In your briefing today:

📣 Scotland’s GERS figures - our national spending and revenue report - is out, marking the beginning of the annual bunfight over what this year’s figures show, and what the numbers mean overall.

We know Scotland continues to enjoy much higher levels of public spending, per head of population, than other parts of the UK - a record £2,720 per person more, this year. There is a vast shortfall between that and revenue raised, equivalent to 10.9% of Scottish GDP. But that percentage has dropped, year on year.

Then, the politics: whether this means nothing at all about the prospects for an independent Scotland, or is an illustration of the “union dividend”, or something in between, is a matter of interpretation… and politics. (Daily Record)

📣 How was the eclipse for you? Some were left disappointed by clouds which obscured views in parts of Scotland, but plenty saw something, and I nabbed this shot in Edinburgh just at the maximal point around 7.08pm. It was not accompanied by any banging of pans, hysteria or sacrifice, at least in Corstorphine.

📣 Nigel Farage goes up against Count Binface today in the Clacton by-election: Farage is expected to win against Binface and a record 34 other candidates, although none from the major parties are standing against Farage. The Reform UK leader quit amid scrutiny of his personal finances. (Independent) (AP)

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📣 Deputy First Minister Jenny Gilruth has insisted Nicola Sturgeon is still an “asset” for the SNP, despite the criticism surrounding the former First Minister. (Mail)

📣 The future of Dundee airport is in doubt after Logainair announced it is ending its services from the city - including to Heathrow - in the autumn. (Daily Business)

📣 A Japanese musician has had to cancel performances at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe after her instruments were stolen from the venue. (BBC)

📣 A benefits cheat has been given an unlikely 500 years to repay the £28,000 she stole. (Daily Record)

📣 A minister accused by his wife during a service of having an affair with a parishoner has been suspended by the Church of Scotland. (Sun has the exclusive)

📣 Russian strikes on dozens of grain ships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are endangering global food supplies. (New York Times)

📣 Temperatures in parts of England will soar has high as 38C today, sparking an amber warning for extreme heat. (BBC)

📣 Rural groups claim rewilding has made Britain’s countryside a tinderbox (Mail)

📣 The US hard left has faltered after recent progress, demonstrated by an unexpected loss in a Wisconsin primary, and a narrower-than-expected win in Michigan. (WSJ)

📣 Another day, another claim against former Cambridge professor Jason Arday: his claim he was “non-verbal” is being questioned by former school pals, who recall him as “always cracking jokes”. (Guardian)

⚽️ It’s a big night for Scottish clubs in Europe - with some big reputations on the line.

⚽️ Celtic have made a “stunning” signing with the capture of Egypt World Cup star Haissem Hassan, for a fee that could hit almost £10 million. (Sun)

⚽️ Who’s going to be the next Scotland manager? Roberto Martinez was in the running but has now dropped out, with salary being one stumbling block. (Scotsman)

🗣️ Officials and economists insist: the annual GERS figures - that tally of Scottish (and Scottish-related) spending and income - don’t tell us anything about how the finances of an independent Scotland would look. That’s contrary to my rather bald assertion yesterday - apologies, as that (at least) should have been caveated.

Nor does it point out how our economy is doing - lots of other numbers do that for us, points out the Fraser of Allander Institute in a helpful introduction to the GERS numbers.

So what do the numbers tell us? The very top line is that public expenditure by, or on behalf of, Scotland was £25.3 billion more than Scotland raised in revenue. That’s equivalent to 10.9% of Scotland’s GDP, when including a geographical share of North Sea revenues.

This is an improvement, year on year: last year it was a bigger gap of £26 billion, or 12% of GDP. Scotland’s net fiscal balance has improved by 0.6 percentage points of GDP over the past year.

The Institute offers further depth in its guide to the numbers. “Historically, much of the difference has been on the expenditure side. Public spending per person is higher in Scotland than the UK average, reflecting, among other things, the operation of the Barnett formula for devolved spending and higher spending in some reserved areas, including social security.”

The Institute does not delve into why that is so.

Other commentators feel less obliged to hedge - not least because, historically, these numbers haven’t always told the same story, and when they’ve pointed the other way - points out Alex Massie in today’s Times - they were used to paint a picture of a Scotland that was more prosperous than the rest of the UK.

“For a handful of years after the great financial crash of 2008,” writes Massie, “the numbers worked in Scotland’s favour. That is, Scotland’s notional deficit was about the same, and sometimes actually lower, than the United Kingdom’s actual deficit.

“[Alex] Salmond boasted that Scotland more than paid its way and this showed that independence would simultaneously be a land of no great change where everything was also arranged in vastly better and more comfortable ways,” he writes.

Now the numbers are reversed, “the official line emanating from the government is that although Gers was predictive in 2014 when, if you squinted, the numbers just about worked, Gers tells us nothing about life after independence now that anyone can see the numbers don’t work at all. This is politics, but it is also risible.

“In the very long run, sure, Gers tells us little. But these numbers do show the broad starting point, which is that of a country living far beyond its means.”

Echoing that point, Scottish Conservatives chairman Craig Hoy says in the Mail that “the 2025-26 report delivers a devastating blow to the First Minister and his lifelong dream of breaking Scotland away from the United Kingdom.”

Hamish Morrison - writing in The National (£) - would disagree. “There are some in the independence movement who question why the Scottish Government publishes the numbers at all,” he notes, “though others say that these exercises are important for transparency and credibility.

Political economist William Thomson, founder of the Resilient Economy think tank, notes that Derek Mackay, finance secretary back in 2020, proposed to set out an “economic case for independence” (£) alongside the GERS figures. He left office in disgrace, and the plan never materialised.

But Thomson’s case also has its caveats. He co-authored a paper last year which said that, for an independent Scotland to meet the EU’s target of the deficit of 3% of GDP, there would be painful public spending cuts “on a par with the austerity imposed on Greece during the Eurozone crisis,” he told The National.

“We need to start to own this,” he says. “We need to start to own a deficit because it’s really easy to argue: the Government’s not invested enough in Scotland for 60, 70, 80 years.

“If you want to be taxed more, then jump up and down but if you want spending and you want some [private sector] savings, then you need a deficit.”

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