THE BIG STORIES
80,000 Scottish children in ‘deep poverty’ | Canada goes to the polls | Sturgeon silence on gender verdict

📣 80,000 Scottish children live in “very deep poverty”, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation - a higher proportion of young people in the most extreme category of poverty than seen 30 years ago.

First Minister John Swinney has made eradicating child poverty his government’s central mission, but is now being warned that goal is now “almost impossible”. The Herald starts a three-day series on child poverty in Scotland with the news today. (The Herald has the exclusive).

• Nicola Killean, Children and Young People’s Commissioner Scotland: “It’s time for action to eradicate child poverty” (The Herald)

📣 Canada goes to the polls today in a snap election, the country’s politics transformed by Donald Trump’s trade war and sabre rattling. The country’s ruling Liberal Party, in power for a decade, was deeply unpopular only a few months ago. But the American President’s second term brought threats to its neighbour’s economy and sovereignty, suggesting the nation should become the 51st American state. That helped usher in a new Prime Minister in Mark Carney and - now - a possible extension to his party’s term in power. (AP)

• Canada’s elections: what you need to know (CNN)

• A ramming attack on a Filipino cultural festival in Vancouver, in which 11 people died, has shaken the country ahead of the vote today, but is not being treated as an act of terrorism. The suspect - now arrested - was said to have a history of mental health issues. (BBC)

📣 Nicola Sturgeon has remained tight-lipped on the Supreme Court’s ruling last week, “angrily” telling a reporter who asked: “I think my views are well-known”. She also refused to apologise to feminists she had previously accused of using the gender debate as a “cloak” for bigotry and transphobia. (Mail)

• Ros Foyer, general secretary of the Scottish Trades Union Congress, says the Supreme Court ruling is “hugely problematic”. (BBC)

IDEAS
The week ahead: a pivotal few days for UK politics

🗣️ You’re going to hear a lot about Reform UK this week. Nigel Farage’s right-wing party is expected to turn opinion poll leads into hard electoral success in council elections across England on Thursday. Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice tells The Independent today they’ll win hundreds of new seats.

There’s also a Westminster by-election: Runcorn and Helsby is up for grabs after former MP, Labour’s Mike Amesbury, was convicted and jailed (his sentence later suspended on appeal) for beating up a constituent. He had a decent majority of 14,696 votes, with Reform a distant second, at last year’s General Election.

But the circumstances aren’t promising for Labour, and it’s not just Amesbury’s unique approach to constituency business that’s the problem. They’re down in the polls nationally, struggling to get the economy firing after a cack-handed start to life in power and a very poorly-received budget in November. Keir Starmer’s government might have tacked right on immigration, overseas aid and gender recognition, but voters are restive. The reporting over the weekend from the constituency (Sky, FT £, BBC) suggests they’re ready to turn to Nigel Farage’s party in their droves.

In Scotland, another test for the established parties will come on June 5th, in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election triggered by the death of the SNP’s Christina McKelvie. Reform isn’t expected to come close to winning there. But Professor Curtice told the Herald it could take 10% of the vote, which would likely damage Labour’s chances of winning it from the SNP by splitting the protest vote.

Looking even further ahead, could Reform come close to winning any sort of power in Scotland next year, in our own elections? Polling suggests not, which is perhaps one of the reasons why last week’s anti-Reform “summit”, organised by First Minister John Swinney, attracted so much continuing ire over the weekend.

In the Herald, Kevin McKenna lambasted pictures from the summit as showing the First Minister “flanked by some of the most reactionary and intolerant people in Scottish public life.”

Writing in The Times (£), Alex Massie dismissed that gathering as “the same old people mouthing the same old platitudes in the same old style.” He suggested “low politics” explained the summit: “Reform’s rise is nevertheless plainly and obviously in the SNP’s interests too. The pair may happily feed off one another, each leveraging the fear of the other for their own benefit.”

It was “a mystery,” he said, why Russell Findlay and the Conservatives (who didn’t attend) could appreciate what was happening while Anas Sarwar and Alex Cole-Hamilton could not, said Massie.

In The Scotsman, Brian Wilson also thought Reform were the winners from the summit. “For those who recognise a clumsy political stunt, the image of 50 sombre figures assembled in Glasgow’s Merchant House for an ‘anti-extremism summit’ – some with one eye on their future Scottish Government funding – was a classic of the genre,” he wrote.

“In terms even of its ostensible intention, it was probably counter-productive. ‘If the whole Scottish establishment is against us, then we must be doing something right,’ quoth Nigel Farage in response to his party’s exclusion.”

Scotland isn’t divided by the far right, said Wilson. “Indeed, the two most divisive issues in recent times are ones with which Swinney is closely identified – the constitution and gender,” he said.

Wilson was warmer than Massie about Anas Sarwar’s attempts to “distance himself by exercising humility and understanding of why many - in Scotland as elsewhere - are looking for alternatives”.

But this week, both in the local elections and the Westminster by-election, we’re likely to see a combination of hard electoral maths and some frustrated voters reaching for Reform. The same maths could propel Farage to Downing Street - set out by The Economist (£) on its cover this week.

How the established parties choose to fight his rise will determine if this week was seen as Britain beginning its turn to the populist right, or a wobble along the way to something else.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Scottish GPs are threatening to strike over their workloads, with the BMA warning they “need to see definitive action” on budgets by this summer. (Daily Record)

📣 John Swinney said he was “very moved” after attending the Pope’s funeral in Rome. (BBC)

📣 The weekend’s Kiltwalk saw 19,000 step out to raise millions for charities across Scotland. (STV)

AROUND THE UK & THE WORLD

📣 The UK economy is expected to slow sharply for the next two years because of Donald Trump’s tariff war. (Guardian)

📣 The Vatican has released pictures of Pope Francis’s tomb at the Santa Maria Maggiore church in Rome, where he was laid to rest. (Independent)

📣 Trump’s plan to give Ukrainian land to Russia is a “capitulation”, Germany’s defense minister warned. (CNN)

📣 Beijing has seized a tiny sandbank in the South China Sea in an escalation of its long-running dispute with the Philippines over a group of islands. (BBC)

SPORT

⚽️ Celtic were crowned Scottish champions over the weekend, streets ahead of Rangers over the season. (🎥 See the highlights of their 5-0 win over Dundee United)

• Unsurprisingly, Cameron Carter-Vickers says they have “nothing to prove” when they travel to Ibrox for the final Old Firm game of the season this weekend. (Daily Mail)

⚽️ Liverpool were similarly out in front in England, and sealed the deal at an emotional Anfield, 5-1 against an abject Spurs side. Phil McNulty called it a moment “35 years in the making”. (BBC)

⚽️ Scott McTominay continues to enjoy life in Italy: his brace for Napoli against Torino won the game, propelled his side towards the Italian title, and broke a 63-year-old record - held by Denis Law - for the most goals scored in Serie A season by a Scotsman. (The Scotsman)

🏃‍♀️Eilish McColgan is on many of today’s front pages after smashing the Scottish marathon record on her debut at the distance, finishing eighth in London. (Herald)