In your briefing today:

📣 Keir Starmer has called an emergency Cobra meeting for today amid warnings the UK faces a 1970s-style “energy shock” as oil and gas deliveries from the Gulf dry up. The Prime Minister told business leaders the country needed a “joint effort” to tackle the impact of the war, saying the Government “can’t do it on its own”. (LBC)

📣 An Iranian drone has hit a full oil tanker off the Dubai coast, setting it on fire, as the intensity of the war started by the US and Israel against Iran continues unabated. (AP)

📣 BBC star Scott Mills was investigated by police in 2016 over allegations involving a teenage boy. The presenter, who has been sacked as BBC Radio 2’s breakfast presenter, was interviewed under caution at the time, but the case was dropped for a lack of evidence. (The Mirror has the exclusive)

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📣 The first of four new CalMac ships built in Turkey enters service later today - but the services is still in crisis, the operator says. (BBC)

📣 John Swinney is promising to improve the NHS’s performance - and is expected to be in Dundee today, where he’ll say the SNP’s plan for the health service “is working”. (Holyrood)

📣 A £1 billion-a-year childcare programme has failed to deliver the promised benefits to children, Scottish Government analysis has found. (Times)

📣 Scotland is “sleepwalking into austerity” with plans to cut nearly 20,000 jobs by the end of the decade, a think tank report has warned. (The Herald has the exclusive)

📣 Vulnerable young people in the Highlands are at growing risk of being exploited by drugs gangs, a charity has claimed. (BBC)

📣 Keir Starmer has given doctors in England 48 hours to call off a strike or face losing a jobs package that would have created 1,000 new training places. He makes the threat in an op-ed in The Times today. (BBC)

📣 Millions of drivers will get an average of £830 over the car finance mis-selling scandal. (STV)

📣 Israel will impose the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks, in a move described as discriminatory by European countries and rights groups. (Guardian)

📣 The countdown has begun for the first manned moon mission in more than 50 years. Artemis II will fly around the moon in a 10-day mission, due to take off tomorrow. (Sky News)

⚽️ Scotland play the Ivory Coast at Everton’s ground in Liverpool tonight: officially the away team in a friendly against the African side, intended to prepare Steve Clarke’s men for their World Cup tie against Morocco. It’ll be a much-changed side, says the Scotland manager, who also plans to use all 55 places available in his interim World Cup squad, to be announced at the start of May. (BBC)

⚽️ Spurs are talking to Roberto de Zerbi, the former Brighton manager, about their vacant managerial job. (BBC)

🗣️ The cries over the last few days have become louder and louder: we’re heading for a shock, they say, because of the war in the Middle East.

A combination of Iran’s effective closure of the Hormuz Strait and the disruption to production caused by Iran’s missiles has reduced the world’s oil supply by 16-20%, the biggest cut the world has ever faced. That can only lead to a 1970s-style oil shock, they say.

What would that mean? The BBC reminds us of oil rationing back then, caused by Arab oil producers placing an embargo on oil exports. That caused inflation, sent prices soaring, sparked strikes and caused unrest. The UK and the US entered recession between 1973 and 1975, with the crisis contributing to the downfall of Ted Heath’s government in 1974.

We live in a different world today. Global oil use might have steadily increased over the years. But, in the UK, we use far less oil than we used to: from a peak of 2.2 million barrels per day in 1973 to around 1.3 million today. Transport - road and aviation - are the big users.

That’s why some economists think that, while oil shocks are bad news, a 2020s version won’t be as bad as the 1970s.

We’ll still feel something, though. The only real question is about the extent of the impact.

Bloomberg has produced a terrific feature on the oil shock that’s now, they say, heading west. “The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation,” it says, having spoken to dozens of oil traders, executives and more in recent days.

“Fuel crunches hitting Asia will soon start spreading west, they said. Europe is likely to face surging prices to secure cargoes and is at risk of diesel shortages in the coming weeks.”

If the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, the world will need to adapt by reducing oil and gas consumption. We’ll have to fly, drive and spend much less.

There are suggestions the UK may find it particularly tough. The International Monetary Fund has warned the UK, along with Italy, was “especially exposed” to higher oil and gas prices because of its reliance on gas-fired electricity generation. Some economists also say the UK’s capped utility prices and inflation-protected public-sector wages make it less able to roll with the punches thrown by a troublesome global economy.

Of the immediate crisis, we’re not feeling it just yet because the last supplies still haven't arrived. It takes weeks for ships to sail across the world, meaning the ships pulling into ports now left before the crisis got going.

Problems, in the UK, begin next week, say some estimates: that’s when the last ships unload. And the last known shipment of jet fuel to the UK from the Middle East arrives later this week, reports the FT.

Asia has gone first - it is more heavily and immediately dependent on oil from the Gulf. In Pakistan, cricket fans have been told to watch games from home to save fuel. In Australia, there are fuel shortages at filling stations, and the government is planning for the worst-case scenario. Some oil exporters - including China - have curbed the amounts leaving the country.

The government is, for now, urging us all to continue as normal: to book our summer holidays, and resist the temptation to panic, or hoard, or otherwise change our behaviour. Some may hear an echo of the Covid era, however, and want to start planning accordingly: consumer confidence was already low, mortgage rates are creeping up, and inflation will likely make us all feel a little poorer.

Whatever the day-to-day events in the Gulf, and whatever Donald Trump decides to do next, in the weeks and months ahead, it’s now inevitable we’ll feel the shock, slowly radiating out from the warm waters of the Gulf. Only an early abatement of hostilities will ease the impact.

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