THE BIG STORIES
Bank’s gloom puts the pressure on Reeves

📣 The Bank of England halved its growth forecast for the UK yesterday as it cut interest rates to 4.5% in an attempt to stimulate the economy. It warned that growth was weak, and productivity “tepid”, with cost-of-living pressures growing again.

The gloomy forecast piles the pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, whose plans for growth sit at the heart of the Labour programme for government. Indirectly, they also pose another headache for Anas Sarwar, who faces the Scottish Parliamentary elections next year likely without a growing economy to boost his case.

But he’s not panicking, according to one commentator.

• “Staglation” fears as Bank of England cuts growth forecast (The Guardian)

• Back to the 70s nightmare (Daily Mail)

• Britain is inexorably heading for bankruptcy (David Frost, The Telegraph £)

• Why Scottish Labour isn’t panicking (Chris Deerin, The New Statesman £)

📣 Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar “went nuclear” (say several outlets) yesterday at First Minister’s Questions, challenging John Swinney to back a Westminster drive to build more small nuclear power stations in England and Wales. “The next generation of small nuclear reactors could revolutionise our energy market,” he said.

Swinney responded that his government would “power on” with renewables, and accused Sarwar of adding uncertainty for investors. (Holyrood)

• UK pledges to open up new sites for mini nuclear power stations (Reuters)

• Starmer goes nuclear (I know) in hunt for long-term growth - Chris Mason’s analysis of Labour’s strategy in England and Wales (BBC)

📣 Nicola Sturgeon has passed the SNP’s vetting process to stand again as a candidate in next year’s Holyrood election, despite remaining under investigation in the Operation Branchform probe. The news has sparked surprise within the SNP, while the former First Minister is not revealing if she intends to stand. The Herald has the exclusive (£).

IDEAS
From the weeklies: the race for AI supremacy, Gove on a Labour insurgent, and the dumb war that will return

🗣️ The race to AI supremacy is about more than just technology - it’s about controlling the future, writes Bruno Maçães in a fascinating (to me, at least) cover story in this week’s New Statesman. His essay delves deep into what just happened in AI - you’re recall The Early Line’s coverage from last week (£) of Chinese company DeepSeek upsetting the apple cart by producing AI that’s good, and much cheaper, than the big-budget US competition.

He builds out from that shock, in Silicon Valley and Wall Street and beyond, to discuss what the vaulting ability of AI means for the world. And, in doing so, he produces a terrific explainer.

Of the tech race, he writes: “The point is not to create a super intelligence you keep in a giant data server. The point is to release it and watch it become the world brain.”

And, he writes, whoever creates the world brain gets to set the rules by which it - and by extension all its users - think, giving them extraordinary power over how the world thinks: “The engineering power has set the rules in advance and alone enjoys singular access to those rules. Hackers call this God Mode.” And that’s a very powerful thing indeed, if you have some ideas to spread. (The New Statesman £)

🗣️ Spectator editor Michael Gove awards himself the cover story (and why not?) to riff on Morgan McSweeney, the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff. This - former Conservative minister writes about Labour policy - ends up being much more interesting than it sounds.

McSweeney made headlines last weekend because of his starring role in Get In, the book by Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund about Labour’s path back to power.

Gove credits McSweeney as the brains behind that return but says he’s been disappointed by ministers’ actions since getting their new jobs last summer. Rather than be insurgents - as Gove thinks McSweeney is - they are returning to conservative, elitist, cliquey comfort zone. “The Whitehall establishment,” writes Gove, “has also Taken Back Control”. (And remember Gove’s own battles, especially in Education, with that establishment).

Labour’s retreat has allowed new insurgents - most notably Reform - to rise. So the answer for McSweeney and his allies, suggests Gove, “is to be the insurgency once more”. Starmer might find that deeply uncomfortable, but he may find the alternative - a thrashing at the polls - even worse. (The Spectator £)

🗣️ The Economist zooms in on Donald Trump’s tariffs: could the “dumbest trade war in history” also be the shortest, now he’s not followed through on tariffs for Canada and Mexico?

