THE BIG STORIES
What caused North Sea collision? Ukraine’s grim hand as peace talks start | Stocks hit by Trump concerns

📣 The front pages are mostly united by dramatic shots of that burning tanker in the North Sea, with fears of an environmental disaster and speculation about how, on earth, it happened. One member of the crew is missing, and a search has been called off. (BBC)

• The Mail notes speculation there was foul play. (Evidence, as they report, is scant to non-existent) (Mail)

• There are growing concerns about the environmental impact of the collision. Birds and seals are at risk from spilled jet fuel. (Sky News)

📣 Sam Kiley’s bleak dispatch from Ukraine sums up the grim position Ukraine finds itself in as peace talks open in Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump’s support for Russia has tipped the scales, and forced Volodymyr Zelensky to the table “for a dish of American humble pie”. A chilling aside: Russia’s assault in the Kursk region, which came after the US stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, “looks coordinated between the Kremlin and the White House”. (Independent)

• Moscow and the surrounding region was hit by a “massive” drone strike overnight (BBC)

• US and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia today (Semafor)

📣 Stocks have entered a second day of losses over concerns about the US economy and President Trump’s tariff regime. Yesterday, US markets saw big falls with the tech-focussed Nasdaq down 4% and the S&P 500 index down 2.7%. Hopes that Donald Trump might be sensitive to stock market losses - “the Trump put” have faded. (Yahoo Finance)

• Some individual stocks have performed especially poorly - Tesla, suffering for weeks as consumers turn their backs on Elon Musk’s car brand - was down by 15% on the day, and has lost more than half its value since its post-election high just before Christmas. (Sky News)

• Crypto, also riding high after the US election, is having a wobble too (Bloomberg via Yahoo)

IDEAS
Why the Spring Statement could be a defining moment for Starmer… one way or another

🗣️ The Chancellor’s Spring Statement is looking more and more likely to be a big moment for the UK, and a defining political moment for this UK government, with Keir Starmer spending part of his evening last night explaining why to Labour MPs.

Rachel Reeves has earmarked savings of several billion pounds to welfare, and other government departments. All the cuts are likely to be controversial: some more than others. Today’s Times Scotland notes (£) that while some benefits are devolved - such as adult disability payment - the funding for them is linked to equivalent payments in the rest of the UK. If the Scottish Government wants to avoid the cuts to benefits, it needs to raise taxes - or cut services.

In previous newsletters, we looked at claims by Fraser Nelson on Times Radio that huge savings could be found by getting people currently claiming sickness benefits back into work. It’s not just the welfare bill saving - it’s the tax they would pay on their new earnings, which could add up to as much as £40 billion of annual savings. He expanded on that in his column on Friday (£), saying tackling the welfare bill could "define” Keir Starmer.

What will Reeves do, and what’s driving her decision? The Fraser of Allander Institute has a helpful primer on what could happen next, looking at which benefits could be cut. It notes the higher per capita number of people in Scotland who are disabled and suffering from long-term conditions, although the growth in caseload in Scotland since Covid - while still high - is lower than the rest of the UK.

They also point to a BBC Verify article which notes how hard it is to save money from the benefits bill. In 2015, the Conservatives promised to save £12 billion a year from the benefits budget… a political backlash forced some of the plans to be rolled back, and they missed their target by £4 billion a year.

The Institute of Fiscal Studies also has a detailed look at the sums, although their introduction - playing down the likelihood of big changes - is starting to feel out of date amid the briefing and the groundwork being laid by Starmer with his MPs last night. But it does note that it’s likely Reeves will have to break promises and commitments made previously: her choice revolves around which ones should go.

The politics will matter. As Isabel Hardman pointed out at the weekend, there is already dissent in the Government’s ranks: deep benefits cuts risk turning that into a flood. That’s why the Prime Minister was focused on his backbenchers last night, trying to quell unrest before it creates a defining moment he’d rather not endure.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Social media trolls have targeted the Glasgow fish and chip shop that hosted Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, during a disastous photocall last week in which he refused to eat any of the fish supper he was posing with. One trade union branch has called for a boycott of what is said to be Glasgow’s oldest chippie. (The Herald has the exclusive)

📣 The SNP’s interim chief executive, Carol Beattie, has the job permanently. (BBC)

📣 The King and Sir Chris Hoy launched the countdown to the Glasgow 2026 Commonwealth Games at Buckingham Palace yesterday, marking 500 days until the opening ceremony. (The Scotsman)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 A former Facebook executive says the social media giant worked “hand in glove” with the Chinese government on ways to censor and control content in China. Sarah Wynn-Williams - a former global public policy director - has written a book detailing her time with the company. (BBC)

📣 Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe has said he is “a poppy that stood up a bit too tall” after he was suspended from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. (Guardian)

📣 The Portugese government is on the brink of collapse with a confidence vote called for today. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is likely to lose - leading to the country’s third election in as many years. (FT £)

📣 Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has been arrested after the International Criminal Court (ICC) accused him of crimes against humanity over his deadly "war on drugs". (BBC)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 The UK Government is planning “seismic reforms” to the planning system in England and Wales in legislation to be published later today. The Planning and Infrastructure Bill will make big changes to regulations in an effort to drive the construction of 1.5 million new homes. (Sky News)

💰 Valentine’s Day brought a little love for UK retailers (sorry) by boosting high street spending, although consumers were still holding back on big-ticket items. (The Guardian)

💰 If you run a team, best be careful where you ask people to sit. Giving a senior employee a desk that they believe to be associated with a junior position amounts to a breach of workplace laws, an employment tribunal has ruled. (The Guardian)

SPORT

⚽️ Premiership strugglers St Johnstone beat Championship side Livingston last night, a brilliant goal from Graham Carey sending them into the semi-finals of the Scottish Cup. The strike is worth a watch. (🎥 BBC Highlights)

🏆The semi-final draw took place immediately after the game: Celtic will play St Johnstone while Hearts will play Aberdeen. The games will take place on the weekend of 19/20 April.

⚽️ Sir Jim Ratcliffe has offered a frank assessment of the situation at Manchester United: some of the club’s players are “not good enough”, and some are “overpaid. You might say that’s a statement of the obvious… but sometimes the obvious isn’t stated by co-owners of football clubs, lest the talent get upset. Ratcliife is clearly trying to quell fan unrest. (BBC)