THE BIG STORIES
Europe scrambles to unite over Ukraine | Water bills | Conclave is the big Bafta winner

📣 It has been a tumultuous few days in global politics after the Munich Security Conference, in which it became clear the US is both withdrawing its support for Europe’s security and unilaterally taking on negotiations with Russia over Ukraine. I attempt to pick some of the bones, and five lessons, out of events later in today’s edition. In the meantime…

• Sir Keir Starmer has said he’s willing to deploy UK troops in Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force. “We are facing a once-in-a-generation moment for the collective security of our continent,” he writes in The Telegraph. “This is not only a question about the future of Ukraine – it is existential for Europe as a whole.” (BBC) (Starmer’s piece: Telegraph - registration required to read it)

• European leaders convene in Paris today at an emergency security summit in an attempt to offer a united front in the face of the US decision to open talks on Ukraine without them. (BBC)

• The talks between the US and Russia will begin tomorrow in Saudi Arabia. (CNN)

📣 Pay and bonuses to Scottish Water executives will be a hot topic in Holyrood this week. The publicly owned utility won an exemption from pay rules from the Scottish Government in order to pay £242,000 in bonuses and benefits to three executives in 2022/23. The executive bonus bill increased to £329,000 in 2023/24. The numbers emerge just as water bills are due to go up by 9.9% from April to allow for investment. (The Herald has the exclusive)

• Previously: Scottish Water improved its performance in 23-24, but missed some of its own targets, according to its regulator. (Water Magazine)

• More background: The regulator has had its own problems: a scandal around lavish spending on luxury goods and business class flights (BBC)

📣 Vatican-set thriller Conclave won four Baftas last night, including best picture, while The Brutalist - the epic about an immigrant architect working in post-war America - also won four, including best director and leading actor. (Guardian) (🎥 Watch the awards on the BBC)

IDEAS
The weekend Europe saw the world had changed

🗣️ Kissinger, quoted above, could easily have been talking about the mess Europe finds itself in over Ukraine.

After years of half-hearted support for Ukraine and dithering over commitments to its defence from the Russian invasion, the continent’s leaders are shocked to find themselves being relegated to the sidelines of peace talks between Russia and the US. Ukraine itself may also not get a look-in.

Europe’s security, no less, will be shaped by others.

The term “the world has just changed” is overused. But what has just happened was certainly a big shift in our perception. Things changed, over time, over years. We just found out how far they’d moved over the last three days. Keir Giles had the best long read on it on Saturday, in the FT. The short version: Russia has become more aggressive while the US has been disengaging from Europe for years. Europe has been complacent, but now must rearm - or face the consequences.

Here’s five things I think we can conclude after the Munich Security Conference, along with some supporting links. I don’t offer a view on the rights and wrongs… just a perspective on where things are.

1. We’re about to spend a lot more on defence. Germany only recently agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Starmer pledged 2.5% for the UK. Trump demands 5%. Even reaching 2.5% will require cuts, given our economic state. Taxes, benefits, triple-locked pensions, foreign aid, shrimp farms in Bangladesh (see today’s Sun front page): all will be under scrutiny. That’ll have an impact on devolved spending, too. Some things will have to give.

   • How much do nations spend on defence? (The Independent)

2. Russia is about to gain a lot more power in Europe. Paul Sonne writes in The New York Times that a withdrawal of US support for Europe or - worse - the US siding with Russia would hand Putin a far greater victory than anything he could have hoped for in Ukraine. My aside: the European public’s high appetite for peace in Ukraine may mean they don’t care about the morality of appeasing Putin as much as some political leaders. The alternatives to short-term peace are a tough sell.

   • Putin has long wanted more power in Europe. Trump could grant it (🎁New York Times gift link)

3. The global right is rising. In Germany, the far-right AfD is gaining support. In France, the government is paralysed, while even Scotland's politics are shifting, with Reform poised to do well next year. A detail from that Sunday Times’ (£) nightmare poll for Labour yesterday: more Scots favour Trump's actions than Starmer or Kemi Badenoch. The Scottish public seems to approve of the chaos Trump has unleashed.

   • Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, has become more popular as she became more radical. The Economist’s (£) 

4. There’s a lot more upset to come. If you’re interested in how the US is going to negotiate on pretty much everything in the coming few years, do read all of JD Vance’s remarks in Munich.
   If you’re a completist, you might also want to read the full text of another of his speeches, to the AI summit in Paris, on regulation.
   They paint a picture of an administration willing to interfere in local politics, break down firewalls between policy areas, and cut nakedly mercantile deals on issues once seen as matters of principal.
   None of this would have surprised anyone paying attention to last year’s election campaign, but it appears to have caught Europe’s political establishment cold.

5. What next? Hurried talks, for sure: Macron is organising a summit, to which the UK is already signed up. Starmer may think there’s a role for the UK in bridging between the US and Europe, although that matters little if the US thinks Europe doesn’t count.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Anas Sarwar’s chances of becoming First Minister are “fading fast,” according to Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert. His comments came as a poll in the Sunday Times found Labour was heading for its worst election result since devolution. (The Scotsman)

📣 Reintroducing wolves to the Highlands could help the UK hit climate targets by reducing the red deer population, in turn allowing native woodland to expand. Wolves were eradicated from Scotland 250 years ago. (Press & Journal £) (Read the paper)

📣 Port Ellen on Islay is one of the UK’s hottest neighbourhoods, according to a Sunday Times list. (Sunday Times)

AROUND THE UK

📣 Rightwing figures from around the world are gathering in London today at an event co-founded by Canadian psychologist and author Jordan Peterson. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage will be attending the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) conference, alongside 4,000 others. (The Guardian)

📣 UK Special Forces blocked all 2,000 asylum claims from Afghan commandos from units that had fought alongside British soldiers against the Taliban. (BBC)

📣 Government plans to build 1.5m homes are unrealistic say house builders: there aren’t enough construction workers to do the job. (The Independent has the exclusive)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 A third of UK businesses plan to cut staff this year through redundancies or reduced recruitment because of the increasing costs of employment, according to new data from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. (Independent)

💰 Small business confidence has also taken a tumble: it’s now at the lowest level since the pandemic. (Daily Business)

💰 The UK’s request for access to encrypted data on Apple devices has been branded “a foreign cyberattack waged through political means” by two US politicians. They are calling for the US to enforce sanctions if the UK does not back down. (BBC)

SPORT

⚽️ Rangers steadied the ship yesterday with a 3-1 win in Edinburgh against Hearts, although it took two own goals from the unfortunate Jamie McCart to get the job done. Hearts dominated the ball, had more chances, and were disappointed not to get a penalty. (BBC)

• 🎥 Yesterday’s football highlights from the BBC: Scotland | England

⚽️ Attention now switches to Celtic’s big game away to Bayern Munich tomorrow night: manager Brendan Rogers says his side can cause the German giants some problems, despite being 2-1 down from the first leg. (The Sun)