TODAY’S WEATHER

☁️ A dry, bright start fizzles out for Glasgow and Edinburgh by mid-afternoon. Aberdeen will be dry, but overcast. London will be hot again, hitting a high of 33 degrees. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Starmer faces his MPs’ wrath over welfare reform | Warning on gender ruling | Police probe performances

📣 The Labour government’s welfare reforms go to a vote today: it’s expected that concessions offered last week by Keir Starmer will have done enough to get the changes passed, with rebels falling short of the 80 or so votes they need to defeat their government.

But, with admissions yesterday that 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by the changes, the scale of the dissatisfaction will be laid bare today, an embarrassment to Starmer’s increasingly beleaguered government.

• Labour rebels continue to demand more changes to the government’s benefits changes (Independent)

• Keir Starmer will be hit by the biggest rebellion of his premiership today (Mail)

• Chris Mason: “This is not meant to happen, one year into government, with a working majority of 165.” (BBC)

📣 The Equality and Human Rights Commission has “delivered its starkest warning yet” to the Scottish Government to stop dragging its feet on changing policies after the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling on the definition of women.

The Scottish Government has said it’s waiting for further guidance before issuing new advice to Scotland’s public sector, including prisons, schools and the NHS.

But Dr Lesley Sawers, the Deputy Chair and Scotland Commissioner for the watchdog, told The Herald that the current “climate of uncertainty and widespread misinformation serves nobody”. (The Herald has the exclusive)

📣 Police have launched a criminal investigation into last weekend’s Glastonbury performances by Kneecap and Bob Vylan. Avon and Somerset Police said the performances had been recorded as a public order incident. (Independent)

• Former newsreader Krishma Patel: “I quit the BBC over Gaza. Glastonbury proves it was the right thing to do”. (Independent)

• Katie Razzall: Did the BBC’s focus on one potential Glastonbury controversy mean they missed another? (BBC)

IDEAS
Delving into the complicated world of Scotland’s crime statistics: it’s murder, ma’am

🗣️ Many of us are living in fear of crime in our neighbourhoods. That’s the message from the polling released today by Survation, conducted for 1919 Magazine, the Scottish Police Federation magazine. (Scotsman) (Mail)

It found that a third of us feel crime has increased, with only 11% believing there’s less. Moreover, we don’t think police have the resources to prevent crime.

And yet… there’s statistical evidence to suggest we’re living, at least by any modern standard, in a world that’s far safer than it used to be, with reported crimes falling and the police doing a better job of solving those that take place.

The SNP’s Justice Secretary, Angela Constance, has data to back her up when she says Scotland “continues to be a safe place to live with reported crime falling by more than half since 1991”. Scotland’s recorded crime statistics - the latest edition released only last week - show crime levels broadly static year on year, down on pre-pandemic levels, and down 51% from its peak in 1991.

Other notable statistics in those recorded numbers:

• The lowest levels of “damage and reckless behaviour” since 1975.

• The lowest levels of “crimes of dishonesty” since 1976.

• A “clear-up rate” for crimes of 56%, up 1.9% year on year and consistent with a steady improvement since 1976, when it was less than 40%.

These aren’t minor changes. Indeed, they suggest we’ve been living through a revolution in law and order. So what’s going on?

First, we know that recorded crime statistics aren’t complete - they only include crimes that the police record. The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey, released last year, shows recorded crime captures only a fraction of the crimes people experience.

For instance, in 2023-24 we know 115,266 property and violent crimes were recorded. The survey suggested between 328,000 and 463,000 crimes were experienced that year.

Second, while recorded crimes have been essentially flat since before the pandemic, the crime survey suggests a significant (38%) increase in crime experienced since 2022. You’ll also see disparities between demographic groups in the data, too.

Third, it’s worth noting the long-term trend that Constance referenced in the government’s defence is real. Both surveys show crime has fallen by half since 2008/09. But the patterns of that fall vary between police statistics and public surveys.

