TODAY’S WEATHER

☔️ While Europe suffers a heatwave, we’ll suffer the rain (and be glad?). Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen will all see extended bouts of rain today, although the west will clear first. Four hundred miles to the south, London continues to bake. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Starmer faces down his party… and loses | UK’s hottest day, as Europe bakes | Ceasefire hopes

📣 Sir Keir Starmer suffered a blow to his authority after being forced to back down on a key part of his government’s programme, watering down welfare reforms to placate a mass rebellion of Labour MPs.

The key concession was to ditch cuts to disability benefits that had been predicted to push 150,000 people into relative poverty. It came after the Prime Minister insisted the reform would take place, and after a furious behind-the-scenes campaign aimed at defusing the rebellion. The futures of Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall are now also in doubt. (BBC)

• Beth Rigby: The PM faced down his party on welfare and lost. I suspect things may only get worse. (Sky News)

• Starmer emerges from UK welfare fight weaker and billions in the red (🎁Bloomberg - free to read)

• Chris Mason & Henry Zeffman: “The astonishing thing about this row is Sir Keir Starmer has a mandate and a majority.” (BBC)

• Today’s Early Line rounds up all the reaction below ⬇️

📣 The UK recorded the hottest day of the year yesterday, with temperatures passing 34 degrees in central London. “Lethal heat,” says Politico, “is Europe’s new reality”, with thousands of deaths related to the heatwave expected across the continent in the days ahead. (Politico)

• For the UK, yesterday was expected to be the peak of the current heatwave (Independent)

• Much of Europe is in the grip of a ferocious heatwave - here’s why (CNN)

• There are dramatic pictures of rare “roll clouds” and wildfires across Europe. Politico has a gallery. (Politico)

• There are concerns for player safety as the Women’s Euros kick off in Switzerland today. (Sky News)

• More than 80% of the UK’s farmers are worried about the impact of climate change on their livelihood. (Guardian)

📣 Donald Trump claims Israel has accepted terms for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, and urged Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen. (AP) (Guardian)

IDEAS
One year in, critics round on a new low for Starmer’s leadership

🗣️ On Saturday, Labour will celebrate a year in power. Keir Starmer told his cabinet yesterday to look back with a “sense of pride and achievement” on the last 12 months, according to the FT (£). But it’s unlikely the anniversary party in Downing Street will be as raucous as those held there during Covid.

The U-turn on welfare cuts of the last week only set the seal on a testing first 12 months where the new Government has grappled with spending cuts, sluggish economic growth, the continued rise of Reform UK and a busy foreign agenda dominated by the return of Donald Trump to power.

The U-turns on welfare reform, required to get a bill passed last night, will go down as the government’s worst moment: a dramatic climbdown which leaves Keir Starmer’s authority in doubt, rebellious backbench MPs dissatisfied and a £2.5 billion budgetary hole that Rachel Reeves will have to fill in her autumn statement, either with more cuts, or tax rises. Neither will go down well.

🗣️“The climbdown, when it finally came, was seismic,” says the Times’ report. “The climbdown represents a significant blow to both Starmer’s authority and the exchequer. The prime minister had staked his reputation on the welfare reforms, citing them as evidence that he was prepared to make the “difficult” decisions. The current system, he said, was broken and people deserved the dignity of work rather than a life on benefits.

“As Starmer approaches his one-year anniversary on Saturday, the balance of power has tipped firmly in favour of backbenchers, who will only be emboldened by the U-turn. If pushed, Starmer will back down.” (Times £)

🗣️The Telegraph finds more blunt language from MPs. “It makes the entire thing a total clusterf--- of Godzilla proportions,” said one MP on Tuesday night. “Only the gods know how this cobbled-together Bill does anything it’s supposed to any more.” (Telegraph £)

