In your briefing today:

📣 The Holyrood election campaign has entered its final day of campaigning today, with the dimensions of the final result far from clear. While the SNP, in power for 19 years, is expected to be the biggest party, the scale of its win is uncertain.

A majority would, according to its leader John Swinney, immediately spark a demand for talks on a second independence referendum. Anything less could - depending on other parties’ performance - spark a scramble to construct a coalition, and a programme for government. (BBC)

📣 Across the rest of the UK, there’s a final sprint to secure votes for council and mayoral elections in England, and for the Welsh assembly. Plaid Cymru and Reform are tussling for power in Cardiff, with Labour relegated to a distant third place after 27 years of being the biggest party in the Senedd. (BBC) (ITVX)

📣 Donald Trump has put “Project Freedom” - the effort to move ships stranded in the Gulf out to open sea via the Strait of Hormuz - on hold, and claims there’s been “great progress” in talks with Iran. (Independent)

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📣 Parents are increasingly using AI and covert recordings of teachers as part of a “rising tide of harassment in Scottish schools”, according to a teaching union. (Scotsman)

📣 Scotland has fallen behind the rest of the UK in house purchases, despite having some of the most affordable housing stock. There was a jump in mortgage lending last year: it was far smaller here. (The Herald has the exclusive)

📣 An Inverness man has spoken of how he needed to have a third of his penis removed to save his life, after he was diagnosed with penile cancer. (BBC)

📣 The cruise ship at the centre of a hantavirus outbreak is to sail to the Canary Islands. Global health authorities believe the virus is spreading among passengers on the stricken ship, but say the risk to global health is low. (Independent - live coverage)

📣 Thousands of holidays could be ruined by flight cancellations as the fuel crisis bites. (Sun)

📣 Measures to stop prison drone deliveries of drugs and weapons for prisoners are being hampered… by crumbling Victorian walls. (Guardian)

📣 Apple has agreed to pay $250 million to some iPhone users to end a lawsuit brought after the company was accused of misleading consumers about AI features it failed to deliver. (BBC)

⚽️ Arsenal secured their place in this season’s Champions League final with a 1-0 home victory over Atletico Madrid, sparking wild celebrations in North London and, writes David Hytner, exorcising “the ghosts of previous near misses under Mikel Arteta”. (Guardian) (🎥 Highlights)

⚽️ In the Championship, Dunfermline beat Arbroath 1-0 in the first home leg of their Premiership playoff quarterfinal. (Herald) (🎥 Highlights)

🗣️ The sun has risen on the last day of campaigning of a Scottish election which was eagerly anticipated for months, but which has ended up relatively undramatic: like an over-hyped football match which has ended up in a boring 0-0 draw.

Partly that’s because the SNP has maintained such a dominant lead since the start, there’s been no sense of jeopardy to keep politicians on their toes, magnify the importance of any policy spats or individual errors and - vitally - keep over-worked political correspondents and columnists entertained.

But the consequences of the election are real: the Scottish Parliament has a real impact on the day-to-day lives of Scots, to an extent that maybe seems hard to believe for people who don’t live here, because of its influence over health, education and social policy.

And, as we’ve reported in this briefing over the last few weeks, there are real policy differences between the parties - not least the issue of whether Scotland should be an independent country or not.

So it does all still matter. And, despite the SNP’s commanding lead, there is some evidence to suggest the final result is still in the balance. To employ another footballing cliche: it’s all to play for.

Why so? The opinion polls we’ve been seeing are never a straightforward totting up of voters’ views, one way or the other: they’re increasingly complex analyses.

And, as Chris McCall reports today (£), small shifts in sentiment - say, from the large block (one in five) voters who have yet to make up their minds could have a big impact. In 10 constituencies, the SNP is currently projected to win by less than 5%. It wouldn’t take many voters to pick a rival - or even decide not to vote - to hand those seats to someone unexpected by the pollsters.

Some voters say they won’t make up their minds until they enter the voting booth. They’re honest: research shows an even larger block of voters rely, to use the modern term, on “vibes” - and decide late.

Those choices would, in turn, either hand the SNP a handsome victory - or mean it is trying to form a minority government - with John Swinney’s “day one” plan to request a second independence referendum either swinging into action, or being cast into deep freeze.

Then there are swing voters. In the 2021 vote, tactical voting was seen to have had a real impact. And there’s been a big push among anti-SNP campaign groups for more this time.

There are at least two tactical voting websites to help voters who’ve decided they broadly either want to to “stop the SNP” or “stop Reform and the Tories”. I can’t vouch for the accuracy of either.

And, finally, with a number of constituencies having new boundaries (blame Scotland’s population slowly moving east), many are in a very different shape to 2021.

Most media in Scotland - at least that which expresses an opinion - is ranged against the SNP. Of the most widely read titles, The Daily Record, which I edit, backs Labour as has (largely) been its tradition - but does so within a broad call for change and a better parliament. The Scottish Sun pushes for its readers to “kick ‘em in the nats” and vote tactically to remove the SNP, and offers its own tactical voting guide.

The Scottish Daily Mail also advises against voting SNP today, and warm words for - and from - Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay, although its leader (in print) also suggests tactical votes - something the title has been pushing since the start of the campaign.

The National has, as far as I can tell, yet to publish its election advice, but we can assume it will be a lone voice in supporting the SNP.

Will any of this have much sway? Media researchers have attempted to calculate the influence of all these carefully worded leaders and columns for years, and some think they’re increasingly irrelevant.

But in a race with small margins, it might be the cumulative noise that either puts people off entirely or makes tiny shifts that add up to a more substantive electoral result.

We’ll see. Polls open at 7am tomorrow, with results due throughout the day on Friday.

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