THE BIG STORIES
Trump steps back from the brink | Spit test hope for prostate cancer | The world’s top airports named

📣It’s being viewed as “one of the biggest economic policy reversals in modern presidential history”: Donald Trump’s decision to “pause” his most punitive tariffs on dozens of countries around the world, with the notable exception of China, came only hours after they had come into effect, and a week after their announcement on “Liberation Day”. (BBC) (Yahoo Finance)

❓Today’s Early Line takes a look at why he might have made the decision, later. But, first, here are the other key lines this morning:

• Stock markets have welcomed Trump’s decision: the S&P 500 soared 9.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 was up 12%, a scale of rise not seen since 2008 and the global financial crisis. Overnight, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 8%, and China’s Hang Seng up a more modest 2.9% at send time. (AP)

• A trade war between China and the US looms after the US bumped its tariff up to 125%. China exports $400 billion of goods a year to the US: it will now have to unveil a range of stimulus measures, which could include cutting interest rates, borrowing and hand-outs, to keep its economy on track. (CNN) (WSJ £)

• What we know about Donald Trump’s about turn - including which tariffs are included. (USA Today)

📣 A simple spit test can predict prostate cancer more effectively than the current blood test, according to a study. “It could be possible to turn the tide on prostate cancer,” said Professor Ros Eeles, who led the research. (Sky News)

📣 The world’s best airports have been named for 2025… with Singapore’s Changi regaining top spot, edging out last year’s winner, Doha’s Hamad International. A big factor in Changi’s win was the quality of its toilets.

• Paris Charles de Gaulle is Europe’s top airport (really?)

• Rome Fiumicino, Munich and Zurich also made the top 10.

• The best British airport is London Heathrow, in at 22nd (down one place from last year).

• No Scottish airport made the top 100, to nobody’s great surprise. (Skytrax)

IDEAS
What forced Trump to back down?

🗣️ He was supposed to be taking a hard line. Yet yesterday at noon, one week on from his “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, Donald Trump backed down on his ruinously high tariffs on imports - with the notable exception of those on imports from China.

Why?

Most observers are pointing towards the bond market. In previous editions of The Early Line we’ve highlighted how observers were becoming worried about how Treasury bonds - which the US Government uses to finance itself - were being priced.

These bonds are usually a safe haven: something for traders to buy and get a modest return on when other markets, especially the stock market, are getting too volatile for their taste. That’s why bonds usually do well in a stock market crisis.

But, even as the stock market plunged over the last week, bond prices were moving down too, while bond yields - the interest rate on those bonds - was moving up. That combination pointed to some form of distress - nobody is quite sure, yet, what the problem was - in the financial system.

It may have been that hedge funds needed to sell their bonds to meet margin calls, where brokers demanded more hard cash be deposited in their accounts to cover losses on trades. That forced sale would force bond prices down, fast.

Either way, experienced voices were alarmed. The New Yorker notes that Lawrence Summers, a former US Treasury Secretary, warned online that “developments in the last 24 hours suggest we may be headed for serious financial crisis wholly induced by US government tariff policy.”

Today’s FT quotes Trump as saying he was swayed by an interview with JPMorgan’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, on Fox Business. Dimon warned the US was probably headed for recession, saying: “I’m taking a calm view, but I think it could get worse if we don’t make some progress here.”

And, as Andrew Neil pointed out, low bond prices and high yields makes it harder for the US government to service its debt. “US federal government must refinance $9 trillion in sovereign debt maturities this year plus another $2.5 trillion in fresh borrowing,” he wrote on X yesterday. “Foreign capital usually picks up a big part of this tab. Good luck with that this year, Mr Trump.”

Political pressure played a part, too. At least three Republican senators urged Trump directly to shift his strategy in the face of “what was shaping up to be a global fiscal calamity,” reports Semafor.

Markets roared back after the news. But we start to learn, from today, what damage has been done - to our savings, and to the American dollar’s status as a safe haven. After the events of the last week, few will think this couldn’t happen again.

• Why Trump backed down on tariffs (The New Yorker, free)

• Why did Donald Trump buckle? (FT £)

• Republican lawmakers lobbied Trump to shift tariff strategy (Semafor)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Former world snooker champion Graham Dott has been charged with child sex offences. The Scot, from Larkhall, faces historical charges relating to two children. He’s expected to appear in court on 11 June. (BBC)

📣 Edinburgh Academy has scrapped its scholarships and bursaries for low-income families to protect its fee-paying families from the additional cost of VAT. (The Times £)

📣 Fire engulfed a battery recycling plant in North Ayrshire exactly a year after another huge fire at the same place. Locals said explosions “sounded like it was a terrorist attack”. (STV)

AROUND THE UK

📣 The ex-partner of a millionaire horse racing tipster accused of torturing and filming the abuse has warned someone could die if he is not stopped. Kevin Booth was given a worldwide travel ban after a Scottish civil court heard how he attacked his victims in an underground chamber at his remote Highland home. Booth denies the allegations. (BBC)

📣 Hamas is appealing against the UK government’s decision to designate it a terror group, saying the ruling breaches the European Convention on Human Rights. (The Times £)

📣 Influencer and self-proclaimed “misogynist” Andrew Tate pointed a gun in a woman's face and said "you're going to do as I say or there'll be hell to pay", according to one of four UK women suing him. Court documents also contain detailed accounts of rape, assault and coercive control. Tate denies the claims. (BBC has the exclusive)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 The Food and Drink Federation says its sector is worth £5.2 billion to the Scottish economy, a third of the country’s manufacturing output and worth 47,000 jobs, but needs Scottish Government backing to continue its growth. (The Scotsman)

💰 The Royal Bank of Scotland’s growth tracker survey put Scotland second-bottom among the UK regions and nations for economic growth last month, with output falling at the fastest pace since November 2022. Private sector employment, however, didn’t fall nearly as fast. (The Herald)

SPORT

⚽️ More terrific goals in last night’s Champions’ League: Aston Villa will have their work cut out next week after losing 3-1 to PSG in Paris. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s strike was spectacular, and fellow Scots will enjoy John McGinn’s work for Villa’s goal. (🎥 See the highlights) (Report - Guardian)

⚽️ Barcelona thumped Borussia Dortmund 4-0 to more or less book their spot in the semi-finals. (🎥 See the highlights) (Report - BBC)

⚽️ It’s the turn of the Europa League tonight: Rangers take to the pitch in Glasgow to play Athletic Bilbao with nobody quite sure which version of performance they’ll offer, or which players will be chosen to deliver it.

After Saturday’s embarrassing 2-0 defeat at home to Hibs, it’s expected that interim coach Barry Ferguson has some decisions to make, not least if he persists with goalkeeper Jack Butland and forward Cyriel Dessers.

Both have let the side down in the league… but they, and the whole side, appear to leave their best for Thursday nights. Ferguson says it’s been “a long couple of days” as he puzzles it out. (Daily Record) (The Scotsman) (Daily Mail)