+++ COMING UP: Two Spring Statement paid subscriber specials +++

📣 Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver a hotly-anticipated Spring Statement next week.

The statement will have ramifications across the economy, from benefits to devolved spending here in Scotland, for years to come. The political impact could be defining for the Starmer government.

To help you quickly understand the statement's content and reaction to it, I’m planning two special subscriber-only editions: one at midday on Sunday, March 23rd, 2025, and the other at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, March 26th, 2025.

The Sunday newsletter will round up the background, the early leaks and commentary. The Wednesday edition will bring you key points and analysis on the announcement itself.

Both will feature The Early Line’s unique broad perspective on analysis and reaction from across the media and political spectrum. I’ll also draw on my own political contacts to give you a view you won’t get elsewhere.

Both will be valuable if you need to brief others on the statement, or just want to cut through the noise and understand the implications yourself.

They will only be sent to The Early Line’s paid members on monthly or annual plans. To receive yours, upgrade your membership now, from only £6.99.

THE BIG STORIES
Benefits pressure builds for Starmer | Trump to speak to Putin | Matheson standing down

📣 Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure from inside his own party over plans to cut welfare cuts “for some of the UK’s most severely disabled people”. The proposals are still being formed, and are changing because of the row - it’s being reported that personal independent payments (PIP) will not, now, be frozen. But eligibility for the benefit is still likely to be tightened. (Guardian)

• That decision to not freeze PIP payments means Rachel Reeves may have to raise taxes next week (Independent)

• Faisal Islam’s explainer on Labour’s plans for the benefits system exposes the huge complexity - and stakes - facing Rachel Reeves, and the potential impact on vulnerable lives. (BBC)

📣 Donald Trump says he will talk to Vladimir Putin tomorrow to discuss a cease-fire proposal. Trump told reporters overnight that he was still optimistic of winning a 30-day halt in fighting, despite Putin’s pessimistic statements last week. “A lot of work” had gone in over the weekend, and they’d see if they have “something to announce” tomorrow. (BBC)

📣 Disgraced former health secretary Michael Matheson has confirmed he’ll be standing down as an MSP at the Holyrood election next year. Mathieson was handed the parliament’s longest-ever ban last year after breaking expenses rules over an £11,000 data roaming bill. He eventually paid the money back and apologised.

But it was his handling of the scandal, which made him appear evasive and which prolonged the scandal over months, that finished his political career. He didn’t understand that to the end, saying in January - after the fuss had finally died down - that the furore was “completely blown out of all proportion”, thus sparking another round of condemnation. (BBC) (Daily Mail)

IDEAS
Something from the weekend

A wrap-up of items that caught the eye

🗣️Once, students did not aspire to work in national security, reckons Ian Leslie. “Hostility to the arms industry among educated young liberals in America was a persistent feature of late twentieth century society, at least since the Vietnam War. In this century, it was reinforced by failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. But as those events recede from memory, and modern warfare merges with the tech and gaming industry, while Russia and China loom large, students at elite schools may be more willing to be seen to be interested in it.” (Ian Leslie)

🗣️More on the end of Nicola Sturgeon’s political career: Gillian Bowditch reflected that she’d written more than 800 pieces on Sturgeon over the years, and saw her change “from political ingenue to the most powerful woman in Scotland”. Sturgeon “leaves behind a Scotland in which women - to their complete consternation - have had to fight for their basic rights”. (Sunday Times £)

🗣️I didn’t expect my former colleague Susan Dalgety to have many kind words for Sturgeon: Dalgety has been at the vanguard of those women fighting for their rights in the face of Sturgeon’s disdain and horrible abuse online. Her piece on Saturday was more nuanced than I (perhaps unfairly) expected, but damning in the end: “Irrelevance – this is Sturgeon’s legacy. She was a mediocre, thin-skinned politician who demanded complete loyalty for fear of losing control. Never a deep political thinker nor a skilled strategist, she rose to prominence as Alex Salmond’s protégé, only to turn on him when it appeared expedient to do so.” (The Scotsman)

