Can Reeves deliver growth?

PLUS: A big night in the Champions League for Celtic, Manchester City and others...

👋 Good morning! It’s Wednesday 29 January 2025, and I’m Neil McIntosh, editor of The Early Line. It’s great to have you here.

Sent from Edinburgh every weekday at 7am, The Early Line brings you essential news and thought-provoking views on Scotland, the UK, and the world. Understand your world, free of pop-ups and clickbait. Forwarded this by a friend? Join The Early Line at earlyline.co - it’ll cost you nothing.

☀️ Today’s weather: No need for waterproofs today: it’ll be a bright winter’s day in Glasgow and Edinburgh with little chance of rain. Aberdeen will start off wet - your commute maybe damp - but it’ll get better later. London, which has been miserable the last few days, also finally brightens and dries out. (Here’s the UK forecast).

And here’s all you need to know this morning:

THE BIG STORIES
Rachel Reeves’ big moment arrives

📣 Rachel Reeves delivers that heavily-flagged speech today outlining her plans for economic growth.

You might think you’ve heard all its major points already, but there’s a new one today: a plan for “Europe’s Silicon Valley” - a ribbon of development between Oxford and Cambridge with thousands of new homes, transport links and infrastructure. Glasgow will also feature in another investment plan.

The speech is seen as vital both in practical terms - this is Reeves chance to explain how the UK achieves that elusive growth - but also to shift the miserable tone that’s dogged this government for more than six months. (Guardian)

  • The Prime Minister takes aim at bureaucracy and regulation today in an article for The Times. He promises to end “vexatious legal challenges” and “endless consultations”. “Deregulation is now essential for realising Labour ambitions,” he writes. (The Times)

  • “Rachel Reeves the miserabilist is gone: Long live the sunny rebrand of Britain’s top finance minister” - Politico previews today’s speech (Politico)

  • Today’s speech will also confirm plans to expand Heathrow airport, an issue on which the Labour party is divided. The Spectator helpfully-not-helpfully lists those Labour MPs who previously objected: it includes several ministers, including Ed Miliband and… one Keir Starmer. They’ve changed their minds. (The Spectator)

  • Reeves will announce plans to allow companies to access surpluses in their pension schemes, which could unlock up to £100 billion for investment (Sky News)

  • Is Rachel Reeves doing a good or bad job as Chancellor? YouGov’s latest polling shows how sentiment among voters has soured since last summer. (YouGov)

📣 A waste disposal company will be able to sue the Scottish Government for £160m over the failed deposit return scheme. Lorna Slater, the minister charged with delivering DRS, offered few regrets yesterday over the project, saying Scotland’s decision to attempt to launch the scheme without waiting for the wider UK “absolutely made sense”. (The Scotsman)

📣 Several people were feared dead after a stampede in India, at the massive Mah Kumbh Hindu festival. The crush took place between 1am and 2am this morning, local time: the cause is not yet clear, and total casualties have yet to be confirmed. (AP)

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IDEAS
What to make of Britain’s soaring population

Against the backdrop of a housing crisis, sky-high NHS waiting lists, widespread council bankruptcies and Britain’s dismal growth prospects, news of more migration-driven population growth has prompted concern today.”

🗣️ The Times says migration is no problem… if those who arrive are “the brightest and the best”. The increase in the UK’s population to 72.5m by 2032 will be seen by some as a blessing, others as a curse. “Who is right depends not on raw numbers but on the quality of people being let in to the country, the adequacy of plans to cater for them and the measures in place to control and monitor admissions. At the moment the public are unconvinced on these points,” the papers says in a leader. (The Times)

🗣️ The Telegraph’s Annabel Denham articulates the public’s lack of confidence. “The breadth of diversity in this country is staggering, she writes. Contrasting newer immigrants with the Windrush generation, she asks: “How do you imbue mutual obligation, a sense of common purpose and solidarity with such massive cultural divergence?” Denham says “few dare ask.” “One of the great inconsistencies in the multiculturalism debate is that we must celebrate our newly dynamic, vibrant society while simultaneously accepting that our shared values remain unchanged.” (The Telegraph)

