THE BIG STORIES
Germany turns right – but not hard right

📣 Conservatives have won the German elections with the man likely to be the next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, starting the difficult task of building a coalition government this morning.

The far-right AfD surged to second place, doubling their vote and celebrating the first time since the Second World War a far-right party had gone so far. But were frustrated in not being able to do better, and they will now be frozen out of coalition discussions consistent with the long-standing German “firewall” consensus against far-right parties gaining any power.

• Germany’s Conservatives celebrate, but far right enjoy record result (BBC)

• “Next time we’ll come first” claims AfD (Reuters)

• Analysis: Will Germany restore its role as a bold leader of the EU? (Guardian)

• Today’s Early Line has deeper analysis of what happened, and what it means, below ⬇️

📣 Sir Keir Starmer has promised £200m investment for Grangemouth following the closure of the oil refinery with the loss of more than 400 jobs. Speaking at the Labour Party conference in Glasgow, he said the Grangemouth site presented a “huge opportunity for renewal”. (BBC)

📣 Scotland will likely miss its net zero climate targets by a huge margin unless it dramatically increases its spending on various means to soak up CO2 emissions, including new forests, peatland restoration and expensive machinery. The Guardian has the exclusive.

IDEAS
Unpacking Germany’s election results

🗣️ The German elections yesterday were being closely watched: the country’s size, economic power and central importance to Europe means they always matter. But the timings of this election, in the middle of a global, rightward realignment of politics, combined with Germany’s history, has meant the results have been even more closely watched.

So what happened yesterday, then? The quote, above, from The Economist neatly sums up the situation this morning. Only two groups, very different ideologically, are happy with the outcome.

• The AfD is the hard-right party with strength across the old East Germany, co-led by Alice Weidel. They got 21% of the vote, having been expected to get around 20%, and will double their Bundestag representation. But they will be a little disappointed they didn’t go further. The AfD started as an anti-Euro party, but today is “unequivocally” far right: xenophobic in its nationalism, anti-Russian sanctions, and socially highly conservative. The Conversation has a helpful primer.

• Die Linke is a hard-left party that won 9% of the vote in a late surge of support, largely from younger voters outraged at the rise of the far right. That’ll mean it will become a part of coalition talks - which could be sticky, given…

The opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), once the conservative party of Angela Merkel, and their sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU), won a clear if underwhelming victory on 29% of the vote. Their candidate for chancellor now is Friedrich Merz, a veteran German politician although one with zero experience in a ministerial job. He needs now to try and form a likely three-way coalition, a job he’d hoped the electorate wouldn’t ask him to do. This will all take weeks.

We can expect a focus on (less) immigration, (more) defence spending and a cutting of red tape in an attempt to revive German industry. Politico has a good sector-by-sector guide to where things are likely to go.

What should be clear, however, is that the CDU is a mainstream party, with mainstream plans. There will be no Trump-style shock in German politics. It will have to form a coalition, but not with the AfD, which it has promised to freeze out. Instead, it will look leftwards for partners.

And all that means Germany has moved to the right, yes, but by no means has it lurched to the authoritarian right like the US, despite the best efforts of Elon Musk. That will come as a huge relief to Germany’s partners around Europe.

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The City of Glasgow is now £1.6 billion in debt with an overspend of £80m just in the last three years. The news comes as part of The Herald’s focus on the future of the city. (The Herald)

📣 Staff at Dundee University have begun three weeks of strike action over plans to cut jobs amid a financial crisis at the University. (BBC)

📣 The Scottish Government has approved a legal aid application for a private prosecution of disgraced footballer David Goodwillie, for rape. (STV)

AROUND THE UK

📣 Sir Keir Starmer and President Macron of France have been swapping notes: they plan to deliver a united message on Ukraine when they meet Donald Trump, separately, this week. Macron goes first, today, with Starmer due in Washington on Wednesday. (The Times £)

• Sir Anthony Seldon: How Starmer can stand up to Trump in Washington (Independent)

📣 Britain faces a “tsunami” of pharmacy closures as a cash crisis bites, with stagnant funding combining with Rachel Reeves’ budget measures to force many to the brink, chemists are warning. (The Independent)

📣 British Gas is, again, Britain’s worst energy supplier for customer service according to Which?, the consumer group. The company slipped across all satisfaction measures over the last year, despite an overall industry-wide improvement. (Guardian)

• British Gas owner Centrica saw its shares up 3% on Friday as analysts “commended” the firm’s full-year results. (Proactive)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 Pope Francis remained in a critical condition this morning as he continues to battle pneumonia and a lung infection. Blood tests also showed “initial, mild, kidney failure” which was under control. “The prognosis remains guarded,” doctors said. (AP)

🌎 Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to resign if it meant peace in Ukraine, saying he could exchange his departure for the country’s membership of NATO.

🌎 FBI staff have been told to ignore Elon Musk’s demands they “list their achievements” as he continues his drive to cut federal spending. (The Guardian)

• Jeremy Bowen: Ukraine’s extinction nightmare has returned (BBC)

SPORT

⚽️ A grim 2-0 defeat at home to St Mirren was Philippe Clement’s final act as Rangers manager, the Ibrox club finally sacking the Belgian last night. He leaves after 16 months in charge, with the side 13 points off Celtic in the league, out of the Scottish Cup and with only the Europa League as a bright spot. Rangers face José Mourinho’s Fenerbahçe in the round of 16 next month. It’s not clear if a permanent manager will be in place by then.

• Barry Ferguson, who last managed Alloa, will get the caretaker job, claims the Daily Record.

• The Herald doesn’t name Ferguson in its list of four other “realistic” interim managers… (The Herald)

🏉 Scotland’s defeat at Twickenham was tough: Gregor Townsend offered his support to Finn Russell after the latter’s poor afternoon with his boot, culminating in his last-gasp miss of a tricky conversion which sank Scotland’s chances of a memorable fifth win in a row. (The Scotsman)

• Scottish player ratings (The Offside Line)