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Wednesday 29 October 2026
In your briefing today:
Chancellor John Healey delivers his first budget today. One headline already: standing charges on gas bills are to go
Scottish housebuilding has hit a ten-year low amid the country’s homelessness crisis
Derek McInnes returns to Tynecastle with Rangers tonight for the first time since his summer switch
TODAY’S WEATHER
THE BIG STORIES
Standing charges to go in Healey’s first budget | Israel hangs in the balance | Scots housebuilding hits a low
📣 Chancellor John Healey delivers his first budget today: the first headline is already out, announcing that he plans to remove standing charges from household gas bills. That will likely reduce bills for many, but increase them for heavy users.
The budget is also expected to introduce new taxes on Britain’s banks and bookmakers, devolve power and spending from Westminster, and raise the minimum wage. (BBC)
What to expect in today’s budget - later in today’s briefing ⬇️
Healey delivers his speech at 12.30 today.
📣 Israel’s elections hang in the balance this morning with neither of the two main party blocs on track to reach a majority in the Knesset. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is on track to become the biggest single party in the parliament, but that may be scant consolation: the “change” focused bloc led by his former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is not far behind, and analysts see the results so far as a “very, very bad night” for Netanyahu. The final totals won’t be known until later tomorrow.
Netanyahu has been buoyed by the latest projections (Times)
Israel’s President, Isaac Herzog, will face a difficult choice: who to pick first to attempt to assemble a government. (New York Times)
📣 Scottish housebuilding has fallen to the lowest level since 2014-15, with only 18,028 new homes added to Scotland’s housing stock. And the number of vacant local authority homes has increased to 10,252 - including stock that is due to be demolished, or cannot be let because of its condition. Ministers are being accused of “having no plan to deliver the homes Scotland needs”. (Scotsman)
Figures show there were 41,443 homeless applications in the last year in Scotland, with 19,004 households living in temporary accommodation. Campaigners say “we are simply not building social homes fast enough, nor investing at the scale Scotland’s housing emergency demands”. (Daily Record)
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AROUND SCOTLAND
📣 Two Scottish politicians who were refused access to the West Bank and then detained were turned back because they failed to cooperate with border guards and gave them false information, it’s been claimed. (Mail)
📣 The SNP is being urged to scrap the “no compulsory redundancy” rule which has led to hundreds of “ghost workers” across the Scottish public sector. (Times)
📣 Bonfire night policing will be Police Scotland’s largest operation since Donald Trump’s visit, the force says. (BBC)
📣 The SNP has promised “welcome to schoolbags” for Scottish children, and says they cost £28 each. Conor Matchett went shopping down at the Gyle Centre and got it all for £12. Another procurement triumph? (Sun)
📣 A dog presumed dead after a family home was all but destroyed by fire has been found alive a week later - and after a family member suffered severe burns trying to rescue the pet. (Daily Record)
AROUND THE UK & WORLD
📣 The US is warning Gulf allies to expect a short, intense renewal of the Iran War after next week’s midterm elections. (WSJ)
📣 The multi-billion pound Sizewell nuclear plant is a “terrible deal” for taxpayers, says the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee. (Guardian)
Read the MPs’ full report (PDF)
📣 Flávio Bolsonaro has fled Brazil for the US after losing elections over the weekend. Brazilian police had asked him to hand his passport over. (New York Times)
📣 King Charles has acknowledged the “suffering of the past” as he begins a tour of the Caribbean, amid demands for slavery reparations. (BBC)
SPORT
⚽️ Derek McInnes says he was racked with guilt over leaving Hearts. While he’d love a warm reception tonight as Rangers travel to Tynecastle on league duty, he knows not to expect one. (Daily Record)
Hearts v Rangers (8pm, Sky Sports Football)
⚽️ Martin O’Neill says the last 12 months at the club have given him “a lot of satisfaction” - “The club has done more for me than I’ve done for the club,” he said yesterday. His side hosts Dundee United tonight. (BBC)
⚽️ Motherwell delighted fans with their quality last season - but are struggling this term. Scott Mullen looks at how the Fir Park side have gone from challengers to losing six games in a row. (BBC)
⚽️ The grimly poor standard of Scottish refereeing has been in the spotlight in recent days after ref Matthew MacDermid gave an absurd, and match-winning, penalty to Partick Thistle earlier this month. Now former ref Des Roache says head of refereeing Willie Collum has mismanaged the situation and “is not doing a particularly good job” overall. (Daily Record has the exclusive)
⚽️ Red faces for Arsenal last night, as a strong side lost on penalties to Fleetwood Town, with 16-year-old Max Dowman sent off for reacting to a (shocking) tackle. His boss, Michael Arteta, publicly reprimanded him as he trudged off. (BBC)
Liverpool v Chelsea (STV, 8pm)
IDEAS
UK budget: Chancellor John Healey’s plan to, first, do no harm
Vibes matter. We live by how we feel – an idea that orthodox economics gets wrong and Andy Burnham’s first budget looks set to get right.”
