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In your briefing today:

• New questions for prosecutors over collapse of China spy case

• Ideas: Why asking people what they think is trickier than it sounds

• Still no new manager at Ibrox… but Rangers are closing in on their man

📣 The Crown Prosecution Service faces questions over its decision not to pursue the China spy case after the UK government released statements from the deputy national security adviser warning of China’s espionage activities.

Matthew Collins noted the impact that spying could have on "the UK's economic prosperity and resilience" and “harm the interests and security of the UK”.

The statements come close to contradicting the director of public prosecutions’ claim that the case collapsed because evidence referring to China as a national security threat could not be obtained from the government. (BBC) (Guardian)

• Evidence scuppers main Tory line of attack - but questions remain (Guardian)

• Starmer accused of knowing China case would collapse - but doing nothing (Mail)

📣 Rachel Reeves is getting a lot of advice ahead of her budget, to be delivered next month: the Institute for Fiscal Studies is urging Rachel Reeves to be “bold” by cutting more and increasing taxes harder now, rather than face a “groundhog day'“ in future budgets. But the Scottish Retail Consortium is calling for restraint, amid fears Scottish businesses could see their taxes increase further. (The Scotsman)

• Reeves should consider welfare cuts in budget, says IFS (Guardian)

📣 France could sink further into political turmoil later today when the country’s current Prime Minister faces two attempts to topple him and his government.

Sébastien Lecornu needs to navigate two motions of confidence filed by President Emmanuel Macron’s fiercest opponents - the hard-left France Unbowed party and the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen.

Lecornu has postponed controversial pensions reform which was one of the most controversial parts of Macron’s legislative programme, and that move could help him survive. Defeat could force Macron into snap elections. (AP) (🎁Bloomberg - gift link)

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AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 A company linked to Baroness Michelle Mone has missed a deadline to repay almost £122 million to the government for supplying defective medical gowns to the UK Government at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Daily Record) (Guardian)

• PPE Medpro will be pursued “with everything we’ve got” says Wes Streeting (Sky News)

📣 Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay has said he is “pleased” the man who threw acid in his face was refused parole. (Daily Express)

📣 A man who murdered his girlfriend in a hot tub on Shetland has been jailed for a minimum of 25 years. (Sky News)

📣 Scotland’s biggest bonfire night has been cancelled just weeks before it was scheduled, with organisers of the Edinburgh event saying they wanted to “allow their team to refresh”. (The Sun)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 The International Monetary Fund has warned the world is too comfortable with risk: trade wars, geopolitical tension, huge government deficits and debt. That, with already overpriced assets, increases the chance of a "disorderly" market correction, the organisation says. (Reuters) (Semafor) (Times £)

📣 The Taliban is taking revenge on the Afghans who fought alongside Britain and the UK. After the Taliban takeover of Kabul in 2021, Britain had pledged sanctuary to them – but thousands are still waiting, a delay compounded by “catastrophic” data leaks which leaked their names. The Independent has now verified the killings of more than 100 ex-Afghan forces since 2023 – with one executed in front of his children. (Independent)

• Comment: We have a duty to protect our Afghan allies (Independent)

📣 The US has downplayed claims Hamas is violating the ceasefire deal with Israel by not returning all the bodies of dead hostages. Only nine of the 28 dead hostages have been returned, with Hamas saying it needs time and equipment to recover the others. Israel has threatened to resume fighting if the bodies are not recovered. (BBC) (Guardian)

📣 Plug-in hybrid cars pollute almost as much as petrol cars, research has found. Hybrids are pumping out nearly five times more pollution than official figures show. (Guardian)

📣 Dozens of journalists covering the Pentagon have turned in their badges rather than accept new rules imposed by the Trump administration. The rules would have restricted their ability to report on classified information, and were needed - according to Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth - to regulate a “very disruptive” press. (AP)

SPORT

⚽️ Still no new manager at Ibrox, but Kevin Muscat continues to look like the front-runner, with Neil McCann likely to step in as interim manager while his future boss finishes off his responsibilities in China. Danny Rohl has told Rangers he no longer wishes to be considered for the job (Daily Record)

⚽️ Here’s an extraordinary catch-up with Jonjo Shelvey, the former Newcastle United star who - now aged 33 - is playing in front of tiny crowds in the United Arab Emirates second division. He says he’s content, and not there for the money - that’s tiny, too - but because he doesn’t want to raise his children in England. (BBC)

IDEAS
The problem of asking people what they think

Which’s reviews of car breakdown services shows how even the most careful research can be confounded by apparently irrelevant factors.

🗣️ “If I asked people what they wanted,” goes Henry Ford’s most famous line, “they would have said ‘faster horses’.”

No matter that Henry Ford almost certainly didn’t utter the line, at least according to exhaustive research by one Harvard Business Review author (who implies the line came from a 2002 book on disruption).

For many managers, especially those involved in product development, the general point is held to be true: you can’t trust people to tell you what they want, now and especially in the future - at least, not without very careful preparation.

So many factors can shape their feedback, in subtle ways.

A perfect illustration is offered in this month’s Which? magazine. The consumer mag compares car breakdown cover, ranking Aviva Signature Rescue top with a score of 81% and a coveted “Which Recommended Provider” badge. Bottom of the pile is the poor old RAC, scoring only 48%.

Except… the RAC provides the service rebadged and sold as Aviva Signature Rescue. The same vans, the same people and the same service. Just a different seller and - perhaps crucially - a different price point.

Surprisingly, Aviva’s rebadged service is half the price of its parent provider - £112.82 for the full year’s at-home, nationwide recovery and European cover, versus £224.54 if you go direct to the RAC.

Which?, as you would expect of this most scrupulous of publications, spots the problem and attempts to rationalise it. It’s “a surprise, and not an easy one to explain,” it says in a sidebar.

RAC customers complain about communication and the time it takes for vans to arrive. Customers told researchers they felt “fobbed off” and “stranded” on occasion by the RAC. Aviva “convincingly outperformed” the RAC in terms of wait times and customer score. Yet it’s the same fleet of vans serving both groups (there’s no ringfenced Aviva team).

What may be happening is that RAC customers, aware they’re paying more than for other services, expect a service to match. Aviva customers, knowing they’re getting a (relative) bargain, are happy to wait a bit.

And, the magazine slips in, “factors such as demographics of their customers could also be at play”. That could be code for: older and wealthier RAC clients aren’t prepared to sit and wait to get their car towed. They resent being sold a premium product only to be given a poundshop experience.

The RAC’s problem is borne out by other elements of Which? research. The breakdown services offered by car manufacturers also tend to be “white label” versions of the big names. The AA provides four of the five top car manufacturer breakdown services listed by the magazine. Two of the bottom three? You’ve guessed it: powered by the RAC.

The moral of the story? Beware survey feedback, good or bad. Unless it’s very well done, all manner of factors could be influencing the outcome. And, allied to that, surveys really are no substitute for actually going out, and talking to your customers.

Oh - and move away from the RAC for your breakdown cover.

👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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