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Tuesday 3 November 2026
In your briefing today:
The US heads to the polls today: Donald Trump was talking about landscaping in the final hours of campaigning
MSPs are demanding greater transparency on Scottish government spending and reform plans
See the new John Lewis Christmas ad
TODAY’S WEATHER
THE BIG STORIES
US heads to the polls as Trump talks landscaping | Mahmood waters down immigration curbs | MSPs demand more detail
📣 The United States heads to the polls today in elections that will define the final part of Donald Trump’s presidency. Polling suggests his Republican Party faces a tough night, with some suggesting it could lose control of both the House of Representatives and the US Senate.
Sarah Smith: the elections are a test of how politics might look without Trump (BBC)
What the polls are saying (although remember: US polls are often wrong) (🎥 Sky News)
Trump delivered a closing midterm message, mostly about landscaping. (New York Times)
“Americans are angry about war and prices, and a president’s second midterm is always difficult - but a series of decisions by President Donald Trump has made Republicans’ Senate majority ever-more vulnerable.” (Semafor)
Supreme Court denies Trump bid to set aside California ballots (Washington Post)
Briefing: 10 things you need to know about today’s US midterm elections ⬇️
📣 Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has backed down on the tough immigration curbs she first proposed more than a year ago, bowing to pressure from cabinet members and Labour MPs who felt her plans were “un-British”. (Times)
The package of changes Mahmood is proposing are still a significant hardening of immigration rules for those who want to settle permanently in the UK. It’s reasonable to view them as a shift toward earning the right to stay, rather than waiting out the required time: people on higher incomes, or with higher or in-demand skills, will gain that right more quickly. (Mirror)
📣 MSPs are demanding “much greater transparency” from the Scottish Government on its progress towards closing a near-£5 billion fiscal gap, and reforming Scottish public services.
The Scottish Parliament’s Finance and Public Administration Committee says it does not have enough evidence to determine whether the government’s tax and spending plans are affordable.
It also says the Scottish Budget is at substantial risk if the government doesn’t also implement its Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan and deliver reform on time. (Holyrood)
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AROUND SCOTLAND
📣 Nurse Sandie Peggie has lost her discrimination claim against the Royal College of Nursing, after she claimed the union had treated her unfairly because of her gender-critical beliefs. (Mail)
📣 The troubled Marine Ferguson shipyard on the Clyde is considering building drone warships for the defence sector. (Scotsman)
📣 More than 1.6 million Scots have no financial plan for retirement, leaving them facing an uncertain future. (Herald)
📣 There’s a new David Bowie exhibition at the V&A in Dundee: see a few of the treasures on display. (Scotsman)
📣 Ministers hope making school bells a bit quieter will reduce anxiety - and truancy levels. (Sun)
AROUND THE UK & WORLD
📣 Prime Minister Andy Burnham is to discuss a formal apology for the slave trade, and a “debt reset” for Commonwealth countries. (BBC)
📣 What on earth happened in that horrific Learjet crash in Florida? Theories have started to swirl over the accident, in which nine people died, which came after the private jet encountered bad weather. The Mail has an interactive that illustrates the doomed flight’s route. (Mail)
📣 Russell Brand’s barrister says allegations about the actor and comedian’s conduct “poisoned the well of justice” and prompted women to come forward, in his closing speech at Brand’s trial. (Independent)
📣 The US has launched strikes on Iran’s strategically important Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz (BBC)
📣 The John Lewis Christmas Ad is out: it stars Dame Kristin Scott Thomas as Gloria, a lovable veteran toy called Pickles, and Sam Fender doing the music, as the department store urges us not to give up on giving in an ad that nods towards the cost of living crisis. In the Mail, Laura Craik provides the analysis: the video looked better on YouTube. (Mail) (See the ad on YouTube).
