Are our tax bills about to jump?

PLUS: America's top dog, a smörgåsbord of Scottish opinion, and fitba

👋 Good morning! It’s Wednesday 12 February 2025, and I’m Neil McIntosh, editor of The Early Line. It’s great to have you here.

Sent from Edinburgh every weekday at 7am, The Early Line brings you essential news and thought-provoking views on Scotland, the UK, and the world. Understand your world, free of pop-ups and clickbait. Forwarded this by a friend? Join The Early Line at earlyline.co - it’ll cost you nothing.

☁️☀️ Today’s weather: A mixed bag today… across the central lowlands it’s cloudy and cold, with a somewhat brighter start at sunrise giving way to an overcast - but dry - day for Glasgow and Edinburgh later. Aberdeen, by contrast, will have a much brighter day. London shares in the murk, but is also dry. (Here’s the UK forecast).

And here’s all you need to know this morning:

THE BIG STORIES
Are we heading for chunky council tax rises?

📣 Are 10% council tax rises on the way? The BBC offers a deep dive on the situation across the country as councils prepare to decide how much more money they need. While First Minister John Swinney and others have warned big increases can’t be justified after a more generous budget this year, councils are perennially short of cash - a collective shortfall of £392m this year, rising to £780m next year. That means many are looking at 8-10% rises, Phil Sim reports. (BBC)

📣 A grandad bled to death because the Scottish Ambulance Service failed to send a crew to his aid, a judge has ruled. The judge also found the service had tried to “elide their own responsibility” by claiming a good samaritan had assumed responsibility for the care of Brian O’Neill, who had fallen and cut his head. His family was awarded more than £500,000 in damages. (The Times £) (STV)

📣 Israeli Prime Minister Benjambin Netanyahu has echoed Donald Trump’s demand for Hamas to release more hostages on Saturday, threatening to withdraw from the ceasefire and restart fighting if the demand is not met. Hamas claims Israel is not meeting the terms of the ceasefire, including not allowing agreed levels of aid into Gaza. (AP)

IDEAS
Across the opinion pages

A roundup of Scottish opinion writing from the last few days…

The Scottish political establishment is struggling to understand support for Reform north of the Border, and even then not struggling all that diligently.”

🗣️In The Herald, Kevin McKenna writes about the employment tribunal in Dundee involving a nurse who objected to sharing a changing area with a transgender doctor.Love and truth and what it means to be a woman are currently being examined in an employment tribunal where Sandie Peggie, an A&E nurse with a 30-year record of unblemished service is fighting NHS Fife for her career,” he writes. “The case of Sandie Peggie against NHS Fife is one of those cut-through moments when the general public have been afforded a glimpse behind the veil that’s been carefully drawn over the trans debate by Scotland’s political class,” he writes. (The Herald £)

🗣️ Scotland needs to end its undemocratic quango culture, writes Ian Johnston in The Scotsman. He zooms in on the bodies surrounding Scottish education - there’s the Scottish Funding Council, the Lifelong Learning and Skills Directorate, Education Scotland and civil servants within the Scottish Government, all thinking about education. Why do they all exist? He sees quangos as capable of sparking a populist backlash as much as anything we saw over Europe a decade ago. (The Scotsman)

🗣️Shona Craven asks why the UK Government’s immigration clampdown isn’t getting the headlines Labour wants. She spies two problems - a media that was distracted by the WhatsApp row, or just didn’t care, and voters’ sense of injustice around immigration being focussed on those being put up in hotels, not working, rather than those doing a shift at the local car wash or nail botique. (The National £)

🗣️ Graham Grant isn’t having Kate Forbes’ claim that the SNP doesn’t believe in tax rises. “Like a stage hypnotist,” he writes, “the Deputy First Minister wants us to fall under her spell: ‘Look into my eyes, you are getting sleepy - when you’re awake you will forget that your taxes ever went up.’ […] Ms Forbes might have a tough job convincing her party’s powerbase, or what’s left of it, that soaking the rich isn’t always a brilliant idea.” (Mail)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 A transgender doctor continued to use female changing rooms at the Victoria Hospital in Kirkcaldy after an incident with a nurse who objected to the doctor using the facilities, an employment tribunal has heard. The doctor “decided to put my big girl pants on and be brave,” the tribunal was told. The tribunal continues. (BBC)

