TODAY’S WEATHER

☁️ We’ll have rain this morning in Glasgow and Edinburgh, and rain down south in London too, but it’ll be dry and bright in Aberdeen. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Farage makes a chaotic visit to Scotland | UK unveils defence review, but remains vague on how to pay

📣 Nigel Farage’s first visit to Scotland in six years was a chaotic affair. Reform announced two more councillors defecting to the party, but the Reform UK leader spent much of his time in Aberdeen, skipped a planned walkabout in the byelection battleground of Hamilton, and blamed the Herald for sharing details of his itinerary with protestors. The title’s editor dismissed his claim as “ridiculous”. (Herald)

• Nigel Farage vowed to protect the union as he dismissed concerns a vote for Reform would allow the SNP to stay in power (Express)

• Opponents branded Farage’s plans to review the Barnett funding formula for Scotland as “reckless” (Mail)

• The SNP and Reform candidates clashed on TV last night, ahead of Thursday’s by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Labour’s candidate, Davy Russell, gave a less-than-convincing interview. (STV)

• Anas Sarwar said Farage wants to “enter his kind of poison” into his politics, and admitted “guilt” at the impact on his children of Reform’s attacks on his identity. (Scotsman)

• Stephen Daisley: “With polling day approaching in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, Nigel Farage spent yesterday campaigning in an obvious location: Aberdeen.” (Mail)

• Farage “gave most of the Scottish press the slip and headed to a pub in Larkhall”. (Times £)

📣 The UK plans to spend an extra £2 billion on drones and radically update its tactics and weaponry based on lessons learned by Ukraine in its war with Russia.

The plans are contained in the long-awaited Strategic Defence Review, unveiled by the government yesterday. But doubts remain about the investment’s timescales, and how it will all be paid for. (Guardian) (Read the full review)

• Key points from the new defence strategy (BBC)

• Starmer vows to make Britain “battle ready” - but row over funding threatens to derail plans. (Independent)

• Today’s Early Line takes a deeper look at the review, and reaction to it, below. ⬇️

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IDEAS
UK’s Defence Review wins only lukewarm reviews

🗣️ You do not have to be an especially keen student of official documents to spot the tensions simmering below the surface of the UK’s Strategic Defence Review, published yesterday.

Its 62 recommendations, on everything from “continuous submarine production” to “a new CyberEM Command” and plans to harness battlefield data and emerging technologies, will all be accepted by the government.

But there, just beneath the surface, is the tricky issue of how to pay for it all.

“We were asked to conduct our Review within the budgetary context of a transition [an increase] to 2.5% of GDP,” the reviewers say in their introduction. “We acknowledge with relief that this will apply from 2027 and not later.”

Moreover, they add: “What is also significant is the ambition to spend 3% of GDP on defence in the 2030s if economic and fiscal conditions allow.”

That’s a big “if”, and shows the narrow path between today’s budget of 2.3% - which “might have forced savings in essential capabilities”, the modest increase planned over the next two years, and the bigger number that’s been touted by the Prime Minister, but might never happen.

The Times warns (£) that this “dithering” on spending threatens the country’s security, and says defence must “fight for its share” of spending ahead of, it implies, “the swelling numbers of working-age ‘sick’”.

It points out that, in 1936 when Hitler sent his troops into the demilitarised Rhineland, Britain’s armaments spending was 3.75% of GDP.

“By 1945 the United Kingdom was spending 52 per cent of GDP on its military. That is the problem with ignoring defence: you may not be interested in the outside world, but the outside world is interested in you. Parsimony today translates into crippling expenditure tomorrow.”

That’s a view echoed across Fleet Street’s political divide in The Independent, which notes that while the cost of deterring Russian aggression is high, “the cost of war is higher still.”

Former Defence Secretary (and army officer) Ben Wallace, writing, in the Daily Telegraph (free to read), warns the plan’s timelines are too long. “The threat is here and now,” he writes. “The next decade will be the most challenging of our generation. Now is the time to re-arm. But that isn’t going to happen under Rachel Reeves.”

In The Scotsman, however, Scottish Secretary Ian Murray casts a more positive note, saying the review “sets a clear path for the next decade”: a “fundamental shift” that will help drive economic growth across the UK. Around 25,000 jobs depend on defence in Scotland: more will follow, he says, in a “huge boost for Scotland's world-leading defence sector, delivering economic growth and highly-skilled jobs.”

Expect those benefits to be touted, loudly, in the months ahead. Especially if more tax rises are needed to counter the rising threat of Putin’s Russia.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Keir Starmer says there won’t be another independence referendum while he’s Prime Minister, saying it was more important to focus on the economy. (BBC)

📣 More details are emerging of the gangland shooting on Saturday night in Spain, in which two Scots, both thought to be heavily linked to Scottish gangs, were murdered. (Daily Record) (Sun)

📣 Scotland’s Home of the Year was named on the BBC last night… only click if you don’t want the surprise spoiled… (Herald)

AROUND THE UK

📣 Police have confirmed a total of 109 people were injured in last week’s Liverpool title parade. (BBC)

📣 The UK government is threatening to sue the former owner of Chelsea, Roman Abramovich, to make sure the £2.5 billion he made from the sale of the club goes to Ukraine, as required by sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion. (BBC)

📣 The UK cancer survival rate has doubled since the 1970s in what a Cancer Research UK report calls a “golden age” of progress in diagnosis and treatment. (Guardian)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 A new search has been launched in Portugal as Portuguese and German police continue their investigations into the disappearance of Madeleine McCann in 2007. (BBC)

🌎 Who is “the mysterious Mr Tymofieiev”, the man behind Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web, “one of the most audacious military operations ever” The Mail goes deep on Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s long-range bombers, and marvels at the bravery and invention of the people who put it together. Richard Pendlebury argues the weekend attack “far exceeds” the Dambusters raid of WWII for its “breathtaking scope and impact”. (Mail)

🌎 Pressure is growing for new sanctions on Russia within the US Senate, amid frustration that peace talks with Russia are bearing no fruit. (Semafor)

🌎 Elon Musk’s xAI is looking to sell $300 million of shares, valuing the group at $113 billion, as he returns his attention to his business empire and attempts to ride the artificial intelligence wave. (FT £)

🌎 A huge cloud of Saharan dust blanketed much of the Caribbean yesterday and is on its way towards the United States. (AP)

SPORT

⚽️ A new Rangers manager will arrive soon, the club’s sporting director said in his first (official) day in the job. (Scotsman)

• Former Rangers chairman Dave King says the club’s new owners will get the club back to the top of Scottish football. (Sky Sports has the exclusive)

⚽️ Elvis is back in the building, proclaims the Sun: Steven Pressley is Dundee’s new manager, in a surprise appointment that brings the former Scotland defender - nickname Elvis - back to Scotland after a long spell working in England. (Sun)