TODAY’S WEATHER

🌦️ It’ll be a largely bright day in Glasgow and Edinburgh, although the odds of some rain will increase through the afternoon and into the evening. It should be dry and bright for both Aberdeen and London. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
“Not proven” finally scrapped | Scottish watchdog warns of £2 billion benefits shortfall | Trump pomp

📣 Scotland’s notorious “not proven” verdict will finally be abolished after the Scottish Parliament voted through reforms to the Scottish legal system. Despite a late change of heart by Labour and Conservative MSPs, who voted against the reforms, the proposals were passed in a Holyrood vote yesterday.

It removes the unique third verdict as an option for juries, after decades of campaigning against a verdict frequently branded a “get-out” that allowed the guilty to walk free.

Another big change, intended as a counter-balance, will mean a two-thirds jury majority will be required to secure a guilty verdict, rather than today’s simple majority.

But the reforms have led to concerns from legal experts about potential unintended consequences, including the risk of wrongful conviction. (Daily Record) (Scotsman) (Mail)

📣 The Scottish Government has no plan to plug a £2 billion shortfall created by Scotland’s “less onerous” benefits system, the Auditor General for Scotland has warned.

There’s a particular focus on the Adult Disability Payment: in 2023-24 ministers spent £2.6 billion in Scotland on the benefit, which was £141 million more than the funding provided for it by the UK Government.

The shortfall has been caused by a decision to make applications for the Scottish benefit “less onerous” than in England, and combine that with “light touch” reviews of eligibility.

The higher cost is part of a funding gap for devolved social security spending, which is expected to grow to £2 billion by 2029-30. (The Herald) (The Times £) (Read Audit Scotland’s report)

📣 Donald Trump was treated to what the Mail calls “one of the biggest shows of royal power in decades” as Windsor Castle offered the glittering backdrop to a regal banquet on the first day of his second State visit to the UK. (Mail)

• 🎥 A day of pomp and protests (BBC)

• Day two: From pomp to politics, Trump is to meet Starmer for talks on trade and security as his State visit continues. (BBC)

• Keir Starmer hopes £150bn of US investment in the UK will placate critics of Trump’s visit, as the president “was kept safely within the confines of Windsor Castle” away from thousands of protestors who voiced their anger in London at a “Stop Trump Coalition” protest. (Guardian)

IDEAS
The soaring unpopularity of politicians

🗣️ Journalists writing about popularity ratings should, perhaps, be cautious: we are indulging in work that’s akin to estate agents offering advice on building trust.

But the latest polling from YouGov reminds us… that politicians are, these days, really quite remarkably unpopular. As their figures, above, show us, Prime Minister Keir Starmer languishes with a -50 overall rating - that’s unfavourable, deducted from favourable.

And, in general, the British public’s position appears to be that to know a politician is to dislike them: the more recognised a politician is, the worse their rating, which means that Lib Dem leader Ed Davey (on “only” -6) and Zack Polansky, newly elected leader of the Greens in England and Wales, is on -10. There’s little opportunity for smugness for the two: perhaps the most important part of their ratings are the vast grey area of “don’t knows”.

As George Eaton has pointed out in The New Statesman, when Keir Starmer said - a year ago - his government was “going to have to be unpopular”, it “proved to be one of the Prime Minister’s safer predictions”. He has endured “a decline in popularity that is unprecedented for a new prime minister in modern British politics,” according to analysis by the Guardian.

Globally, few leaders have positive popularity ratings, especially in the West. Donald Trump might bathe in an aura that suggests he is both wildly popular - especially among the MAGA movement that underpins his presidency. In truth, YouGov polling in the US released this week shows him languishing at -18 overall - much better than the major party leaders in the UK, for sure, but well below where he was at the start of the year, and drifting below the levels he enjoyed for much of his first term.

