TODAY’S WEATHER

☀️ The pleasant spring weather continues for Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen, although the central belt will see more of the sun than the north. London will be sunny and warm. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Trump teases UK trade deal for today | Reform set for big Holyrood wins | VE Day marked across Europe

📣 Donald Trump is set to announce a trade deal with the UK today according to a report in The New York Times.

The US President had teased a trade deal on his Truth Social account last night, without naming which country was involved, writing: “Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!”.

The NYT has spoken to three sources who say it’s the UK.

Details of the deal are not clear, but reports in recent days have suggested that lowering British tariffs on US cars, farm goods and US technology companies were a focus of discussion. In return, some UK exports would not be subject to the 25% tariffs levied on steel and car imports. (New York Times £) (Sky News) (Guardian)

📣 Reform is on course to become the official opposition in Holyrood according to a new Survation survey, commissioned by True North Advisors. It sees Nigel Farage’s party picking up 21 seats - well behind the SNP, but ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

• The Times says that outcome, should it happen, “would represent the most remarkable rise in the history of devolution” for a party that currently has no seats or Scottish leader. (The Times £)

• The Mail brands the outcome “Vote Farage, get Swinney” with the rise of Reform splitting the pro-Union vote (Mail)

• Hannah Brown: The Conservatives “are flatlining, and have been for some time”. (The Herald)

• Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay has “refused to rule out” stepping down, but also says he is “not prepared” to work with Reform. (The Scotsman)

📣 Eighty years ago today, World War Two in Europe came to an end. VE Day will be marked across the nation, and also across Europe, with solemn services and a two-minute silence at midday. It will be marked, for the first time, by a public holiday in Germany. (Guardian)

• “At last Europe’s long nightmare of war is ended.” The Scotsman republishes its VE Day editorial from 1945.

IDEAS
Why WeightWatchers is being bitten by the diet revolution

🗣️ WeightWatchers filing for bankruptcy is this decade’s Blockbuster or Kodak moment: a famous, once vastly profitable company with a brand familiar around the globe suddenly finds itself struggling, victim of technological trends it couldn’t see coming.

Streaming movies did for videotapes and Blockbuster, of course, while Kodak was undone by digital photography. Weightwatchers is finding its famous diet programs made irrelevant by - in large part - the rise of weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Mounjaro over the last three years. The drugs cause patients to simply want to eat less, no diet class, books or funny foods required. (The Mail, obsessed by them, has an excellent explanation of how they work).

The drugs are more effective with an improved diet and some exercise. And, of course, they carry risks and have been blamed for terrible side effects and death. There was a particularly tragic case in Scotland late last year, in which a nurse died after only two injections of one drug.

But, in truth, most people find they work well. And for those who want a little support while the drugs work their magic, an army of diet influencers on Instagram, YouTube and TikTok offers motivational success stories and fitness advice to their followers. That’s the other shoe to drop for WeightWatchers: why go and sit in a church hall once a week to weigh in, when you can get the community you need on your mobile phone? And with self-discipline largely reduced to remembering to take the injection once a week, motivation matters less too.

The drugs are rapidly changing the world, from fashion (skinny models are back) to the economic impact (it’s great news for Denmark, where Novo Nordic - which makes Wegovy and Ozempic - is based). But social norms may change less quickly than WeightWatchers’ revenue. “Ozempic is not going to fix society and rid it of status games,” wrote The Economist (£) last year. “Signalling that you are unique or better than others is hard-wired into human nature.

“The idea that it might become easy to be thin suggests that thinness will lose some of its grip on the popular psyche,” concedes the newspaper. “Something else will doubtless replace it. Perhaps it will be a fixation on muscles, which are more difficult to feign. Or perhaps the truly elite will be those who signal that they are above it all, anyway, doing so with softer, middling body types.”

In other ways, people will still attempt to find ways to signal their superior health, wealth and character… just not through their waistline.

In the meantime, WeightWatchers isn’t going away. It will attempt to clamber out of its hole by shedding debt and - yes - focusing on supplying diet drugs. Its new medication and clinical subscriptions arm saw revenue jump 57% year on year to $29.5 million last quarter. But that’s still a small part of its overall revenues, and it’s wholly overshadowed by the $5 billion in Ozempic sales for Novo Nordisk in the same three months.

Which goes to show that however the weight loss industry is changing, it’s still very big business.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 A mother who killed her boyfriend with a hunting knife was jailed for eight-and-a-half years yesterday. Dionne Christie had been accused of murder, before being convicted of the reduced charge of culpable homicide. Jurors concluded she had been acting under provocation. (Mail)

📣 Rangers’ largest shareholder says a takeover of the club by an American consortium has more than a “90% chance” of being completed, and could happen next month. (STV)

📣 Edinburgh Airport will be busy this summer: its chief executive has said it expects to break its record day, set last summer, ten times this summer. The airport is embarking on an investment programme to add new aircraft stands, a longer access pier, more gates and space for passengers. (Scotsman)

AROUND THE UK

📣 The Israeli embassy in west London was said to be the target of an Iranian terror plot that was foiled with just hours to spare last week. (Times £) (Mail)

📣 Speculation over the future of Chancellor Rachel Reeves is growing: demands for a change of policy on the deeply unpopular winter fuel allowance cuts for 10 million pensioners, as well as Reform’s performance in last week’s local government elections, are increasing pressure for a ministerial reshuffle. (Independent)

📣 Interest rates are expected to be cut today to 4.25% from 4.5%, with more cuts expected later in the year. Today’s announcement will come at 12.02pm, two minutes later because of the VE day silence at noon. (BBC)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 Pakistan’s defence minister has warned there is a “clear and present danger” of nuclear escalation with India after Indian strikes killed 31 people. (Independent)

🌎 Cardinals will return to the Sistine Chapel today to continue their voting on a new pope, after the first conclave ballot last night failed to find a winner. (BBC Live coverage)

🌎 Food rations for a million refugees in Uganda have been entirely cut off this week amid a funding crisis at the United Nations World Food Programme, caused by heavy cuts by the US and European nations. (Guardian)

🌎 Bad news in Brazil: Scorpions are “taking over” cities, with reports of stings up 250%. (Guardian)

SPORT

⚽️ Paris Saint-Germain booked their place in the Champions League final last night, beating Arsenal 2-1 in Paris to add a margin of comfort to their 1-0 advantage from the first leg. They’ll play Inter Milan for the trophy, and will fancy their chances. (Guardian)

🏉 The British and Irish Lions squad is announced later: David Barnes tries to anticipate who’ll be picked but finds it’s “like playing chess in a hall of mirrors - every move feels right until it isn’t”. (The Offside Line)