In your briefing today:

📣 Britain’s political right is in ferment: Kemi Badenoch sacked former Cabinet minister Robert Jenrick, who then appeared only hours later beside Nigel Farage to announce he had joined Reform - that party’s biggest Tory defection to date.

Earlier, in Scotland, Farage unveiled Lord Offord as Reform’s Scottish leader. The ex-Scottish Tory treasurer and benefactor had been expected to land the top job in Scotland since his defection in December.

📣 The European Union is drawing up a plan for a “membership-lite” plan for Ukraine, which could become part of a peace deal to end Russia’s invasion.

The country would gain access to parts of the single market, agricultural subsidies and internal development funding, but would not have full decision-making power.

But the proposals are unsettling some EU capitals who worry about further enlargement of the bloc, which they see coming with sweeping implications. (The FT has the exclusive £)

📣 Donald Trump finally has his hands on a Nobel Peace Prize: Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado handed over hers to the US President during a meeting at the White House, saying it was recognition of his commitment to her country’s freedom. He called it “a wonderful gesture of mutual respect”. (BBC)

📣 John Swinney says three biologically male killers who now identify as female will remain in women’s jails over fears moving them will breach their human rights, and has refused to say whether he believes they are men or women. (Times £)

📣 ScotRail has apologised to an elderly passenger who collapsed after enduring cold temperatures on the notoriously chilly West Highland Line service from Oban to Glasgow. "I am bloody furious. The conditions on the train were completely and absolutely unacceptable,” Dr Frank Roberts, 79, said. (Oban Times £)

📣 The first of four new CalMac ferries being built by a Turkish shipyard has been handed over. MV Isle of Islay is 15 months late, and is likely to enter service in ealry spring. (BBC)

📣 The National Galleries of Scotland have secured close to £56 million from the Scottish Government to build a new waterfront cultural centre in Edinburgh. The Art Works project will house more than 130,000 works not currently on display. (The Herald has the exclusive £)

📣 Former soldiers approaching pension age could be recalled to serve as Britain looks to face the growing threat from Russia. The MOD will raise the recall cap from age 55 to 65 next year. (Mail)

📣 Rachel Reeves has been warned her sums around £45 billion plans for new railways in the north of England must be based on flawed data. An economist says data showing Manchester’s productivity grew four times faster than the national average since Covid were likely a data error. (Telegraph £)

📣 The Wall Street Journal goes deep on “the 24 hours that bloodied Iran”, which came immediately after authorities cut off the country’s internet services. It’s hard to judge the final death toll at this stage, human rights groups tell the title, but it’s likely to “far exceed” deaths in previous bouts of protests. (🎁WSJ - gift link)

📣 A new map has revealed the landscape beneath Antartica’s icy crust in unprecidented detail, showing thousands of previously undiscovered hills and ridges and new detail in its mountain ranges. (BBC)

⚽️ It’s Scottish Cup weekend, with some banana skins lying in wait for the big clubs: Rangers have to negotiate Annan Athletic at Ibrox tonight, while Auchinleck Talbot might cause a restless night’s sleep for Celtic fans before they meet on Sunday.

In between, managerless Aberdeen meet Raith Rovers (also Sunday), Hibs have to go to Dunfermline, and high-flying Hearts welcome Falkirk on Saturday.

⚽️ Scotland star Andy Robertson wants to stay at Liverpool beyond the end of his current contract - but the 31-year-old says he’s “a player who wants to play”. (BBC)

🗣️ In The Spectator, John Jenkins looks to Iran and fervently hopes “the current protests will cause the tyrants of Tehran to fall,” to be replaced by leaders who allow this nation of 90 million - blessed with extraordinary natural assets - to flourish in a way “that reflects joy, hope and modernity”.

The odds of that are poor, he says: revolutions tend to produce disorder and repression, not order and freedom. And Iran has an especially poor revolutionary history.

Jenkins notes the UK’s position towards Iran has been charactarised by “feebleness” for years.

He suggests now is the time to do something - starting with recommendations he made in a 2023 Policy Exchange report, which include greater financial intelligence being deployed to halt illegal funding flows for the regime, boosting the BBC Persian Service, building expertise and working with local partners to counter Iranian subversion in the Middle East. (The Spectator £)

🗣️The Economist asks: what would the collapse of the Iranian regime mean? Perhaps marking the difficulty of the situation, it then fails to fully answer. What it does see are a range of possibilities: the bleakest is that the regime remains in power.

But a complete collapse, into worse violence fermented by religious fanatics, would be bad too, not least because Iran is a nuclear power.

“In between are scenarios in which the regime fragments,” the newspaper speculates. “Perhaps the Revolutionary Guards will oust the supreme leader. Or a faction of guards may seize power in the name of the people, and seek legitimacy by holding rival factions to account for the recent killings.

“If so, they could be helped by the regular army, which so far has stood aside. Either way, the new men in charge could seek to strike a deal in which America lifted sanctions in exchange for strict limits on Iran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missiles.”

That, perhaps, is the best case scenario. But it’s fraught with difficulty: the path to a good outcome is narrow and may be impassible. “The hope nonetheless is that, in time, the collapse of the regime will favour Iran’s courageous people, who have proved once again that they are their country’s greatest blessing,” a leader concludes. (The Economist £)

🗣️A more peaceful struggle for power is continuing in the Labour Party, where Ailbhe Rea says Keir Starmer is entering the new year determined to fight back, but also has colleagues plotting to take his job.

Or, rather, “planning”: health secretary Wes Streeting protested to a colleague that he was “planning” for a leadership contest, “as any self-respecting cabinet minister would. “It’s not just me, Streeting explained to [Morgan] McSweeney: so is half the cabinet.

Not that Starmer appears likely to face a challenge just yet. “There is a strange consensus that Starmer is safe,” writes Rea. (New Statesman £)

🗣️ Disturbing news from France: bakeries there, faced with high butter prices and early mornings (tell me about it) have outsourced their croissant production to industrial suppliers. Butter has been replaced with margarine.

The impact is dramatic: “Gone was the delicate shatter of buttery lamination,” writes Dan Fox, who lives there. “Absent was the fragrant plume of warm dairy. What I tasted was more like… wax. Hydrogenated, seed-oil-infused wax. It stopped me mid-bite.”

“And perhaps that’s the truest measure of where France now finds itself: a country still wrapped in the golden flake of tradition, but filled more and more with something else entirely.” (The Spectator £)

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