In your briefing today:

📣 Health Secretary Wes Streeting is expected to launch a leadership bid against Prime Minister Keir Starmer today. And it appears this morning that the way has been cleared for Angela Rayner to also join the race: the Guardian reports she was cleared by HMRC over her tax affairs, and she’s settled her unpaid tax bill. (BBC)

📣 The King’s Speech set out the Starmer administration’s plans for the coming year’s legislation: not yet an entirely academic exercise, although some observers were as scathing about what was not included in the speech as what was. (BBC)

📣 The Duke of Edinburgh joined MSPs for the Kirking of Parliament in Edinburgh, the ceremonial church service which marks the opening of a new parliamentary session. (BBC)

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📣 The entire Queen Elizabeth University Hospital campus should undergo a safety review, an expert has said. (BBC)

📣 A man who violently shook a baby, leaving her with permanent brain damage, has been jailed for 11 years. (BBC)

📣 There are fears the beautiful Puck’s Glen walking trail near Dunoon, on the west coast of Scotland, may never reopen after storms damaged the path. (Scotsman)

📣 The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of the year - with far better performance in March than economists had expected. That follows figures in February, which had also been unexpectedly good. (BBC)

📣 Chinese leader Xi Jinping has offered a stark warning of conflict between his country and the US during a summit between the two countries. (AP)

📣 Police are still trying to identify the bodies of two women pulled from the sea in Brighton early yesterday. (Independent)

📣 Nigel Farage is facing a parliamentary standards probe after not declaring a £5 million donation before the last general election. (Mirror)

📣 Ted Lesso actor Cristo Fernandez has fulfilled his ambition of playing professional football - by singing for US second-tier side El Paso Locomotive, aged 35, and 20 years after a knee injury appeared to end his pro dreams. (ESPN)

⚽️ The penultimate round of games in the Scottish Premiership ended in a furious row after Celtic - drawing 2-2 with Motherwell - were awarded a penalty, deep into stoppage time. It was converted, giving Celtic a realistic chance of winning the title come Saturday. They host Hearts at Parkhead on the final day: a win would see them crowned champions.

The controversial penalty was awarded after a video (VAR) review. Replays showed Motherwell’s Sam Nicholson appear to head - not handle - the ball firmly in the box to clear. But his hand was close to his head - pushed there by the movement of Celtic defender Austin Trusty.

Football’s rules demand that handball happen, be deliberate, and that the hand has made the body unnaturally bigger. Rules on VAR also say it should only overrule clear errors. None of these points was activated... but the penalty was awarded anyway, and Kelechi Ihenacho converted. (Report & 🎥 highlights)

⚽️ Rangers sank 2-1 to Hibs at Ibrox, with a tribute to departing captain James Tavernier marred by a “strop” which saw the injured player refuse to be a substitute on his final home game. (Daily Record)

🗣️ It looks likely we’re about to change Prime Minister. And you can be sure there will be a great deal of discussions - even among the pretenders to Downing Street themselves - about who “the city”, or “markets”, or “traders”, wants to win.

One or two might even try to dismiss the financial system's importance. Like Paula Barker MP, for instance, the Labour MP for Liverpool Wavertree, who said “the markets will have to fall in line” should Andy Burnham become Prime Minister.

Barker had been hailing Burnham as a “fantastic politician” and the only person likely to beat Keir Starmer in a leadership election. She added that investors would view the UK as “the best place to be” if the government unveiled “progressive policies that do speak to our communities”.

The City reaction to Barker’s comments was not kind: to paraphrase, many expressed surprise that an MP failed to understand markets could not be coerced into lending a country at a low rate.

The clearest commentary I’ve seen came, funnily enough, from left-wing journalist and activist Paul Mason. If you don’t understand how the government debt market works - and it’s a tricky subject - his explanation is easy to understand and - as far as I can tell - accurate.

His warning: “Put simply, ‘defying the bond market’ is like trying to defy gravity. But if you recognise the laws of gravity, and combine them with thermodynamics, you can fly from here to Australia without stopping.”

He includes two charts on the growing gulf between what this country raises in taxation, and what it will need to spend on its current commitments - stretching forward decades - which are sobering.

“If you are in the business of delivering social justice, through growth, high wages and a generous welfare system,” he writes, “these two charts should be tattooed inside your eyelids”.

It’s a fascinating read.

Other views are available, of course. But it’s noticeable that - even when they come from Jim O’Neill, the economist and former Conservative minister - they still sound quite a bit like Mason’s. “We have got to get rid of the triple lock,” O’Neil told CNBC, referencing the state pension guarantee that sees it increase annually by the highest of three metrics; consumer price inflation, average earnings growth, or a minimum of 2.5%.

“We have got to do something about very misallocated welfare payments,” he added. “We have got to do something substantial about how we tax the housing market. And we’ve got to do something to stop this... persistent belief that, whatever happens, we’re going to spend more and more of our government money on rising NHS costs.”

Who, then, would gilt (UK debt) investors like to see in charge of the country, then?

Their view is firm. And you won’t be surprised to hear that Andy Burnham gets a rough time, perhaps informed by the likes of Barker’s comments above, and those from Burnham himself at the start of the year when he told the New Statesman (£) that Labour had to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets”.

According to the FT’s poll of ten fund managers (£), six thought he’d be the least market-friendly of all the likely options. The winner? A clear vote for Wes Streeting, with nine saying that the health secretary was the best pick of a bunch that also included Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband.

That was no ringing endorsement, however. “‘How long can we assume any one of them will last?’ said one fund manager, who declined to choose between the candidates. ‘You will need high yields to lend to the UK as insurance protection for handing over cash for some time to come.’”

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