The fact his power appears unchallenged in the US is - in the view of The Economist (£) - as much to do with “servile” Republicans, the slowness of courts (which will likely, eventually, rule many of his decrees illegal) and Democrats who are apparently bewildered by the job of opposition.

We have to travel to India to find a leader with huge popular support. Narendra Modi enjoys a rating of +49, despite a setback in last year’s parliamentary elections, where his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to win a majority (they’ve had some impressive election wins since). Modi might face a big foreign policy challenge as the US, under Trump, embraces its neighbour and rival, Pakistan. But his pursuit of modernisation and centralisation, creating a vast single market, and recent emphasis on the need for self-reliance, proves popular at home.

Back at home, should Keir Starmer and his colleagues look for some comfort, they don’t have to look far: the most unpopular leader tracked by Morning Consult is only across the Channel. Emmanuel Macron of France struggles away with an approval rating - if one can call it that - of -63.

But his unpopularity is both fed by, and feeds, that country’s political paralysis, showing how these numbers are about much more than political egos and the occasional election.

At least he can draw a little comfort from his levels of recognition: only 7% of French respondents say they don’t know.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Hundreds of refugees from across the UK have declared themselves homeless in Glasgow because of Scotland’s more progressive housing rules, it has been revealed, fuelling calls for an urgent review.

The city is under huge pressure over a £66m funding shortfall directly linked to the refugee homelessness crisis. (The Daily Record has the exclusive)

📣 The Libyan accused of building the bomb that brought down a Pan-Am airliner over Lockerbie 36 years ago has claimed he was forced into making a false confession. (BBC)

📣 Human remains, discovered by a member of the public on the shore of Loch Lomond, have been identified as a man reported missing from Glasgow last month. (STV)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 Only a third of the world’s river basins experienced normal conditions last year as the climate crisis drove extremes of drought and flood, sometimes both in the same region, according to climate scientists. (Guardian)

📣 ABC, the US TV network, has suspended Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show indefinitely after comments he made about the killing of far-right activist Charlie Kirk. The remarks by Kimmel, one of America’s best-known comics, led a group of ABC-affiliated stations to say it would not air the show and provoked some ominous comments from a top federal regulator. (AP) (BBC)

• Why America is at a dangerous crossroads after the Charlie Kirk shooting (BBC)

📣 Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte, will present photographic and scientific evidence to a US court to prove Mrs Macron is a woman. The move will come as part of a defamation suit they have taken against right-wing influencer Candace Owens, who has repeatedly claimed that Brigitte Macron was born male. (BBC)\

• France will see one of its biggest strike days in recent years, as trade unions unite to put pressure on new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to rethink budget cuts. (Guardian)

📣 Workers affected by Jaguar Land Rover's cyberattack have been told “to sign up for universal credit,” according to the Unite union, which says its members have been laid off with reduced or zero pay as the company continues a shutdown of its production. (Independent)

SPORT

🏃🏽 Jake Wightman won silver in a thrilling final of the men's 1500m at the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo, pipped at the finish line by Portugal’s Issac Nader. But Josh Kerr's title defence ended in injury and last place, as he hobbled over the line clearly in pain, and well behind the rest of the field. (Scotsman)

⚽️ Anfield was reduced to highly entertaining chaos last night as Liverpool bagged a late winner against Atletico Madrid, with visiting manager Diego Simeone getting a red card for his reaction after Virgil van Dijk’s brilliant header to make it 3-2. (🎥TNT Sports)

⚽️ Rangers have confirmed a host of managerial candidates have thrown their names into the ring in the race to replace beleaguered boss Russell Martin, reports Keith Jackson. But the club insists no talks have taken place. (The Record has the exclusive).

• Martin’s final game as Rangers boss could be against Hibs this weekend, with fan protests planned before the match and chairman Andrew Cavenagh flying into Glasgow for the game. (The Sun)

⚽️ Daizen Maeda may have emptied his Celtic locker, but his teammates believe the star is still entirely committed to the club. (Daily Record)