🗣️It was all too late, says columnist Rafael Behr. “The optimal time for Downing Street to have started paying attention to Labour MPs’ complaints about disability benefit cuts was before the uprising threatened to torpedo a flagship government bill,” he writes. “Withdrawing financial support from people with disabilities was always going to be a hard sell to Labour MPs. Blurring the line between reform and fiscal parsimony didn’t help. […] That mistrust aggravates misgiving about Keir Starmer’s strategy and the faultiness of his political antennae.” (Guardian)

🗣️Tom Belger finds some furious MPs on the backbenches. “‘Omnishambles.’ ‘Crazy, man.’ ‘Describing it as chaos now feels like an understatement.’ Just a few of the snap verdicts from MPs across parties on the government’s second welfare climbdown, carried out in the unholiest of fashions in the middle of the debate itself – with fresh concessions unveiled at the last possible minute just before MPs voted, and just hours after Liz Kendall had suggested otherwise.”

At least, he writes, the row debunks the idea that all MPs are the same, or are too tribal. And he manages to find one or two other “faintest of silver linings. Perhaps”. (LabourList)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Universities have enabled violence and harassment of gender critical academics, a report has found. The UK government-commissioned report by Professor Alice Sullivan found that “researchers investigating vital issues have been subjected to sustained campaigns of intimidation simply for acknowledging the biological and social importance of sex.”

The Scotsman tells of Scottish academics being trained in “duck and cover” manoeuvres should they be attacked while speaking in public. (Scotsman) (Times £)

📣 The largest cannabis farm ever found in Scotland has been uncovered in a police raid. Around 5,000 plants were found in a former college building in Kirkcaldy last week. (BBC)

📣 Anas Sarwar has ruled out raising income tax if he becomes First Minister, saying he wants “closer alignment” on tax bands between Scotland and England. But the Scottish Labour leader shied away from committing to ending cross-border tax levels. (Herald)

AROUND THE UK

📣 Police have arrested three former managers who worked at the same hospital as convicted killer Lucy Letby have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter. (Independent)

📣 The historic TSB brand could vanish from our high streets after the bank was bought by Santander, creating the UK’s third-biggest bank. (Sky News)

📣 Thousands of women with late-stage breast cancer could be denied access to life-extending medication because of an “unfair” NHS drug approval process, a charity has claimed. (Independent)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 The US Senate eventually passed Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” - of tax breaks and spending cuts - but it only just crossed the line, requiring Vice President JD Vance to use his vote as tie-breaker. (AP) (BBC)

• The bill is Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending policy. Its progress represents a political win in Washington. But it’s taken huge effort to get it passed: here are its key provisions. (Sky News)

🌎 The jury in Sean “Diddy” Combs’ sex trafficking trial said it had reached a verdict on four of the five charges against the hip-hop mogul, but was stuck on the final - and most serious - charge of racketeering conspiracy. Deliberations continue. (AP)

• A legal analyst tells the Mail there’s a “grim” clue as to Combs’ fate in the jurors’ note to the judge. Combs himself was also said to have looked shaken as the news was relayed. (Mail)

🌎 In a keenly-awaited video message, the Dalai Lama has confirmed he will have a successor, continuing the centuries-old institution. (BBC live coverage)

SPORT

🎾 British number one Jack Draper made it through his opening test at Wimbledon, playing well against Sebastian Baez before his opponent retired, injured. (BBC)

⚽️ The Women’s Euro 2025 gets going tonight - Iceland meet Finland at 5pm, before hosts Switzerland meet Norway at 8pm. England doesn’t get going until Saturday, when they meet France. The Guardian runs the rule over the leading contenders. (Guardian)

⚽️ Rangers are close to a deal for two players: Bournemouth midfielder Joe Rothwell is thought to have signed on the dotted line while Leicester defender Conor Coady could be signed today. (Sun)

⚽️ Celtic’s Nicolas Kuhn is in demand with RB Leipzig being told the asking price for the German star who did so well last season. (Record)

⚽️ Graham McGarry reviews Ann Budge’s legacy at Hearts. “What will never be forgotten is that in Hearts’ direst moment, Budge stepped up and saved the club,” he writes. (Herald)