"At a crossroads in history"

A wrap-up of reaction to a momentous three days. PLUS: All the Oscars pictures and reaction, and a thrilling Edinburgh derby

👋 Good morning! It’s Monday 3 March 2025, and I’m Neil McIntosh, editor of The Early Line. It’s great to have you here.

Sent from Edinburgh every weekday at 7am, The Early Line brings you essential news and thought-provoking views on Scotland, the UK, and the world. Understand your world, free of pop-ups and clickbait. Forwarded this by a friend? Join The Early Line at earlyline.co - it’ll cost you nothing.

☀️ Today’s weather: The weekend’s pleasant weather continues into today. Glasgow and Edinburgh will be bright and dry all day, although the cloud will thicken later. Aberdeen and London will be even sunnier with the granite city and, somehow, a bit warmer than down south. (Here’s the UK forecast).

And here’s all you need to know this morning:

THE BIG STORIES
Starmer rallies European “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine | Anora is big Oscars winner

📣 Keir Starmer said “We are at a crossroads in history” as he announced a “coalition of the willing” led by the UK and France to try and end the war and help Ukraine defend itself from Russia. The London Summit of 18 leaders, called only three days earlier, agreed a four-point plan to keep aid flowing into Ukraine, respect Ukraine’s sovereignty in any deal, boost the country’s defence and support it in the longer term. (BBC)

  • “Defiant but tactful” Zelensky seeks to move on from White House spat (Guardian)

  • Charles Moore: Starmer’s bridging approach is right, but the gulf is ocean-wide (Telegraph)

  • Scottish troops could be in Ukraine by the end of the year, John Swinney said yesterday on the BBC. (Herald) (See the Sunday Show in full)

  • The Prime Minister has dismissed calls from the SNP and others to scrap Donald Trump’s planned second state visit to the UK, saying he “won’t be diverted by the SNP or others trying to ramp up the rhetoric". (BBC)

  • Starmer announced a £1.6 billion missile deal for Ukraine (BBC)

  • View from the US: Europe races to repair a split between the US and Urkaine (New York Times)

  • Today’s Early Line rounds up commentary on the weekend in Ideas, below ⬇️

📣 The big winner of the Oscars overnight was Anora, the rom-com about a sex worker who marries the son of a Russian oligarch. It won five awards, including best picture, best actress and best director. Sean Baker, picking up the latter, implored industry colleagues to “keep making films for the big screen” to preserve the “communal experience” of film. Host Conan O’Brien joked about the film: “I guess Americans are excited to see someone finally stand up to a powerful Russian”. (Guardian)

  • Ongoing rolling coverage, including photographs and video, of the awards and after-parties (Daily Mail) (AP)

  • See pictures of all the red carpet fashion (BBC)

  • A complete list of the winners (Guardian)

IDEAS
Three days that changed the world (again)

🗣️ A lot has unfolded since Friday’s edition of The Early Line. Then, we were looking ahead to Volodymyr Zelensky heading to Washington to sign a deal for Ukraine’s mineral wealth which would - at least - bring Donald Trump and the US closer to his nation, and its protection from Russia.

The weekend was dominated by discussion of what happens next. A pre-arranged (although not by long) London summit became the focus of global democracy and, as we report above today, a once-unlikely Anglo-French leadership has emerged. I’ve read a lot over the weekend: I thought you might be interested to hear a little from interesting digital-only voices, mainly on Substack, who do so much these days to digest the world on our behalf.

🗣️The summit was “a good and serious show”, writes Kirsty Hughes. But “there are two big elephants in the room,” she writes, “one being Trump and the other being Putin”. Keir Starmer may insist “against all the evidence that the US is both an important and reliable ally” but it remains a big question as to if European leaders can get any security guarantees out of him.

🗣️Nobody believes he’s reliable, writes Lewis Goodall, because of JD Vance. “We are only six weeks into the Trump second term, and it is clear that Vance sees all he does through the prism of the chance of securing his own [term]… This is a salutary reminder to European leaders that whatever replaces Trump could be even worse. And while Trump is fundamentally mercantilist, Vance is a true idealogue.”

🗣️Iain Martin at Reaction notes (£) “how quiet are Nigel Farage and the populists, who broadly share Trump’s analysis of Ukraine and his great-power, might- is-right dynamics. On the internut, sorry internet, you’ll find plenty of this from a minority, in Britain at least, saying Zelensky had it coming. The heart sinks to read it.”

The time is right, says Martin, for Europe to get its act together: the argument has been won, defence spending is going to go up, but the “cold, hard reality” is that 2.5% will just be a start. Welfare bills are going to have to come down. Government programmes will need to be pruned. Borrowing will need to hit war-era levels. “I am not sure most of Britain’s political class will be able to handle what is coming.”

🗣️ My old Wall Street Journal colleague Simon Nixon is, I hope he’d forgive me saying, often quite the pessimist these days, but in his latest newsletter he shares “three reasons for optimism” for Europe: First, Germany has emerged stronger from last week’s elections. Second, Europe is likely to push ahead with deeper integration, not least in defence. Third, the post-Brexit rest of UK-EU relations will gather speed too. He offers some caveats to these green shoots… but you can explore those yourself. Let’s end our round-up with some brightness, shall we?

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Hydrogen-ready boilers may be allowed as an alternative to heat pumps in a u-turn by the Scottish Government. The Scotsman has the exclusive.

📣 The SNP’s Annabelle Ewing - a former Scottish Government minister - has said she won’t be running in next year’s Scottish elections. (STV)

📣 An ugly “interim” concrete ramp in Edinburgh’s Charlotte Square has been criticised by residents and one of the city’s heritage bodies. (Times)

📣 There is a high risk of wildfires until Wednesday, according to the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service, across a large part of Scotland. (STV)

AROUND THE UK

📣 The centuries-old leasehold system in England and Wales is to be abolished, the housing minister has promised. (The Guardian has the exclusive)

📣 Foreign criminals are to be deported more quickly to free up space in UK prisons. A new “crack squad” will identify prisoners who have no right to stay: foreign nationals make up around 12% of the prison population. (Independent)

📣 TikTok and Reddit are facing investigation from the UK’s data protection watchdog over claims their algorithms are serving up inappropriate content to children. (Sky News)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 A US hedge fund is set to buy Scotland’s biggest shopping centre, in East Kilbride (The Herald)

💰 Former Barclays boss Jes Staley seeks to clear his name in court this week over his career-ending friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. He’s seeking to overturn a decision by the Financial Conduct Authority to ban him from holding a senior position in financial services. (BBC)

💰 Crypto prices have jumped after President Trump said a US reserve of digital assets would include bitcoin and other tokens. (FT)

SPORT

⚽️ It was a thrilling Edinburgh derby, with Hibs ending up on top after an outstanding Jack Iredale winner in the second half. The Sun captures the moment David Gray and his staff stood in the centre circle enjoying the crowd’s rendition of Sunshine in Leith, their season going from rock bottom early on to challenging for European spots today. (The Sun)

  • Celtic thumped St Mirren on Saturday - the hoops’ dressing room is a happy place these days as they rompt their way to another title (Daily Record)

  • What to make of the mess at Ibrox, after Rangers third home defeat in a row, to Motherwell? Andrew Newport wonders who’d even want to work with the rag-tag team Barry Ferguson is attempting to get a tune from. (Daily Record)

  • All the weekend’s results and video (BBC Scotland)

⚽️ You wonder just how much Manchester United can get… and they find a new level. Going out on penalties to Fulham, after a tepid home display, saw the evaporation of their last chance at a trophy this season. (The Guardian)

👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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