TODAY’S WEATHER

☁️ Another mixed bag: in most parts, you’ll want your waterproofs. Glasgow will see rain at various points during the day, while Edinburgh will most likely only see rain in the early to mid-afternoon. Aberdeen is likely to be dry, while London will also be dry, and a little less hot than of late. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Trump mulls regime change | World reacts to strikes on Iran | North Sea oil reserve claims | Syringe attacks in France

📣 US President Donald Trump has again raised regime change in Iran following US military strikes against Iran over the weekend. His suggestion, made overnight, came despite US insistence earlier that its interest was only in disrupting Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Writing on the Truth Social platform, Trump clamed the attacks hit “bullseye” and caused “monumental damage”. (BBC Live Coverage) (Guardian) (Truth Social)

• In retaliation, Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, which would shut off 20% of the world’s oil and gas… but also critically damage its own economy. (Mail)

• The US has asked China - which depends heavily on oil that comes via the Straits - to help stop them being blocked. (BBC)

• The world reacts to the strikes: from Gulf states to the Vatican, many call for a return to diplomacy. (AP)

• John Swinney said the world “must pull itself back from the brink”. (Herald)

• Financial markets are expected to shift away from risk and towards safer assets because of increased tensions in the Middle East, although the initial reaction has been muted. (Bloomberg)

• Pakistan condemned Donald Trump for the Iran bombing… less than 24 hours after saying he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for defusing its recent crisis with India. (AP) (BBC)

📣 Not entirely unrelatedly, a report claims up to 7.5 billion barrels of oil and gas, worth £165 billion, could still be produced from the North Sea - 3.2 billion barrels more than current estimates. (Scotsman)

• Iain Macwhirter: Leaving oil and gas in the ground was always a pipe dream (Times £)

📣 Police are investigating a wave of “syringe attacks” across France during the country’s annual street music festival on Saturday evening, after posts on social media called for women to be targeted during the festivities. 145 people reported being pricked: 12 suspects were arrested. (Le Monde) (Guardian)

IDEAS
What they’re saying about Trump’s strikes on Iran

The US strikes on Iran came early in our morning yesterday, rendering much of the Sunday analysis of the situation past the point. The commentators have caught up now: here are a few notable voices.

🗣️ The Daily Mail wraps up some reaction from Britain’s defence establishment.

• Lord Ricketts, a former UK national security advisor, said retaliation by Iran is “likely”, adding: “This is a major strike against their key strategic assets and so I think we have to expect that they will try to get back at American bases, American economic installations, possibly even America’s allies.”

• Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, of the Chatham House think tank, said Trump had taken an “incalculably” high risk. “If Iran attacks US assets and especially US personnel in the region, if the US is dragged further into direct conflict, if this launches a new era of terrorism, if this leads to more rather than less stability, then the cost to a President who has staked his success on staying out of war and delivering peace will be high.” (Daily Mail)

🗣️ Not all voices condemn the strikes.

• In a leader, The Times says the “civilised world owes Israel and the US a debt of gratitude”. “Iran is run by a coterie of bloodthirsty extremists with a track record of sponsoring terrorism, an openly declared genocidal ambition to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, and a stockpile of enriched uranium that is large, hidden, and growing. The United States and Israel could not sit on their hands and wait and see what the Ayatollah might do with it.” (The Times)

• Columnist Jake Wallis Simons brands the bombing “the single greatest intervention on behalf of global peace we have seen in our lifetimes,” saying “it goes without saying that the world is a much safer place when we woke up this morning than it was when we went to bed last night.

  “Israeli intelligence had revealed that the Ayatollah’s plan was to produce a set of many small nuclear bombs. What are the chances that they would not have been fired at Paris, New York and London by Iran or her proxies?” (Telegraph £)

• The Wall Street Journal says the attacks create an opportunity “for a more peaceful Middle East, if the nations of the region will seize it”.
  “Military conflict is unpredictable and Iran may retaliate, no matter how self-destructive that would be,” it adds. “If the regime values self-preservation, it will give up its nuclear ambitions and stand down.” (🎁WSJ - free to read)

🗣️But others have branded the strikes foolish, even illegal.

• In a leader, the Financial Times calls Trump’s action “a dangerous step into the dark” which was barely justified after “a few weeks of diplomacy”. It fears escalation in the Middle East, which could draw in energy assets in the region, and a renewed charge towards a nuclear bomb by Iran, to create a deterrent. “The Trump administration has allowed Netanyahu […] to sideline diplomacy and drag Trump into a war he has wanted for a decade,” it says. (FT £)

• The Guardian also condemns what it calls “an illegal and reckless act”, warning it may be weeks or months before Iranian retaliation plays out. “In rejecting diplomacy and choosing war […] the US has delivered a resounding blow to the architecture of global affairs […] the cost of this reckless act may not be fully felt or comprehended for decades.” (Guardian)

🗣️This could become part of something far bigger, whether the US wants it or not.

• In the New York Times, Thomas Friedman says war with Iran is part of a struggle between those who see the world benefitting from trade, cooperation and “more decent, if not democratic, governance” versus those who resist those trends “because conflict enables them to keep their people down, their armies strong and their thieving of their treasuries easy.”
  “Does President Trump understand whose side of this global struggle Putin is on? Iran and Russia are close allies for a reason,” he writes. There is an opportunity to aid Ukraine as he is aiding Israel, he says. “It is all the same war.” (🎁 New York Times - free to read)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The Principal of George Watson’s College in Edinburgh has hit out at politicians who “delight in the demise of independent schools”. Lisa Kerr said her school is worth £45 million a year, and 580 jobs, for the economy. (Mail)

• There are fresh reports that children who attend private schools are barred from joining state-school patients in ward classrooms at the Royal Hospital for Children and Young People in Edinburgh. (Times)

📣 Hundreds of people marched through Glasgow to call for an end to “blade culture”, led by the parents of stabbing victim Kory McCrimmon. (The Sun)

📣 The normally quiet streets of Dunoon were transformed into a racetrack over the weekend, as the Argyll Rally sped through the town. (BBC)

AROUND THE UK

📣 The Mounjaro weight loss drug is now available to NHS patients in England from today, although only for those who meet strict criteria. (BBC)

📣 The Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police says he’s “shocked and frustrated” by the prospect of protests, planned for today, in support of Palestine Action - the group expected to be proscribed as a terrorist organisation today. (BBC)

📣 TalkTV presenter James Whale says he is “in my last couple of weeks”: he’s been living with kidney cancer since being diagnosed in 2020. (Independent)

SPORT

⚽️ Rangers hold an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) today to ratify £20 million of investment in the club: Celtic, reckons Keith Jackson, “will be glued” to events on the other side of Glasgow, as Rangers’ new ownership group makes its first public appearance. (Record)

⚽️ More speculation that Celtic are ready to look to Japan once again, and sign striker Shin Yamada. (The Sun)

⚽️ AEK Athens are close to a deal for Rangers striker Cyriel Dessers (The Sun)

🏉 Finn Russell has signed a contract extension at Bath. It’ll keep him at the English champions until June 2028. (The Offside Line)