TODAY’S WEATHER

🌤️ It’ll be sunny with a little cloud in Glasgow and Edinburgh, but more overcast in Aberdeen. London will be hot. (Here’s the UK forecast).

THE BIG STORIES
Trump: Putin “won’t mess around with me” | Scottish rivers run low | JK Rowling unleashes Sturgeon review

📣 Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin later today, with the US President convinced his Russian counterpart is ready to make a deal on the war in Ukraine. Putin “won’t mess around with me” at the talks at a military base in Alaska, Trump asserted. (Guardian)

• “Exhausted” Ukrainians fear an unjust peace, forced on them by negotiations to which they are not invited. (BBC)

• Trump and Putin head to Anchorage with “clashing objectives”. (🎁WSJ - gift link)

• The head of British armed forces says “Russia is weak” and Nato allies need to demonstrate confidence and not be cowed by Putin. (Telegraph)

📣 Several Scottish rivers are close to having “critically low” levels of water, according to the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. The River Don and Firth of Tay are two weeks away from a “significant” problem. The problem has been building all year, after the driest start to the year in six decades. (BBC)

• The warning came hours before heavy downpours caused flooding in Dundee and mudslides in Aberdeenshire. That rain doesn’t do much for the rivers: the ground is so dry, rain is not absorbed into the ground. (BBC)

📣 Author JK Rowling finally unleashed her review of Nicola Sturgeon’s memoir, Frankly… and didn’t hold back. The Harry Potter author penned the review for her own website and - like Sturgeon’s book - it’s a post-mortem on Sturgeon’s political career, covering the 2014 referendum, her rise to First Minister, Covid and - of course - the gender ID row which has partly come to define her time as First Minister.

“She’s caused real, lasting harm by presiding over and encouraging a culture in which women have been silenced, shamed, persecuted and placed in situations that are degrading and unsafe, all for not subscribing to her own luxury beliefs,” writes Rowling.

“And so to the three hundred thousand pound question: is Frankly a good read? Honestly, only if you find Nicola Sturgeon so fascinating the dull details of her political decision-making intrigue you, and are prepared to accept all her special pleading.” (JKRowling.com)

• Sturgeon asked to be judged on reducing Scottish education’s attainment gap - we must conclude she failed. (Record)

• I don’t owe women an apology, says Sturgeon (STV)

IDEAS FROM THE WEEKLY MAGAZINES
Is Zelensky a liability? | Trump’s failed dealmaking | Europe abandons free movement | Nerdy football

🗣️ Given events later today in Alaska, Matthew Parris asks a pertinent question: is Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky a liability for the West, and for his own country? Parris’s theory is straightforward: it’s been clear “for years” that the war with Russia must end in compromise, and that compromise must offer Russia “a ladder to climb down and this must involve land”. In return, Ukraine gets “an unshakeable place in the community of European democracies, with the military and economic guarantees from the West that make that place secure.”

Parris has his doubts that Zelensky, whose wartime stubbornness has made him a hero to so many, will agree. Indeed, he may find his own resolve infuriates the US as support for Ukraine “begins to fray”. Europe needs to stop encouraging Zelensky to dig his heels in, he says. (The Spectator (£))

🗣️The Economist says Donald Trump’s “capricious dealmaking” destabilises the world. It divides his efforts into three categories: high, medium and low stakes.

At the high end, “America’s relations with unfriendly great powers, principally China and Russia”. Wins here would bring “potentially staggering” returns.

In the medium stakes fall the likes of Brazil, South Africa and India. The trouble is, here, “they are unwilling to be bossed around, and take offence when Mr Trump insults or tries to bully them,” the newspaper notes.

Then there are the small stakes negotiations - a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, for example, or the truce between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda.

On the small stakes stuff, he’s had a welcome impact, says the Economist. On the medium stakes efforts, not so much. And on the big stakes, he’s floundering.

