
- Tuesday 3 March 2026
In your briefing today:
The US, Israel and Iran exchanged attacks overnight as the Middle East war continued to escalate.
10 things to know about war in the Middle East, and its implications: a briefing drawing on sources from around the world.
A man was arrested after a huge police operation in the west of Edinburgh yesterday
TODAY’S WEATHER
THE BIG STORIES
Middle East war: attacks intensify overnight | Brewdog sold off: hundreds of jobs lost | Reeves plans statement
📣 US and Israeli strikes against Iran have intensified overnight, with Israel striking “military targets” in Tehran and Beirut. The US embassy in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia has been attacked by two drones, apparently sent from Iran, causing minor damage. There are also Iranian reports that the US air base in Bahrain has been destroyed: the US has not yet commented on those claims. US allies across the Gulf have also been fending off missile attacks from Iran.
The US has warned the “hardest hits are yet to come” (Independent)
What we know on day four of the war (Guardian)
Iran’s ferocious retaliation has rattled neighbours (CNN)
Donald Trump has been active on social media in the last couple of hours: in one post, he’s boasted of having munitions for a war that could last “forever”. Given his - and Republican - criticism of “forever wars” in years past, it’s a curious choice of phrase. (Truth Social)
Trump may be attempting to address concerns that Gulf states’ sophisticated air defences will run out before Iran’s stock of cheap but deadly missiles is used up. “At current burn rates, it could be very soon,” says the WSJ. (WSJ - gift link)
“The conflict could become more costly and drawn out than the president perhaps had anticipated.” (Washington Post - gift link)
It’s claimed Israel hacked “every traffic camera in Tehran” to spy on Iran’s leaders (Mail)
📣 Aberdeenshire-based brewer Brewdog has gone into administration, with a “pre-packed” deal to save the company leading to the loss of hundreds of jobs.
A US company which owns other brewers and medical cannabis suppliers has bought the company's UK brewing operations, brand and 11 pubs in a £33m deal.
Administrators said the sale had saved 733 jobs - but that 484 jobs had been lost and 38 bars had closed after they were not included in the rescue deal. A brewery and bars in Germany will be closed entirely.
No equity holders - including a vast number of private investors who took part in the company’s “Equity for Punks” scheme- will see any money from the deal. (BBC) (The Grocer)
📣 Rachel Reeves delivers the Spring Statement today: we’re told not to expect any major announcements, but rising global energy prices caused by the widening Middle East conflict will complicate her attempts to quell inflation and rekindle growth, economists have warned. (Guardian)
What could Reeves announce? (Sky News)
Reeves under pressure to keep energy and fuel prices affordable (Independent)
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AROUND SCOTLAND
📣 A man was arrested, and two people were hospitalised, after an alleged stabbing and standoff on an Edinburgh housing scheme. There was a huge police response after first reports emerged around 8.30am, near a school in Calder. (Edinburgh Live)
An Edinburgh shopkeeper said his staff were "terrified and shocked" after coming face-to-face with a man allegedly armed with knives. (Edinburgh Live)
📣 Anas Sarwar said his father was “wrong” to post a tribute to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after his death in a US air strike. (Times - gift link)
📣 Private hospital admissions have hit a new record in Scotland and are growing at a faster rate than the rest of the UK. (Scotsman)
📣 Tourette's campaigner John Davidson's home was burgled while he was in London attending the BAFTAs ceremony. (Mail)
AROUND THE UK & WORLD
📣 The commissioner of the Met Police says he understands why some women still do not trust the force, in an interview to mark the fifth anniversary of the murder of Sarah Everard. (BBC)
📣 AI company Anthropic might have fallen out with the Pentagon but its stance on how its systems are used has won it fans across the world - with its servers crashing, briefly, because of demand yesterday. (WSJ - gift link)
📣 A drunk driving instructor drove into a ditch on his way to a lesson. He’s been banned from driving. (Mirror)
SPORT
⚽️ Celtic captain Callum McGregor has warned that Celtic are not going away in the title race, after they fought back from 2-0 down to get a draw at Ibrox on Sunday. (Daily Record)
⚽️ Hearts striker Claudio Braga admits it is becoming impossible not to feel that something special is happening around Tynecastle. (Mail)
🏉 The Six Nations trophy is being retired after it was damaged in a fire. (Wales Online)
IDEAS
10 things to know about the war in the Middle East, from geopolitics to travel plans
📣 There’s been an eruption of analysis and commentary on events in the Middle East in the last 48 hours, some of it helpful. Rather than attempt to weave a single narrative - there are several running at once - here are a few articles, social media posts and tidbits from conversations I’ve had that might help you make sense of what is going on.
