In your briefing today:

📣 Counter-terrorism police have taken over the investigation into Ann Widdecombe’s death: a development that has prompted shock among politicians, and new calls for a review of their safety.

Devon and Cornwall Police had said, over the weekend, they had ruled out a terrorist motive for the alleged murder.

But yesterday, counter-terrorism officers said they were running the case, and a suspect had been re-arrested on suspicion of commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism. The change was prompted by “new information and evidence,” they said. (Guardian)

📣 Iran has attacked two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one person and injuring eight, while the US has launched strikes on Iran for the third consecutive night.

📣 Nicola Sturgeon’s lawyer says she will not be releasing the statement she gave to police investigating the SNP’s finances. Aamer Anwar said “neither Ms Sturgeon’s written statement or her police interview will be released”.

Anwar insisted Sturgeon was innocent and took a swipe at those calling for its release, saying: “Ms Sturgeon’s detailed statement produced for Police Scotland was to assist them with their inquiries; not for those who think they could now do a better job than the robust ‘gold-plated’ financial crime investigation.” (Mail)

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📣 Amnesty International UK says it “regrets” a report which labelled JK Rowling’s sexual assault support centre for women “anti-rights”. The report prompted a furious backlash from women’s rights groups before it was withdrawn. (Herald)

📣 Six Scottish universities say they have no places or only a few for Scottish-based applicants during this year’s clearing process, with places going to those from other parts of the UK or overseas because they pay tuition fees. (Mail)

📣 Sir Chris Hoy says he got the vibe that “there was never going to be any change” in prostate cancer testing, despite his high-profile campaign to roll out universal screening for the disease. (Mail)

📣 Any lingering doubt Andy Burnham will become the next Prime Minister has been erased: he now has the backing of 349 Labour MP’s, including all of Keir Starmer’s current cabinet, making it impossible for any challenger to emerge. (Guardian)

📣 Whistleblowers have claimed Britain came close to blackouts during the record-breaking hot weather in late June - and that staff supporting the national energy grid were involved in a cover-up to hide the extent of the problem. (Guardian)

📣 A woman who hung on to her husband’s legs as he was being sucked out a Ryanair jet window has described her battle to save him. Part of an engine broke away and smashed the window next to Serbian Ljubiša Karović: he’s now in hospital, unable to speak and “in a state of severe shock”. (Mail)

⚽️ It’s a mouth-watering prospect: France play Spain tonight in the first of the World Cup semi-finals, and France boss Didier Deschamps is predicting a “spectacular” match in Dallas. The nations produced a nine-goal thriller when they met last year. (BBC)

⚽️ Celtic’s Daizen Maeda is talking up leaving the club, once more, with comments to the Japanese media suggesting he sees his future in the English Premier League. (Daily Record)

🗣️ The most important number in British politics doesn’t lie in a dusty document in Holyrood or Westminster, or in an opinion pollster’s PowerPoint deck - it flickers on an oil trader’s screen while its operator anxiously casts glances at the state of play in the Strait of Hormuz.

And it’s a number that’s moving a lot: the Brent crude oil benchmark rose 11% yesterday, reaching north of $83 a barrel, and jumped again overnight.

We know the reason why: the crisis in the Gulf, precipitated by the US attacks on Iran and the latter’s move to all but shut down the Strait, has stopped around 20 million barrels of oil and oil-derived products leaving the Gulf for global markets every day.

That’s between a fifth and a quarter of the world’s production - which means that as supply is strangled, or even just as traders fear things are going to get worse, the global oil price jumps.

And that brings us to Scotland. For every day tensions in the distant Strait of Hormuz are high, and tankers can’t sail through, North Sea oil gets a day of what you might call a stealth stimulus: high prices that make it (even more) economically attractive to extract oil and gas from the fields close to home, and politically attractive to make our energy supplies more secure.

Those high prices and political demand are about to collide with two big, early decisions for Andy Burnham when he gets into Downing Street - expected to happen on Monday next week. What does he do about the Jackdaw gas development, 150 miles east of Aberdeen, and the Rosebank oil and gas field 80 miles off Shetland?

He’ll have to make a call sometime soon after public consultation on the matter closes on August 10.

As Politico reports, “the twin projects are bêtes noires for British climate campaigners and have been held up for years by legal challenges. A final decision from regulators is expected soon and then the last sign-off must come from the U.K. government.”

So how’s it likely to go? It’s not straightforward: Labour and its broader movement, are split on the issue. The person with final legal approval for the projects is UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who called Rosebank “climate vandalism” when the party was in opposition.

But unions, and many Labour MPs, want to see the projects approved, and are unhappy with the current government’s hostility to any new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea (the two developments in question are close to being ready to produce oil and gas: they are far beyond the exploratory stage).

Miliband could become Chancellor in the new Burnham government, although rivals for that job have been quick to burnish their pro-oil and gas credentials. Rachel Reeves has, in recent days, reiterated her previous support for both projects.

Wes Streeting, who had ambitions to become PM before deciding to back Burnham instead, has also been explicit in his support for both projects.

It’s also hard to see how Miliband can be in either his current job, or that of Chancellor, and not approve one or both projects. A compromise might be in the air, where Jackdaw gets the go-ahead and Miliband becomes Chancellor.

Environmental campaigners certainly appear to be giving up on their years-long attempt to stop the Jackdaw development, focusing their efforts instead on the Rosebank field.

Research suggests the field would produce around 250 million tonnes of CO₂ over its lifetime, equivalent to 70% of the UK’s annual emissions.

But environmental concerns are colliding with other political realities, and the decision will give a clear pointer as to where Burnham wants to take his government.

He faces pressure from within his own movement - from the Unite and GMB unions, and some MPs - to go for the jobs, tax revenue and energy security the two fields would provide. He’s already talked about the need for “reindustrialisation” - this would be an immediate proof point for that policy.

There’s also the politics of the decision: he’ll have seen the Conservative victory in the Aberdeen South by-election earlier this month, secured on the back of clear support for the increasingly beleagured city’s oil and gas industry.

And he knows that, even in foreign affairs, there’s pressure to drill coming from the White House: relations with Donald Trump would be warmed by giving the green light.

Which brings us back to those flickering numbers on a trader’s screen, forced up by Trump’s administration-defining decision to go to war with Iran. They highlight the risk of that war to our prosperity, but - as they rise - also up the rewards for pumping more oil and gas closer to home.

It’s Burnham’s destiny to have his own administration defined, in large part, by what he decides to do downstream of events in the Gulf. Rosebank and Jackdaw will be his first big tests.

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