Starmer challenges Trump's plan for Ukraine

PLUS: a "heatwave" is on the way, scandals face the Vatican after Francis, Scottish exam season begins, and Celtic could win the league

👋 Good morning! It’s Friday 25 April 2025, and I’m Neil McIntosh, editor of The Early Line. Thanks for reading.

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☁️ Today’s weather: A bright start in Glasgow but it’ll become a little more overcast later. Edinburgh and Aberdeen will be brighter through the day, before cloud gets heavier later. London will be a bit cloudy, but mild and dry. (Here’s the UK forecast). 🌞And, yes, a mini heatwave (or “nice weather” as we used to call it) will arrive next week.

And here’s all you need to know this morning:

THE BIG STORIES
Starmer challenges Trump’s plan for Ukraine | Scots disillusioned by politics | New Pentagon security fears

📣 Sir Keir Starmer has doubts about the Trump peace plan for Ukraine, telling the Telegraph that Ukraine must be allowed to decide the terms of any peace deal with Russia.

Talks on a potential deal have continued after this week’s London summit, with “the US holding the pen on the text and Western allies lobbying for changes”. At the centre of debate is the future of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine does not want to recognise the region as Russian. (Telegraph)

  • Boris Johnson has offered rare criticism of Trump’s plan, saying Ukraine would “get nothing” from the deal. (Guardian) (Johnson’s X/Twitter post)

  • Trump, in another rare rebuke, urged Putin to “STOP” after attacks on Kiev killed 12. (Independent)

📣 Scots feel “anxious, exhausted, angry and disconnected” from political institutions in Edinburgh and London, according to new polling by the Electoral Reform Society Scotland.

On a scale of zero to 10, political parties score an average of 3.1, and politicians 2.8. The UK Parliament scores 3.4, the Scottish Parliament 3.9 and local councils 4.1.

Respondents want more local decision-making and a more consensual political culture, but are divided on equality and diversity: 58% say it’s important, while 42% think it gets in the way. (The Herald has the exclusive)

📣 Yet more revelations about US Defence Secretary Pete Hesgeth and his cavalier approach to security: he had an internet connection in his office, bypassing the Pentagon’s security arrangements. (AP has the exclusive)

  • The Mail paints a typically vivid picture of “war at the Pentagon” today: “a new level of Shakespearean drama complete with back-stabbing aides, battling rivalries, an ambitious wife and an internal civil war involving the future of America's military.” (Daily Mail)

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FROM THE WEEKLY MAGAZINES
The coming Chinese century, Papal intrigue, and… Nigel Farage

In the next few years, either Beijing or Washington will emerge technologically and politically dominant over the other, armed with the most powerful technology mankind has yet created.”

Andrew Marr weighs up the struggle between the US and China, and sees only one winner

🗣️The New Statesman’s Andrew Marr looks at the “the conflict for supremacy” raging between Beijing and Washington, and calls a winner in his first paragraph: China.

“This isn’t a cheerful thing to say,” he says. “It has momentous consequences for the UK. But what is going on now, too often obscured by our local politics, is a unique combination of geopolitical and technological change that will rock the rest of this decade.”

The driving force: the rise of AI. Marr has been speaking to leading figures in the AI industry who believe we are nearing “the singularity” - the moment technological intelligence becomes uncontrollable and irreversible. He quotes one saying AI has “already probably achieved consciousness and [is] beyond human control”.

China will be better at this wrenching change this technological revolution will bring - and better-equipped to deal with the economic and social fallout. We, says Marr, should prepare for the Chinese century. (The New Statesman £)

🗣️ Pope Francis will be buried tomorrow. The intrigue and simmering scandal that has swirled around the Vatican may only, then, erupt.

That’s the broad message of a - frankly - astonishing cover story in this week’s Spectator by Damian Thompson. He’s a former editor-in-chief of the Catholic Herald and is - clearly - well-versed in whispers about several prominent Catholic figures. “The next Vicar of Christ,” writes Thompson, “will face challenges that dwarf those that confronted any incoming pope in living memory.

