THE BIG STORIES
“Liberation Day” remains shrouded in uncertainty | Celtic “sorry” for abuse | Val Kilmer dies

📣 It’s Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day”, when he announces tariffs on trade between the US and the rest of the world. Exactly what tariffs, and against which countries, is unclear even at this late hour. It’s thought Trump was only making those decisions yesterday, when he didn’t make any public appearances. Today’s email takes a deeper look at his motivation below.

In the meantime, the early lines are…

• After weeks of White House hype and public anxiety, President Donald Trump will announce a barrage of self-described “reciprocal” tariffs on friend and foe alike. (AP)

• Kier Starmer is offering big US tech firms tax cuts in return for lower Trump tariffs. The Guardian has the exclusive.

• There are three big unknowns ahead of the announcement: how big will the tariffs be, who will they hit, and what will their impact be? (BBC)

📣 Celtic Football Club has settled more than 20 claims of historical abuse at Celtic Boys Club for “a seven-figure sum.” Further settlements are expected in the weeks ahead, drawing to a close - at least in legal terms - an abuse scandal encompassing several coaches and officials that has circled the club for more than three decades. The club said it was “very sorry that these events took place at Celtic Boys Club”. (BBC)

• The Daily Record broke the original stories of abuse in 1996. Today it goes back its former chief reporter, Anna Smith, who writes: “It has taken nearly 30 years for Celtic to do the decent thing.” She says the club knew of allegations at the time, and no amount of money will “make up for the innocence that was stolen from them by fiends like James Torbett and Frank Cairney”. (Daily Record)

📣 The death of Hollywood star Val Kilmer, 65, was announced overnight by his family. He had been battling cancer in recent years. He had starring roles in Batman and Top Gun, but one of his best performances was as Jim Morrison in the 1991 movie, The Doors: Variety recalls how he threw himself into that role, to widespread acclaim. (Variety)

IDEAS
Tariffs: what is Donald Trump trying to do?

🗣️ While the world waits - and braces - for Trump’s “freedom day” tariffs to be announced later today, it’s worth examining what he’s up to, and why.

The US President’s motivation for tariffs is often described in relatively basic terms - he wants power and money, and tariffs give him power and money. While that caricature is broadly accurate, it doesn’t quite describe all he wants to gain from charging widespread levies on imported goods.

With the help of some insightful writing from people far more clever than me, here are three key points that hopefully offer a little more definition.

1. Tariffs are doing a number of jobs for Trump, he thinks. Bloomberg quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his confirmation hearings in January, when he offered a preview of the three ways Trump would use tariffs: to revitalize American industry by protecting it from unfairly-supported foreign competition; to raise revenue for the federal budget, which would pay for tax cuts; and as a lever with foreign powers in place of sanctions, which Trump believes have been overused. This means it’ll be tough to negotiate sanctions away, as Keir Starmer hopes to do: it’s not just about the balance of trade between the US and UK, including factors we just can’t influence. (Bloomberg £)

2. There is an argument for tariffs… an example came in The Wall Street Journal last weekend, where investment manager John Michaelson offered a qualified argument in their favour. tl;dr - Tariffs could help rebalance some of the unfairness of free trade.
   That unfairness can lead not just to entire nations abusing open markets but also to an unfair distribution of the proceeds of trade that is concentrated on elites, not workers. That’s why at least one leading union member in the US has swung behind Trump (WSJ).
   But even this “pro” argument is heavily qualified. To really work, tariffs need to be planned and executed carefully. Businesses need long-term certainty so they can rebuild their supply chains to take advantage of the new world. They are a “dangerous tool” that must be “used carefully,” writes Michaelson. The warning is left implied. (The Wall Street Journal £)

3. In reality, it’s hard to find anyone who thinks this will go well, even from sources not necessarily ideologically opposed to Trump. Wall Street’s biggest banks are watching their share prices slide, and their own economists say the chances of a recession this year have more or less doubled since Trump took power, to around 40%. In a leader, The Economist says “Liberation Day” today is “setting the country up for slower economic growth, higher inflation, more inequality and, quite possibly, fiscal trouble.” (Economist £)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 First Minister John Swinney will face questions in parliament this week over Scotland’s soaring bill for jails, after the Herald reported the costs of keeping prisoners locked up has doubled in ten years. (The Herald)

📣 Two men remain in hospital after a fire at an industrial estate in North Lanarkshire yesterday afternoon. (BBC)

📣 A watchdog has found Police Scotland was wrong to dismiss a complaint from Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser after it was recorded he had committed a “hate incident” for comparing non-binary people to those who self-identify as cats.

📣 A Scottish tourist has died nine days after an explosion destroyed his B&B in Rome. Grant Paterson, 54, from East Kilbride, had suffered burns in the gas explosion. (STV)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 Israel has stepped up its military effort in Gaza, with a spokesman saying this morning that large areas of the enclave would be seized and added to the security zones of Israel. (Reuters)

📣 Twenty-three more women have contacted the Metropolitan Police to say they may have also been attacked by serial rapist Zhenhao Zou, who was convicted last month of raping three women in London and seven in China between 2019 and 2024. (Guardian)

📣 Polling says six in 10 people are unhappy with the NHS, which is the biggest level of dissatisfaction with the service since polling on the subject began in 1983. (Independent)

📣 Two interesting political moments in the US overnight, away from events in Washington: Democrats held on to their majority on Wisconsin’s state supreme court, while Republicans retained two seats - but with lower margins than previous elections. The Wisconsin race had seen a huge investment from Elon Musk, supporting the Republicans. (Semafor)

📣 US irritation with Russia is growing with officals now admitting a speedy peace deal in Ukraine is unlikely to happen. Senators are calling for tougher sanctions against Russia, while Germany warns against indulging Putin’s “stalling tactics”. (The Independent)

SPORT

⚽️ Scottish football is eyeing league reconstruction once more, with four options emerging that include maintaining the current 12-team structure, reducing the number of clubs to 10 or expanding the top flight to a 14 or 16-team league. A working group is looking through the options, according to multiple reports today.

These things make global trade talks seem simple: any change needs the backing of 11 out of 12 Premiership clubs plus 75% of the Premiership and Championship clubs, combined, and 75% of the 42 SPFL clubs combined in order to pass. (The Scotsman)

• The Herald claims the top flight is shooting for a smaller, 10-team league and no spring “split”. (The Herald)