🗣️What is the rationale for the war? Donald Trump’s communications since the start of operations at the weekend have been verging on odd - recorded video messages, and later briefings. Their messages have been mixed, offering a variety of rationales for the attacks which “have confused critics and allies,” reports the FT (£). His aims “remain opaque,” reports the BBC.
🗣️ Keir Starmer has drawn a line in the sand over UK involvement in the war, and that line is in a very different place to - for instance - Tony Blair’s. The implications of his remarks yesterday that “this government does not believe in regime change from the skies” and that the UK’s actions “must always have a lawful basis and a viable, thought-through plan” made clear, albeit diplomatically, that he’s worried about the legality of the “decapitation strike” on Iran, doesn’t think the US bombardment of Tehran is the result of careful planning. Bloomberg has some early analysis (gift link) of the stance, and what it says about UK/US relations.
🗣️How will the war change the Gulf region? Profoundly, one expects. Allison Minor at the Atlantic Council examines how the UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia might fare. The UAE, for instance, makes most of its money from non-oil sources, and has worked hard to paint Dubai as a stable, attractive global oasis despite lying close to Iran. Iran’s decision to pepper the UAE’s air defences with missiles - as many aimed at it as Israel - suggests a further reckoning is due.
🗣️Oil and gas prices are going up: analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera explains why. Insurers - not (only) captains and owners - have to be convinced its safe to sale an expensive tanker, laden with oil, throughthe narrow Straits of Hormuz. Otherwise, telephone calls are made, emails sent, and the ships simply don’t sail. “Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not,” he writes on Twitter. “You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable.”
🗣️ What will the global economic impact be? Oxford Economics seems sanguine about the impact beyond the Gulf states, apart from higher oil and gas prices. The New York Times (gift link) is worried about a “another profound shock”.
🗣️ If you’re planning to travel to or through the Middle East in the weeks and even months ahead, you need to start reviewing your plans now. This CNN piece does a decent job of explaining just how vital the Middle East is as a “bridge” between Europe and Asia. It’s now largely down, and nobody really knows for how long. Airline stocks have been hit (WSJ - gift link), with the level of disruption far greater than seen in recent years.
🗣️This weekend’s Grand Prix won’t be affected, though - cars, drivers and teams all got out of the region in time. (BBC)
🗣️A security consultant of my (digital) acquaintance was fishing around for private security contractors to help get senior business executives out of the Middle East last night. People are paying a lot to get out to Saudi Arabia via private jet. Among mere mortals who rely on scheduled airlines, “half of Dubai is booking” to leave, the FT reports one person as saying, and charter airlines are vying to secure slots at Muscat in Oman. Some Dubai residents are simply jumping in their cars and heading west.
🗣️ Saudi Arabia is spotting the chance to persuade many of those fleeing the trouble around the Gulf to stay in the Kingdom in the long term. But an overnight drone attack on the US embassy in Riyadh shows not even there is entirely safe.
🗣️ What comes after the war? There are already concerns that the US has absolutely no plan - not even the intention - of helping Iran decide what comes next. “Trump’s inclination to bomb first and then wash his hands of whatever comes next in Iran has alarmed U.S. allies,” says the Washington Post. (Washington Post - gift link)
👍 That’s your Early Line for the day
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