Does Scotland face a £300m funding gap?

PLUS: Former Brewdog boss says we're all work shy, and remembering Tony Slattery

👋 Good morning! I’m Neil McIntosh, and this is your Early Line for Wednesday 15 January 2025. It’s great to have you here.

Sent from Edinburgh every weekday at 7am, The Early Line brings you essential news and thought-provoking views on Scotland, the UK, and the world. Understand your world, free of pop-ups and clickbait.

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☀️ Today’s weather: No brolly required today: early cloud in Glasgow and Edinburgh will clear for another bright, sunny and reasonably mild day. Cloud will linger a little longer in Aberdeen, but it’ll stay dry and get brighter later. London will have a misty start and remain grey all day. (Here’s the UK forecast).

And here’s all you need to know this morning:

THE BIG STORIES
Scotland’s looming £300m funding gap

📣 Scotland faces funding gap of hundreds of millions of pounds because of increased national insurance contributions after the last budget, finance secretary Shona Robison has warned. She told MSPs at Holyrood’s finance and public administration committee that talks with the Treasury were still ongoing, but that the gap could be as much as £300m. The problem is created by Scotland’s proportionately larger public sector, relative to England and Wales. (The Times)

📣 A ceasefire in Gaza is getting closer today after “marathon talks” in Qatar had fuelled hope. Officials from all sides now say a deal - which will see a truce and the return of hostages - was “closer than ever”, with talks on the final details of a text under way. (Reuters)

📣 It’s time to change how we diagnose obesity, doctors say today. The body mass index is, they say, causing millions of people to be misdiagnosed as either obese or not, because it is not a direct measure of fat, doesn’t look at fat distribution around the body and doesn’t provide information about someone’s actual health. The findings are published today in a Lancet report (link below). (The Guardian) (The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology Journal)

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IDEAS
Sturgeon prepares her post-political life

Her separation announcement, white text on a deep purple background, was pitched not at the political activists who swarm around X exchanging gossip and spinning lies into fact but to the inhabitants of Instagram, the site where those of a certain age go to show their just-hip-enough credentials with photographs of Ottolenghi suppers cooked and Booker-shortlisted novels read.”

🗣️ I included a link to The Economist’s discussion about Greenland last week with tongue planted firmly in cheek, even if I wasn’t 100% convinced the magazine was joking itself. Surely there’s no right price for the US to buy the island, right? So I was surprised to see Stewart McDonald, the former SNP MP, writing in The Spectator - and the suggestion that, on Greenland, “Trump has a point”.

He wasn’t meaning that point. Instead, he notes that UK and European security policy has left the sea between Greenland, Iceland and the UK relatively unattended. As we talk about NATO, and defence, addressing that should be a priority, he argues. Trump, he concedes, may well approve. (The Spectator) (From last week: The Economist)

🗣️ Brewdog founder James Watt might have left the controversial beer brand but he retains his ability to create a stir. His latest rage-bait was a video, posted on social media, in which he claimed the UK is one of the “least work-oriented countries in the world”. He urged the population to get over their “work-life balance” obsession.

In the video, included in the links below, Watt suggests work-life balance is a concept invented by those who hate what they do.

He took a lot of abuse when he first voiced his thoughts - we might be slackers, but we sweat those keyboards - but has since come back with data. “As a nation, we love to joke about the French being lazy,” he notes, “but the reality is that our output per hour is 13 per cent lower than theirs.” That hasn’t helped improve the public reaction. (LBC) (Daily Mail)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Twin sisters have gone missing in Aberdeen, with a search for their whereabouts now entering its second week. There is currently “nothing to suggest criminality” in the case but their absence is seen as “very out of character”. They were last seen walking in the city centre at 2.12am on Tuesday 7 January. (STV)

📣 Plans for hundreds of new homes on the outskirts of Edinburgh are likely to be rejected next week, despite the city announcing a “housing emergency” in 2023. The proposals for 500 homes on a site near Edinburgh airport and another 400 in fields near Mortonhall have been recommended for refusal by officials because they are on green belt land. (The Herald)

AROUND THE UK

📣 Chancellor Rachel Reeves appeared in parliament to make a statement on her visit to China… but really it was about trying to reduce pressure on the pound and UK debt prices. She flagged there may be emergency spending cuts, ruling out breaking her fiscal rules. (The Sun)

📣 City Minister Tulip Siddiq has resigned after days of pressure over her connections to a £3.9bn anti-corruption investigation in Bangladesh. Although Siddiq had said he was “clear I have done nothing wrong” in a letter to the prime minister’s standards adviser, her position had been very difficult for days. The BBC has a useful summary of the background to the whole saga. (BBC)

📣 Former Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams will receive taxpayer-funded compensation if plans to repeal the Legacy Act go ahead. Adams was originally blocked from getting compensation for his time in prison without trial in the 1970s, but a High Court ruling said the Legacy Act’s provisions were incompatible with the European Convention on Human Rights. (Independent)

📣 Comedian Tony Slattery is remembered today after his death from a heart attack. He had, over the years, had problems with a vast cocaine and alcohol habit - troubles he had talked of, of late, having overcome those problems years ago. But as a doctor notes in the Mail, the damage could have been done. The Guardian offers an affectionate remembrance: “I don’t think I ever met a more beautiful man than Tony Slattery” said fellow comic Sandi Toksvig. They also link back to their interview with the man himself in 2019: “I had a very happy time until I went slightly barmy”. (Mail) (Guardian) (Guardian’s interview from 2019)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 The fires in Los Angeles have now been burning a week and are still nowhere near being contained. Stronger winds did spark new fires, which were controlled quickly - a little good news among the appalling. The New York Times live coverage is viewable without a subscription and does an admirable job of explaining the scale and the devastation. The photography - including one shot of a brick fireplace, left standing amid an almost entirely destroyed home by the ocean, is especially striking. The firewood next to the grate is intact. (New York Times)

🌎 South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was (finally) arrested after a long standoff in which the police had attempted to gain entry to his compound, only to be frustrated by the presidential guard. It had all led to questions of who, really, was in charge - a question with greater point after Yoon’s martial law declaration late last year, which led to the current investigation of an attempted rebellion. (AP)

SPORT

⚽️ Celtic would have been happy to escape Dens Park with a draw last night after it took a stoppage-time penalty to level the score at 3-3. Manager Brendan Rodgers was far from happy with his side’s display, mind you, labelling his side “soft” in some areas. The dropped points aren’t significant in the title race, such at it is: Celtic are 16 points clear, with Rangers due to play Aberdeen at Ibrox tonight. That game could go some way to determining manager Philippe Clement’s future: yesterday, he said he was a “winner” and would never throw in the towel.

⚽️ It was a night of drama last night in the Premier League, as Nottingham Forest and Liverpool duked out a 1-1 draw and Brentford fought back from 2-0 down to draw with Manchester City. Graham Potter also got his first win as West Ham boss, with a 3-2 victory over Fulham. On last night’s evidence: Liverpool are still good for the title, even though they have their woes (not least Andy Robertson’s form). Nottingham Forest deserve the plaudits coming their way - they are a proper side which will challenge for a European spot, at least. And Manchester City… they’re still not quite right.

👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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