📣 The Times talks to the two Scottish-based chefs who have picked up Michelin stars, leading with Rodney Wages, who closed his award-winning Avery restaurant in San Francisco and - in search of a better quality of life - moved the whole thing to Edinburgh. The guide says: “Rodney has wholly embraced his Scottish surroundings, taking the country’s bountiful produce and treating it with a Californian lightness”. The other winner is Stuart Ralston - who also came (back) to Scotland after a spell in the States. (The Times)

📣 Once it was called “the Harrods of the north”, but Jenners - on Princes Street in Edinburgh - was a shadow of itself before it finally closed in 2020. It’s been a building site since 2021, and the scene of a tragedy in 2023 when a firefighter died fighting a fire in its basement. Now, ahead of another three years of restoration work, new images have been released showing how it’ll look when it finally opens. And very nice it looks. (BBC)

AROUND THE UK

📣 MPs are reconsidering their support for the assisted dying bill after a safeguard - the requirement for a High Court judge to sign off decisions - was removed. (The Times £)

📣 Britain could be the third-fastest-growing economy in the G7 this year… if it avoids a trade dispute with Donald Trump. It might only be relatively good news (against some struggling western economies), and the chances of avoiding tariffs may appear slim, but it’s welcome good news nonetheless for Rachel Reeves. (Independent)

📣 A bitter family feud over an £85m estate has spilled over into the High Court, with the Earl of Yarmouth claiming he needed therapy after having his expectations dashed that he would “take over the estate” when he turned 30 in 2023. His parents and siblings are ranged against him. (Independent)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 The cause of death of the British couple found dead in France has been revealed, with the mayor of their town saying the deaths were “clearly a homicide”. Investigators have not named a suspect, and have not said if they are looking for anyone in connection with the deaths. (Daily Mail)

🌎 American schoolteacher Marc Fogel has been freed from a Russian prison after three-and-a-half years, and met Donald Trump at the White House late yesterday after his flight home. He had been sentenced to 14 years after being found holding medically-prescribed marijuana. (Reuters)

🌎 Monty, the giant schnauzer, won the Westminster Dog Show overnight. The show - which has nothing to do with Westminster, London, but has been a TV fixture in the USA since 1948 - has never been won by the breed before. The Guardian covered the event live, and has lots of photographs. Treat yourself. (The Guardian)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 Investment in defence and related technology start-ups across Europe has jumped 24% in 2024, to $5.2 billion, outpacing venture capital funding for AI, according to figures from the Nato Innovation Fund. (FT £) (Nato Innovation Fund)

💰 Heathrow Airport will spend billions extending two terminals and reconfiguring the airfield alongside its plans for a third runway. Today, the airport will also commit to using British steel for its infrastructure. (BBC)

💰 Goldman Sachs has become the latest company to ditch diversity rules, saying it will scrap a rule that stopped it from advising companies with all-male, all white boards on their floatations. (BBC)

SPORT

⚽️ It’s a big night in Glasgow tonight: Bayern Munich come to Celtic Park in the Champions League knockout round play-off first leg.

  • The German giants’ captain Manuel Neuer says it’ll be “an honour” to play against fellow goalie - and fellow veteran - Kasper Schmeichel. (The Sun)

  • Brendan Rodgers referred to Bayern Munich as “footballing royalty” ahead of the game, and star striker Harry Kane as “absolutely brilliant”. Celtic’s goal is to keep the tie alive into the second leg. (Tonight, 8pm, TNT Sports 2). (The Scotsman)

⚽️ Manchester City played their part in a richly entertaining game last night, but lost 3-2 against Real Madrid and now have a mountain to climb in the second leg. (TNT Sports has the report & highlights)

⚽️ Warren Gatland left his job as Wales coach “by mutual agreement” after a dismal run of form culminated in last weekend’s 22-15 loss to Italy in the Six Nations. The Scotsman says Glasgow’s Franco Smith is an early contender for the job. (The Scotsman)

👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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