Don’t get your hopes up, the newspapers says in a leader. It’s more likely that the President is only just getting started. And if his goal is to create a low-tax, reregulated business paradise in the shape of the United States, he needs to find the money from somewhere - and tariffs, although they won’t provide it all, will provide some.

The impact on the global economy, it says, would be profound, with the heaviest price borne by America’s nearest neighbours. (The Economist £)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The second of those delayed ferries, the Glen Rosa, could end up eight years late, an MSP has suggested. Its delivery is already confirmed as delayed until September this year. It would only take a further six-month delay to reach the unwelcome milestone. Given form, you wouldn’t bet against it. (The Scotsman)

📣 A good use for old Christmas trees: a huge volunteer effort will use them to shore up (no pun intended) endangered sand dunes at Lossiemouth (BBC)

AROUND THE UK

📣 TV chef Gino D’Acampo faces multiple allegations of “inappropriate and intimidating behaviour” over 12 years. Dozens of people have described experiences with D’Acampo as “unacceptable”, “distressing” and “horrendous”. He denied the allegations and said they were “deeply upsetting”. (ITV News)

📣 A third of Conservative voters have switched to Reform as Nigel Farage’s party tops the polls. Kemi Badenoch’s new, hardline immigration policy is seen as a response to her party’s crisis. (The Independent)

📣 The Gambling Commission has accidentally handed over thousands of sensitive documents to lawyers acting for media tycoon Richard Desmond, in what’s being described as an “unprecedented blunder”. (The Guardian)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 The extent of Donald Trump’s cuts to USAID are becoming clear: he plans to cut “all but a fraction” of the agency’s jobs, officials say, potentially leaving only 300 workers out of 8,000 at the administration. Details are scant, but would likely have a huge impact on relief and aid operations around the world. (AP)

• Halt in US aid leaves 500,000 tons of US food aid in limbo or storage (Reuters)

🌎 Trump has also announced sanctions against the International Criminal Court for what he says is its “targeting” of the U.S. and Israel. He signed an executive order accusing the ICC of “illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel.” The order puts visa and financial sanctions on people working on ICC probes of U.S. citizens or allies.

🌎 North Korean troops in Kursk have been withdrawn after heavy losses, according to South Korea’s spy agency. The North Korean troops were said to be unprepared for warfare in unfamiliar terrain, and have been “particularly vulnerable” to drone attacks by Ukraine. (The Guardian)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 The founder of sportswear brand Castore says its deal with Rangers was “transformational” in helping the company grow to become a “£1 billion sportswear empire” because of its global fanbase. Tom Beacon made the comments on the Secret Leaders podcast: it’s written up in The Herald. (Secret Leaders podcast on Spotify) (The Herald £)

SPORT

⚽️ It’s cup weekend in Scotland and England this weekend, meaning a smorgasbord of football on free-to-view TV. And the fun starts tonight!

Armchair fans have a choice of viewing: Scott Brown’s Ayr United play Hibernian in the Scottish Cup 5th round (Tonight, BBC Scotland channel, 7.45pm), while Manchester United play Leicester City in the FA Cup fourth round (Tonight, STV/ITV1, 8pm).

You don’t need me to tell you there’s the potential for an upset in both games. The question is: which to watch?

We’ll offer our usual full guide to the weekend’s armchair viewing in tomorrow’s Party Line, sent only to paid subscribers… go on, you know an upgrade makes sense… 😉

🏉 The Six Nations continues this weekend, with Scotland meeting Ireland at Murrayfield: The Scotsman predicts the team, while Graham Bean has an interesting feature on the psychologist helping Scotland prepare. His first sentence serves as a match preview, an explanation for the psychologist’s help, and a warning: “When you lose 10 times in a row to the same team it’s probably fair to say that they’ve got inside your heads.” Indeed so. (The Scotsman)