The devil, then, may be in the detail: if people are being - say - assaulted and robbed in greater numbers than last year, but can’t or don’t report it, then we know why fear of crime is up. Their family and friends will become more sceptical, too.

We should also see our growing fear of crime in a broader context: it’s the same in England and Wales, and across other nations. Nobody is quite sure why, but some accusatory fingers are being pointed at politicians, the media, and social media. The algorithms are keen to show us horrible crimes we’re statistically unlikely ever to experience. There’s even a name for what that does to us: mean world syndrome. That means the perception of crime may not reflect reality.

So do perceptions matter? Well, yes. Today’s Scotsman makes the case for caring about these things, not least because it might influence the way we vote. Moreover, says the title, fear of crime could lead to the elderly being afraid to go out, or businesses deciding not to invest.

I’m no policy expert (and would love to hear your thoughts if you are… just hit reply!). But, even just looking at the statistics, you can see the government faces a bind. Does it spend to build confidence in the police - put more officers on the beat, say, and reopen police stations? After all, that might not help solve any more crimes, given that detection rates are already historically high (albeit against a falling number of recorded crimes).

Moreover, those moves might make the crime statistics worse. Think about it: the crime survey suggests many crimes go unrecorded. Investment might mean more crimes are recorded, driving up reported crimes and potentially lowering the clear-up rate. That would mean that police and politicians appear to be failing. The incentives are hardly compelling.

So what to do? Even Taggart would struggle to clear this one up.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Three strikes on Glasgow’s subway will take place during this year’s TRNSMT music festival on Glasgow Green. (Herald)

📣 There’s a civil war in Scotland’s Green Party: Kathleen Nutt takes a long look at the factions battling it out to control a party which, until little more than a year ago, was part of the government. (Herald)

• It’s a battle in which Ross Greer - once called “Che Guevara in short trousers” - “finds himself cast as what passes for a centrist”. (Sunday Times £)

📣 A teacher has been jailed for nine years for the sexual abuse of 11 boys over a 21-year period at private schools in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dumbarton. William Bain, 72, was arrested in 2022 after evidence was given at the Scottish Child Abuse Inquiry. (BBC)

AROUND THE UK

📣 Energy bills will drop for households across the UK by £11 a month, typically, from today. It’s not clear if prices will stay down for long. (BBC)

📣 Hot weather is driving up food prices, retailers warn, as harvests are harmed by the UK heatwave. (Guardian)

📣 Veteran news presenter Sandy Gall has died aged 97. Gall, born to Scottish parents in Malaysia, was educated in Scotland and started a storied career at Aberdeen’s Press & Journal. The Times obituary, if you have a subscription, is a particular treat. (Mail) (Times £)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 Israeli airstrikes killed at least 74 people yesterday, including 30 at a seaside cafe packed with women and children, while gunfire killed 23 people who had been seeking food. (AP)

🌎 Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”- that’s its formal title - is grinding its way through the US Senate, with deliberations continuing deep into the small hours as Democrats oppose the package, and Republicans attempt to shore up support for its package of tax breaks and spending cuts. (AP)

🌎 An abuse scandal at an elite boarding school has “shaken” France, with priests and staff accused of abuse from 1957 to 2004. (Guardian)

SPORT

🎾 Well, that didn’t last long. Scottish tennis hope Jacob Fearnley fell at the first at Wimbledon, dismissed in just over two hours in the heat of Court No 1. Edinburgh-born Fearnley “produced an error-strewn performance,” writes Mark Atkinson, a blow for the player who’s reached 51 in the world rankings this year. (Scotsman)

⚽️ Al-Hilal beat Manchester City in extra time in the last 16 of the Club World Cup: a “crushing disappointment” for City, writes Jamie Jackson, who “gradually lost shape and tempo and crumpled in this shock of the Club World Cup.” (Guardian)

⚽️ Hibs have a new chief executive: Dan Barnett, Leicester City’s former commercial director, is taking over at Easter Road. (Herald)

⚽️ Celtic have made their fourth signing of the summer: young striker Collum Osmond moves north from Fulham. (Herald)