🗣️That said, The Sunday Times long read “Whatever happened to Jo Swinson”, had me reflecting on what a meat grinder politics is (I exclude the Michael Matheson situation from this analysis…) I don’t know Jo and she certainly made political mistakes in her time, but she was clearly able and ambitious. That said, it appears Swinson is just fine outside politics, running a non-profit and raising a family. (Sunday Times £)

AROUND SCOTLAND & THE UK

📣 Rachel Reeves will increase pressure on regulators to “slash red tape” at a meeting in Downing Street today, and announce plans to cut regulations including restricting merger investigations by the UK competition watchdog. Eight watchdogs are attending the meeting, including the Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority, and the Health and Safety Executive. (City AM)

📣 Police used stop and search powers to prevent 90 fans entering the Old Firm match at Celtic Park yesterday. The fans were all part of a group, mostly masked, who refused to be searched by police. (STV)

📣 The Glen Sannox ferry is back sailing after cracks in her hull were fixed. (BBC)

📣 Education Minister Jenny Gilruth says the SNP will “stand by” free University tuition fees despite calls for the system to be reviewed in the face of Scotland’s higher education funding problems. (BBC)

📣 Part of the Online Safety Act comes into effect today, meaning more than 100,000 online services will face fines if they don’t tackle illegal content, including fraud, terror and child abuse material. Companies that fail to comply face fines of up to £18m or 10% of worldwide revenue, which would add up to billions in the case of Meta or Google. (Guardian)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 Chinese leader Xi Jinping will likely miss an upcoming summit intended to mark 50 years of diplomatic relations between the European Union and China. The snub has confirmed the view of China watchers in Brussels that China “will not add concrete action to its warm words about the need to co-operate”. (Semafor)

• But “high-level representatives” from China will attend a trade event in Glasgow this week. The Herald (£) has the exclusive.

🌎 “Unusually vicious weather” across multiple US states left at least 39 people dead and a trail of destruction over the weekend. Weather warnings remain in place from Florida all the way to New Jersey. (AP)

🌎 Scientists trapped in the Antarctic for the next ten months have pleaded for rescue, claiming a member of their group has “threatened to kill” another team member, and sexually assaulted another. The group is two weeks’ travel - 2,500 miles - from help, even if extreme weather allows. (Daily Mail)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 The UK’s manufacturing sector has “hit the buffers” according to a new survey from trade body Make UK. Firms are freezing recruitment and considering cuts while investment is delayed and scrapped. Output has fallen in the first quarter, at a time of year when it is usually strong. (Independent) (Times £)

💰 Scottish newbuild homes are “wasting the sun” because their solar panels are being fitted without any batteries. An installer is calling for changes to the law to force solar and storage to be fitted as standard. (Scotsman)

SPORT

⚽️ It was a breathless day of football yesterday, the Old Firm serving up a brilliant ding-dong battle in the East End of Glasgow to get things started. Rangers won with a spectacular Hamza Igamane strike late on, after Celtic had clawed their way back to 2-2. The game, in the end, was meaningless - Celtic are strolling the league - but Rangers fans will take heart from a second successive win over their great rivals. And voices suggesting Barry Ferguson take charge permanently will grow louder. (🎥 Highlights) (Daily Record) (The Sun) (The Scotsman)

• Dundee beat their rivals United at Tannadice for the first time in 21 years in another madcap derby. (🎥 Highlights) (Daily Record) (Sky Sports)

• They may just be another petro-state funded machine now, but it was hard not to enjoy Newcastle fans’ reaction to their first cup win since the 1960s. Don’t tell them the Carabao cup is meaningless… (🎥 Highlights) (Guardian)

🏉 Scotland coach Gregor Townsend said he had “mixed feelings” over this year’s Six Nations, but has no intention of walking away from the job after Scotland’s fourth-place finish. (Scotsman)

• Debrief: Disappointed and frustrated but Gregor Townsend still sees progress (The Offside Line)