We’ll learn this weekend if a win is anywhere near possible. It would be his “greatest-ever deal, ending Europe’s worst war since 1945”. Just don’t hold your breath. (Economist)

🗣️ Europe is “giving up” on free movement, writes Lisa Haseldine, haunted by three words uttered by then German Chancellor Angela Merkel: ‘Wir schaffen das’ - ‘We can handle it’ - which ushered in a new era of uncontrolled mass migration, not only for Germany but all of Europe, thanks to its porous internal borders and freedom of movement. “In retrospect it was pretty much the most disastrous government policy of this century anywhere in Europe,” one senior British diplomat tells her.

“A decade later, that gleaming foundational principle of the EU – the freedom to move between member states uninhibited – has been put on hold, perhaps indefinitely,” writes Haseldine, following more than 7.5 million asylum claims since Merkel’s statement. (Spectator)

🗣️The Premier League kicks off tonight, and it’s becoming nerdier, driven in part by fantasy football enthusiasts obsessing over expected goals, assists, defensive actions and more, as they pick fantasy teams to win points in competitions against friends.

But the sport itself has also embraced data, with Liverpool’s embrace of quantitative analysis “often credited for enabling them to compete with petrostate-owned Manchester City”. (The excellent book, How To Win The Premier League, explains what happened, in appropriately nerdy detail).

The data obsession has also spawned an industry of experts who charge for access to propriatory data tables and advice. “Last season, when asked if Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood might be a good choice for an upcoming week, one [fantasy football] expert replied: ‘Not when his wife is eight and a half months pregnant.’” (Economist)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 Edinburgh City Council says Scottish Government guidance on single-sex spaces is unlawful. The Government has yet to offer updated guidance on toilet and changing room facilities after the Supreme Court judgement on the legal definition of “sex”, handed down in April. (The Scotsman has the exclusive)

📣 Angus Robertson has insisted the Scottish Government is committed to freedom of speech in the arts after a backlash over decisions to censor books and individuals at publicly-funded institutions. The National Library of Scotland and Fringe venue Summerhall have both faced criticism this week over their stances. (The Herald (£) has the exclusive)

• Andrew Learmonth: How my festival interview with Kate Forbes ended up at the heart of a festivals censorship row (Herald (£))

📣 US Vice President JD Vance was spotted playing golf at Trump Turnberry, after being heckled by protestors banging pots and pans. (Express)

AROUND THE UK & WORLD

📣 The world marks the 80th anniversary of VJ Day today with King Charles promising those who fought and died in the Pacific and Far East “shall never be forgotten”. A national two-minute silence will be held at noon today. (BBC)

• Japan will pay tribute to more than three million war dead, but concern is growing that collective memory of the tragedy of war - and of Japanese militarism - are fading. (AP)

📣 Child sexual exploitation is “not in scope” of a new strategy aiming to reduce violence against women and girls. Campaigners say they’re shocked by the omission. (Sky News has the exclusive)

📣 Israel looks likely to approve a controversial settlement project which will split the occupied West Bank in half. Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said the plan would “bury the idea of a Palestinian state”. (Guardian)

📣 The COP30 climate conference planned for November in Brazil is facing a fight for credibility, months before it starts, with many delegations either planning to stay away or send only token groups because of soaring hotel costs, limited flight options and political apathy. (Semafor)

SPORT

⚽️ The UEFA Conference League qualifiers brought drama and contrasting fortunes to fans of Hibs and Dundee United.

• In Edinburgh, Hibs pulled off a dramatic extra-time victory over FK Partizan to take them one tie away from European league football this season. But they’d contrived to throw away their 2-0 lead thanks to two howlers from goalkeeper Jordan Smith before Kieron Bowie scored an extraordinary 40-yarder to inspire his side to an extra-time win. (Record) (🎥 Highlights)

• In Dundee, it was a classic with a cruel ending, writes Alan Pattullo. “Not even the most optimistic United supporter could have foreseen being two goals in front at half-time against Rapid Vienna. It felt too good to be true, it was too good – eventually,” he says. They lost on penalties. (Scotsman)

⚽️ The English Premier League kicks off tonight: Champions Liverpool get things going against Bournemouth at Anfield (8pm, Sky Sports Main Event).

📣 The Party Line, this newsletter’s weekend supplement dispatched at 8am every Saturday, gives you all the key TV fixtures over the weekend, alongside the big TV moments and film releases, and six things to talk and think about with your friends. Upgrade to unlock yours.