SPORT
⚽️ The Champions League returns tonight and we have a Scot, in John McGinn, leading Aston Villa into the Camp Nou in Barcelona. McGinn has been speaking ahead of the game, saying he hasn’t been to the stadium since he was on a tourist tour, aged eight - and he’s looking forward to playing the Catalan giants tonight. (TNT Sport)
Key fixtures include
Barcelona v Aston Villa (8pm, TNT Sports 1)
Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich (8pm, TNT Sports 2)
Manchester United v Roma (8pm, Prime Video)
⚽️ Newcastle fans made their views clear as their side slumped to a woeful 1-0 home defeat to Everton. (BBC report & 🎥 highlights)
⚽️ Another international window looms: Scotland coach Sebastien Pocognoli will name his second Scotland squad today for games against North Macedonia and Switzerland. (BBC)
IDEAS
Briefing: 10 things you need to know about today’s US midterm elections
📣 The United States goes to the polls today, and the outcome will decide just how powerful Donald Trump is for the remainder of his presidential term. He’s not on the ballot - although, to the consternation of some Republicans, he’s suggested to voters that they should imagine he is. Whatever he says, the midterms are always a referendum on how the President is doing. With inflation on the up and an unpopular war in Iran dragging on, Trump recently hit an all-time low in popularity.
Trump will have to work with, and be constrained by, the United States Congress he’s handed: made up of the House of Representatives (the House) and the Senate, it writes laws, controls spending, and could decide to come after him - and his cabinet members (watch out, Secretary of State for defence, Pete Hegseth) - with an attempt to impeach. So the arithmetic really matters.
What else should you know?
What’s being decided: All 436 seats in the house, but only a portion - 35 seats - of the 100 seats in the Senate. Governors are also being elected in 36 states - political nerds in the UK will be paying special attention to one, as we’ll see a little later.
The key numbers: Democrats (the blues) need a net gain of three House seats to win a majority over the Republicans (the reds). The Democrats need four Senate seats for a majority there. Pundits think the House gains are more likely than the Senate switch, although both are quite possible.
The Senate race is the key one, then? Yes. Even Fox News calls the race “a toss-up”, so tonight's dangerous drinking game could revolve around how often “too close to call” (Drink!) gets deployed: forecasts say it hangs in the balance. For Republicans, the golden number is 50 seats - hit that and they control the Senate because Vice President JD Vance has the casting vote. If Democrats won every state they have a chance in, however, they could end up with 54 seats. The likely top-end Republican result, say pundits, is 52 seats.
Where are the battleground Senate seats? The most noteworthy stories include…
Texas, Ken Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D): Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Things could change in the next 24 hours: Talarico is well ahead in polling, after a campaign in which $500 million has been spent, including nearly $200 million of Elon Musk’s money behind Ken Paxton.
Maine, Susan Collins (R) vs Troy Jackson (D): Democrats need Maine to win, but have been dogged by an especially grim scandal involving their first candidate, Graham Platner. Polls have new candidate Troy Jackson ahead, narrowly.
Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R) vs Mary Peltola (D): The oddity in this race is that there are two Dan Sullivans - the Republican incumbent and “Decoy Dan”, who Republicans allege was put on the ballot to confuse voters. Courts have rejected objections. Peltola leads in most polling.
Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R): This is the one you’ve heard about in recent days, as Democratic incumbent Haley Stevens has decided to back Republican Rogers. El-Sayed has faced anger over an advert - he says he wasn’t responsible for it - which appeared to blame the rising cost of living on Israel and Jews. Polling says the state is close, with El-Sayed ahead.
Congress looks like a Democrat shoo-in: a “blue wave” victory (Drink! Another phrase for your bingo card) would see them pick up as many as 240 seats in the 435-seat chamber. A Republican good night is not likely to reach beyond 212 seats, six short of a majority.
In the governor’s races: Fox News’s power rankings has three states where Republican-controlled offices are close: Alaska, Nevada and Georgia. Wisconsin, currently Democratic, is also close.
You mentioned a governor’s race to watch? Ah yes - David Cameron’s former right-hand man, Steve Hilton, is running for governor of California. It’s not going well: republican Hilton is polling at 34% - his democrat opponent, Xavier Becerra, looks likely to become the state’s first Latino elected governor.
When should we start seeing results? You’ll start seeing results drop at around 11pm tonight, UK time. The BBC’s election results page is here, along with timings: if everything goes to plan, you’d expect everything to be known by the time tomorrow’s Early Line hits your inbox.
But it could all get very complicated. Some counts can last a while, and in the US that “while” can stretch on for days. Alaska and California could take a week or two because of slow counts and postal votes.
Expect legal challenges left, right and centre: If things turn out badly, don’t expect Donald Trump to meekly accept the democratic verdict: he’s already refused to unconditionally accept the results. This one could run and run (Drink!).
👍 That’s your Early Line for the day
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