣 European leaders will hold more crisis talks on Ukraine today, after French president Emmanuel Macron said he would discuss extending his country’s nuclear deterrent to protect the continent. Europe is in a “new era,” he said in a televised statement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will join the talks. (BBC)

📣 The final batch of Scottish council tax rises will be set today with those already declared showing some of the biggest increases in two decades. Orkney is, so far, out in front with a 15% rise: Falkirk, debating today, could opt for as much as 15.6%. The other councils making decisions are East Dunbartonshire, Highland and Inverclyde. The average across the country has been 9%, so far. (BBC)

IDEAS
Are sickness benefits at the heart of our malaise?

🗣️ Fraser Nelson illustrated the scale of the UK’s sickness benefit spending yesterday: curbing spending to pre-Covid levels would cure the UK’s problems: defence spending, economic growth, high taxes, the lot.

To explain: the former Spectator editor was researching the UK’s unusual spike in sickness benefit claimants. This grew through the Covid era, and is more or less unique to the UK: other countries with lots of Covid didn’t see the same surge in sickness benefit claimants. This is a known problem, reported on last year - you can read more about it from the IFS here.

And it’s a big surge: 2,000 new claimants a day, says Nelson, the total bill coming in at £65 billion a year now - 25% up on pre-Covid numbers - and £100 billion by 2030 on current trends.

It’s not just the £12 billion extra being spent on benefits each year. Those people aren’t working, and paying taxes - if they were, that would generate £30 billion a year in tax. Add the two together: £42 billion a year we don’t currently have.

Moreover, says Nelson, you achieve the ultimate progressive good: you get people back in productive work, rather than being ill at home.

What’s skirted over is why all these people are unable to work. Nelson notes the system doesn’t make it easy to get back to work: he notes the previous government stopped re-assessing people’s eligibility, and so the money just keeps on coming. The government could also stop so many people from qualifying in the first place by simply making the rules a bit tougher.

There may be complexities. I wonder if, for instance, the difficulties of getting basic healthcare for ailments is a particularly British problem that keeps people unwell, for longer. And making ill people poorer would be a terrible thing few politicians would want to do.

But with Rachel Reeves now facing an unpalatable choice (or combination) of tax hikes, big spending cuts or even more borrowing, trying to cure the UK’s benefit problem may assume both greater urgency, and political support. Nelson’s theory feels like one of many discussions she - and we - may need to have.

🗣️Thanks to everyone who voted in our poll yesterday asking: What's the worst rebrand? Here are the results… and it’s clear we don’t think much of Elon Musk’s rebrand/ruination of Twitter:

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💰 Abrdn's war on vowels (16%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✈️ BA's tailfin art (3%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✉️ The Post Office becomes Consignia (24%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🆇 Musk kills Twitter, unveils X (45%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🍊 Tropicana's packaging disaster (1%)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The UK government has confirmed it will ban new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea, but has said it will ease the tax burden on the sector. (Guardian)

📣 Three more councillors are expected to join, or defect to, Reform UK today: the party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, is in Glasgow where he’s expected to announce the new recruits, one of whom will be Claire Mackie-Brown, a former Conservative now sitting as an independent on Falkirk Council. The party still does not have a Scottish leader, but has been performing well in polling here. (The Scotsman)

📣 John Swinney says he’s “not sympathetic” to relaxing the alcohol ban for football fans at games, despite police and football authorities being open to discussions. (The Mail)

📣 Finance secretary Shona Robison and transport secretary Fiona Hyslop will not be seeking re-election next year, becoming the two most senior members of the government to announce they’re standing down. (Holyrood)

📣 Reporters got a look inside the Citizen’s Theatre as it prepares to re-open this summer after seven years and £40 million. But the roof will no longer leak onto performers, there are beautiful new public spaces, and the temperamental revolving door has gone. It’s great to see. (The Herald £) (The Scotsman)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 The Co-op says it’s “here for you for life”: it’s tried to make sure that is literally true by unlawfully blocking rival supermarkets from opening stores near its own - 107 times. (BBC)

📣 Ofcom has been “flooded” with more than 800 complaints about the Brits on ITV, with most focussed on Sabrina Carpenter’s dancing, and Charli XCX’s dress. (Mail)

📣 Global sea ice fell to an all-time low in February, a consequence of the warming atmosphere, say scientists. (Guardian)

📣 A snapshot of the chaos gripping US government agencies: employees at the nation’s public health agency, the CDC, who were laid off two weeks ago were urged to return yesterday. “Read this email immediately” was the subject line on an email summoning them back, “after further review and consideration”. (AP)

📣 An “explosive” insider memoir about Facebook, written by the social media giant’s former director of global public policy, will be published next week. (AP)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 Scotland’s business optimism is “in reverse”, the EY ITEM Club has warned as it cut its forecast for Scottish growth this year, to 0.9% from 1.3% last quarter. (The Herald £)

💰 Optimism, at least of the economic kind, may be stronger in Germany soon, with chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s “whatever it takes” plan to unleash defence spending and overhaul German infrastructure adding up to the largest economic stimulus plan the country has seen since WW2. (FT £)

💰 Home buyers in England and Wales are scrambling to get their deals done before the end of the month: delay could cost them thousands in stamp duty, when the tax’s thresholds change. (BBC)

SPORT

⚽️ Rangers are in Istanbul for tonight’s game against Jose Mourinho’s Fenerbahce in terrible form, but at least with key players announcing themselves fit for the game.

Rangers’ interim boss, Barry Ferguson, knows his side is in for a tough night against an attacking side that makes a nonsence of claims Mourinho only produces defensive sides. “We're not going into this blind,” says Ferguson. “We're coming up against a very good team with very good players. And in my opinion, a top manager.” (Daily Record)

• Liverpool’s win over PSG last night will go down as the definition of “smash and grab” in the big book of cliches… (Guardian) (Last night’s results)

🎆 Rangers and Celtic have had their ticket allocations cut for cup games at Hampden as punishment for their fans’ use of pyrotechnics. (Daily Record)

🏉 Looking forward to the weekend, and Scotland v Wales at Murrayfield, Zander Ferguson says the game is a “must-win” for the hosts after back-to-back defeats by Ireland and England. And Wales will come to Edinburgh with nothing to lose, a fair bit to prove, and an upturn in performance levels under interim coach Matt Sherratt. (The Scotsman)