🗣️The Scotsman says Scotland needs its own migrant visa scheme to address its particular population challenges, which are more pronounced than in England and Wales. But the paper reflects that it’s unlikely to happen: Westminster is unlikely to want to hand more powers to Holyrood. (The Scotsman)

AROUND SCOTLAND

📣 The victims of a child abuse ring were failed by authorities, the Scottish Government said. At Holyrood, Alba MSP Ash Regan said the case “reeked of institutional failures”. Children’s minister Natalie Don said “There is no getting away from the fact that these children were failed.” (STV)

📣 Police Scotland says it’s not to blame for any delay to the Operation Branchform investigation. (The Herald)

📣 Dundee MSP Joe FitzPatrick will not be standing for re-election in next year’s election. The former councillor first won his Dundee West seat for the SNP in 2007. (BBC)

AROUND THE UK

📣 MPs have voiced doubts NHS managers in England and Wales have what it takes to reform the service. In a hard-hitting report, they’ve said the approach to NHS finances is “typified by short-termism”, there is “a lack of readiness amongst senior health officials to take the radical steps needed” and they are “addicted to moving money from capital to revenue to cover day-to-day pressures”. The committee chair, Tory MP Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, said he and colleagues were “aghast” at the “complacency displayed”. (Read the report) (The Independent)

📣 Lord Peter Mandelson will be the next British ambassador to the US after weeks of intrigue over whether he’d be accepted by the Trump administration. (The Independent claims the exclusive)

📣 16 climate activists will appeal against their sentences today after they were handed long jail terms for nonviolent protests. (Guardian)

AROUND THE WORLD

🌎 Two million US government employees are being offered enhanced terms to quit their jobs as part of the Trump administration’s drive to cut the size of the Federal government. (Reuters)

🌎 The Louvre might be the world’s most-visited museum - but it’s also losing money and is falling to bits. French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a plan for its revival, which will include charging non-EU residents more to visit, and moving the Mona Lisa to a new home - which will be charged separately. (BBC)

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

💰 The real DeepSeek revelation: The market doesn’t understand AI: if DeepSeek, the Chinese-made AI model that’s wiped billions from stock markets this week, really is the AI industry’s “Sputnik moment” then a Sputnik-era response is required: investment and bold bets. The market reactions did everything to discourage this, writes Reed Albergotti. (Semafor)

💰 Starbucks has the sort of conundrum many companies would love: they’ve introduced a new feature (mobile ordering) which has wrecked their customer service and ambiance. Unveiling better than expected results yesterday, new CEO Brian Niccol said the company would use an algorithm to improve efficiency behind the counter, and better sequence the orders flooding in. It’ll do nothing for the coffee, though. (Reuters)

SPORT

⚽️ It’s the final matchday of the Champions League league stage, and a good night to settle down in front of the TV. Naysayers thought (and some still claim) the Swiss formula stage, where all the teams are in one big league and play a sample of sides, would be a disaster, leading to a volley of boring dead rubber games. The first experience of it has been far from that: big sides struggling to stay in, minnows flourishing, some cracking ties.

Here’s a summary of the big games involving British sides.

  • Celtic have done very well: they know they stay in the competition even before they take to the pitch in Birmingham against Aston Villa. If many things went right, a win could catapult them into the top eight, who get automatic progress to the last 16. That’s unlikely, though, even with a win.

  • Aston Villa, one point ahead of Celtic, are also assured of progress to the playoffs at least, and have a better chance of making that last 16 spot should they win this week’s battle of Britain.

  • Manchester City may be the biggest casualties of the round: they could fall out of Europe entirely if they fail to beat Club Brugge at home. Their visitors will be no pushovers: this is the game of the night for the TV fan.

  • Liverpool are the only British side with the luxury of knowing they’re through to the last 16. Their game against PSV is meaningless (although not for their hosts). The reds have nine first team players out.

  • Arsenal are in Italy, in Gerona, and only a disastrous defeat would see their progress to the last 16 halted. That scale of defeat is not going to happen.

All tonight’s games are on TNT Sports, at 8pm.

👍 That’s your Early Line for the day

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