🗣️ Eleven months ago, The Early Line listed 15 possible measures that could appear in Rachel Reeves forthcoming budget (you’ll recall it had been postponed to, in effect, the last possible moment).
Vast numbers of ideas had been leaked, apparently tested in the public-opinion market, and then incorporated or (most of them) dismissed. There was a lot of gloom around.
The run-up to today’s budget, to be delivered by new-ish Chancellor John Healey, has been very different. There have been some leaks, and various interested parties are certainly making requests, but the atmosphere around the event is much calmer. There’s even talk of attempts at a “feel-good” budget.
CNBC puts the lack of leaks down to Healey’s experience as defence secretary. “The build-up has seen much less rumour and speculation,” writes Ian King.
“Reeves indicated before last year’s budget that she might break her party’s manifesto commitment not to raise income tax. With Healey, such kite-flying has been non-existent.”
That may follow into the budget itself. Some observers think Healey wants to deliver a quiet, as-you-were budget. Labour is enjoying its “Burnham bounce” in the polls: why rock the boat?
That’s certainly (partly) what bond investors are calling for. In the FT (£), they’ve urged Healey to present a “disciplined and pragmatic” budget that doesn't try to tweak the government’s fiscal rules. “Do no harm,” says one. “No mention of wiggle-room and no increase in borrowing.
“The new Chancellor only has one chance to make a first impression and any increase in borrowing will likely […] leave him on the back foot with investors for the rest of his tenure”.
King doesn’t see the speech being entirely plain sailing. Today’s announcements are unlikely to include any painful cuts in public spending, so bond investors may be left unsatisfied.
Instead, Healey said last night he’d seek to balance the books - with big decisions on potential cuts to welfare, new (and expensive) arrangements for social care, and a big increase in defence spending - kicked into next year.
So what should we expect? Have these on your checklist as he delivers the speech…
Reforms to the energy market. Winter’s coming, and the cost of living remains Britain’s number one electoral issue: attempts to tackle that may be the big headline from today’s speech.
In response, we already know the government wants to remove “standing charges” from energy bills. We can also expect a freeze in fuel duty, and an increase in the Warm House Discount support paid to six million households.
Healey may also curb the Energy Secretary's ability to impose net zero levies on household bills.
All this could knock between £20 and £50 off a typical annual energy bill - small beer compared to the huge rises coming down the line in the New Year, but a signal the government “gets” the pressure people are under.Increased tax on Britain’s banks, at least because they’re making a lot of money again. The left is enthusiastic at the prospect: as Polly Toynbee writes in the Guardian, the post-crash bailout of the banks cost the UK a fortune, so they owe the UK. But “Don’t undervalue the toughness it takes to ignore bankers’ intimidation,” she warns.
A reverse ferret on plans to change ISA savings rules, reports the FT today: he’s concluded a change to the amounts you can save in a cash ISA, introduced by Rachel Reeves, isn’t the right way to encourage people to invest in stocks and shares.
Increased tax on gambling. The gaming industry thinks an increase in Machine Game Duty could be on the way, and warned of job losses and closures amid suggestions of a doubling of that tax in the summer. But a smaller rise of 5% could be on the way.
A tax crackdown on online retailers, and aid for the high street. Expect them to be told to collect VAT more effectively - a move which could, by itself, raise up to £1 billion. That money could immediately be redeployed to cut business rates for high street shops.
We’ll see how Healey scores in the bond market almost immediately, and in the opinion columns this time tomorrow.
👍 That’s your Early Line for the day
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