“The Church is mired in doctrinal confusion; its structures of government are fragmented; sexual scandals have been hushed up at the highest level; and it is staring into a financial abyss.”

Cue a laundry list of accusations, from blind eyes (at best) to abuse to financial scandal on an enormous scale. Did you, for instance, know the Vatican’s finances are a “catastrophe” with one element of that being a “disastrous” investment in a former Harrods warehouse in Knightsbridge that cost the Vatican £120m? Or that it has an unfunded pension liability of £1.5 billion? Nor did I.

A vignette worthy of a miniseries script: the papal chief of staff who admitted he had signed off on a $5 million invoice he knew to be “completely fictitious”. He denied being “a liar”, but told lawyers: “You said that I was not honest. I accept that.” (The Spectator £)

🗣️For The Economist, Nigel Farage is “the man Britain cannot ignore”. His return means “a new, more volatile era in British politics”. All of which becomes a little more real in the local elections in England next Thursday, in which his Reform UK is “poised to inflict heavy losses on the Conservatives”.

Why the concern? This incarnation of Farage brings “grave implications” for Britain and its role in Europe, warns the newspaper, because now he wants power, and Britain has an electoral system which could make it happen: “Today’s polling could give Reform over 230 seats; just a 2% increase might take its total close to 300, only 30 or so seats short of an absolute majority.”

“All these outcomes would be bad for Britain,” says the magazine, because his ideas would, “once again, make Britain poorer and more dysfunctional […] Britain has already spent one decade struggling to get by in the world Mr Farage created. It can ill afford a second.” (The Economist £)

 

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Scotland’s senior school pupils embark on exam season from today, with 132,000 young people sitting National 5s, Highers and Advanced Highers over the next month. (BBC)

Controversy has raged over Scotland’s exams in recent years: overall attainment has fallen, exams have been badly administered, and the attainment gap between rich and poor has widened despite government initiatives. (Attainment statistics)

📣 The convicted killer on the run from an open prison near Dundee has been spotted in the east end of his native Glasgow. The public has been warned not to approach Raymond McCourt, 59. (BBC)

📣 A convoy of former Second World War vessels will cross the North Sea next month to honour British and Norwegian heroes as part of the 80th anniversary of VE Day. During the war, the convoy smuggled elite soldiers, agents and freedom fighters to Nazi-occupied Norway, along with supplies. (Scotsman)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 The Home Secretary is considering a new “one in, one out” mobility scheme for young people in the UK and Europe. (The Times £)

📣 Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend the funeral of Pope Francis tomorrow in St Peter’s Square. Leaders from around the world will attend, including Sir Keir Starmer, the Prince of Wales and John Swinney. (BBC)

📣 Online safety campaigners are unimpressed by new rules from Ofcom intended to tackle legal but harmful content on websites, social media and apps. (Daily Mail) (Ofcom)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level for more than a year amid concerns that Donald Trump’s tariffs could drive up the cost of living. (Guardian)

  • But if you think it’s bad here… CEOs of huge US companies are warning that tariffs are making it “virtually impossible” to plan ahead. And US consumers are already rethinking leisure travel - which could have a knock-on effect on Scotland’s tourism industry. US visitors accounted for 20% of overseas visits to Scotland, and 34% of overseas spend, in 2023. (WSJ £)

💰 Apple plans to shift production of iPhones destined for the US market away from China, and produce them all in India. It will resolve a massive vulnerability for the company: as things stand, the mounting trade war between China and the US could badly disrupt its most profitable product line. (FT has the exclusive £)

SPORT

⚽️ Celtic could win the Scottish Premiership tomorrow with just a point against Dundee United - although Tannadice manager Jim Goodwin says they’ll do their best to delay the title party. That would mean Celtic could win it at Ibrox the following week. (BBC)

  • Celtic captain Callum McGregor says his side will rise to the challenge should new American owners revive Rangers next season. (Daily Record)

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👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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